NZ Weather Forum

Looks like this incoming belt of westerlies will dominate our climate over the next week with below than mean temperatures across NZ and periods of heavy rain to the west of NZ as the cold fronts come due.

Wind will be swinging around about in the westerly quarter and rise to gale most of the time, especially Auckland/Taranaki/Bay of Plenty when there's a rainy NW'erly

GFS Forecasted rainfall amounts from this W belt:
Auckland: 40mm
Tauranga: 37mm
Hamilton: 70mm
New Plymouth: 79mm
Greymouth: 67mm

Cheers any comments?

Like last year looks as when the forecasters open their traps saying warm spring on the way it turns to custard.The last 4 Octobers(and Novembers have been cold and wet and windy.Used to go swimming in October but its not now

Foggy Hamilton wrote:
Cheers any comments?

any comments?

Friday could be an interesting day in the west with very unstable squally conditions.

October generaly you get some warm NW winds....wind originating off australia, with a high to the north and east of us...
i.e october is usualy a jump in temperature from sepember....but maybe not this year...
if you can get out of the wind, and in the afternoon sun...it wont be too bad...up this way at least

good to get the rain...after such a dry august

back to the windy westerlys again *sigh* but they can get interesting when decent fronts cross roll on summer less westerlys and more easterlys then

Yes Foggy, does look like interesting conditions coming up with a period of unsettled weather (spring like conditions?). Often varying from NW to SW etc, Hope there isn't too much NW before these fronts otherwise Chch loses out again.

Cheers

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Yes Foggy, does look like interesting conditions coming up with a period of unsettled weather (spring like conditions?). Often varying from NW to SW etc, Hope there isn't too much NW before these fronts otherwise Chch loses out again.

Cheers

JohnGaul
NZTS
Yes looks as though a bit of stormy spring westerlie type of weather about, especially as the week draws on.
Not putting much of a bet on thunderstorms for Christchurch, mainly due to timing ..but then you never may know, these days.

Mostly sunny today, 16c, dp 11c, fresh gusty southwesterlies

NZstorm wrote: Friday could be an interesting day in the west with very unstable squally conditions.

hmm tomorrow looks better! looks juicy at around midday with thunderstorms Taranaki northwards, especially the west!
Sat pix looks quite stormy behind the front due this evening, will briefly effect Westland (thunderstuff) enroute for Upper NI, (sorry John )
With the combination of high winds from the WSW (aloft too), warm tasman seas, potentially heavy rain, tottot values up to 60, low lifted indicies over the greater region, high CAPE values centred over the mighty Waikato and an approaching upper cold pool (-28c @ 500mb) modelled over Taranaki at 1pm and will probably induce further development and instability as it heads over AK-WK-BoP. Will timing be a factor with this upper cold pool and high winds? Well so far it's all on with squally thundery conditions with isolated hail likely.

MetService and Tony's Blueskies not so confident as myself at this stage so who knows...

I wouldn't really trust the models at the moment since we're in the thick of spring now, but hopefully this sticks!

Attatched is a 1pm map showing LI and CAPE and NZAA Metgram

where do you generate that second plot?? I like it!
Hmm yes definately looking interesting for tomorrow..

Foggy Hamilton wrote:MetService and Tony's Blueskies not so confident as myself at this stage so who knows...

MetService has just updated it's urban forecast for Hamilton:

Wednesday
Max: 15°C Min: 8°C
Showers, thunderstorms, heavy falls. Westerlies.
Couldn't resist the little icon lol

where do you generate that second plot?? I like it!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkavnmgaus.htm
Good luck with the german

marine forecast has gusts to 50 knots for here for tomorrow afternoon
another good wind chase, LOL

looks liek we r in for a bit ov everything rain stong or gale winds thunderstomrs and hail looking very intetresting from mid morning or mid day ownwards indeed

Everything bar Sun,Droughts,High temperatures Calm and Snow

squid wrote:looks liek we r in for a bit ov everything rain stong or gale winds thunderstomrs and hail looking very intetresting from mid morning or mid day ownwards indeed

NZstorm wrote:

Friday could be an interesting day in the west with very unstable squally conditions.

Foggy said
hmm tomorrow looks better! looks juicy at around midday with thunderstorms Taranaki northwards, especially the west!

Should have more moisture around on Friday so a better chance of Thunder, probably just squally showers tomorrow.

I see the Front out to our West is currently a narrow line of Cb with a few Thunderstorms on it.

yes it does look like it will b a narrow but intense line of cb's alot of heavy shower thunderstom activity behind it

Yes, quite an impressive little line. I can imagine there would be a nice gust front with it.

Was just thinking that, is a nice line moving up the western side of NZ there. No high cloud if you like ahead of it, my type of front!

Here's a visable sat pic at 7pm showing the nice Cb's etc, is just in the right amount of light to show some height to them etc.

still looking good it a fast mover can see it on radar now 10pm should b here by about 2 am bring it on verey windy here atm NW doing its thing

11pm radar looks good .. wonder how long I can stay up..

Thunder in New Plymouth right now...

Only rain here...

JohnGaul
NZTS

Oh no ...thunderstorms again for the north...

...when will it end

Dunno but we have had none in Levin for months...

shame its night time...this front would have looked quite good during the day time
shower activity behind it looks good for tomorrow alright
barometer dropping surprisingly fast with this approaching front...

SLURP! Wicked curvature inline with the coast!

12.15RR here: