ChCh Forecast contest

Archive of General Weather
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
03Stormchaser
Moderator
Posts: 4428
Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
Location: Prebbleton
Has thanked: 104 times
Been thanked: 184 times
Contact:

ChCh Forecast contest

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Predict the total rainfall to fall in Christchurch at Jeffs weather station (http://weather.northcott.co.nz/) tomorow (midnight through to midnight)

Estimates must be picked by 10pm tonight, you can change it as the today goes on but once 10pm comes round, what stands, stands.
The closest wins!!

Mine: 23 mm
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Unread post by Storm Struck »

This sounds like a house bidding thing :lol: .
I vote 27mm.
Cheers
JASON.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

I'll go for 15mm and snow to 600m inland. 900m about BP.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Unread post by TonyT »

I'll have two goes at this, one now and one at 10pm.

For now, I will say 18mm.
squid
Posts: 1304
Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
Location: Caboolture,QLD
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by squid »

30mm and snow down to 700m
Thunder
Posts: 2068
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
Location: Mt Somers
Has thanked: 19 times
Been thanked: 41 times

Unread post by Thunder »

GFS shows 40mm possible just inland so that's a good total for canty if it comes to be. Averaging things out I'd say around 20mm but we'll see! Snow to around 1000/900m.

Cheers
Image
Aaron Wilkinson
jeffsweather
Posts: 295
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:15
Location: Hillmorton, Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by jeffsweather »

My guess is 22mm, it will be interesting to see John's total for the same period if he likes to report it.
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Unread post by Willoughby »

39mm, plenty of incoming moisture ;)

Snow above 1200m, but should be washed away pretty quickly by heavy rains.
Skywatcher
Posts: 1249
Joined: Fri 21/02/2003 13:11
Location: Templeton, Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 49 times

Unread post by Skywatcher »

I'll go for 33mm at Jeff's but only 22mm here being further away from the Port Hills.
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Unread post by tich »

18mm and snow to about 600m inland, maybe even lower in some valleys and basins. Not sure about any snow on BP - easterlies don't normally bring snow there.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

snow to about 600m inland, maybe even lower in some valleys and basins. Not sure about any snow on BP - easterlies don't normally bring snow there.
I agree with your snow levels Ben. I anticipate an isothermal layer inland which will lower the snow level.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Unread post by TonyT »

TonyT wrote:For now, I will say 18mm.
I reckon much lighter rain or maybe only drizzle in Chch for most of the day, and steadier rain only developing during the evening, then continuing past midnight through to at least dawn on Tuesday.

So, while I think 20-25mm is likely for the full event, for the period up to midnight I will go for 11mm. :)
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

JohnGaul
NZTS


5.5mm from me :)
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Unread post by Michael »

6.1mm it hardly rains down there ;)
Thunder
Posts: 2068
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
Location: Mt Somers
Has thanked: 19 times
Been thanked: 41 times

Unread post by Thunder »

I think 17.5mm now. I don't know why 17.5mm but hey, sounds good to me! lol. There should be something out of it, the juicy end of the front is lying over Canty.

Mt Somers got 30mm the other day Micheal, it can rain. lol.

Cheers

Edit: After 10:00! But I've allready got my estimate in, just putting up a map showing the fronts:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
Aaron Wilkinson
User avatar
03Stormchaser
Moderator
Posts: 4428
Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
Location: Prebbleton
Has thanked: 104 times
Been thanked: 184 times
Contact:

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

**CLOSED**
Here are the Total Rainfall forecasts:

John Gaul: 5.5mm
Michael: 6.1mm
TonyT: 11mm
NZstorm: 15mm
Aaron: 17.5mm
tich: 18mm
Jeff: 22mm
03storm: 23mm
Jasestrm: 27mm
Squid: 30mm
Steven G: 33mm
Foggy: 39mm

The average forecast is 20.59mm. Now lets wait :)

P.S: and jeff no tampering with the rainfall gauge :twisted: lol
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
Skywatcher
Posts: 1249
Joined: Fri 21/02/2003 13:11
Location: Templeton, Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 49 times

Unread post by Skywatcher »

Heavy rain here, about 6mm/h, and I see it's snowing at Castle Hill (726m asl)
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Some heavy rain about 1pm today only for an hour lighter falls now mainly spitting though.
When will these totals come to an end iam taking it is tomorrow whe it clears in the afternoon.
Cheers
JASON.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like you guys in Chch have had a bitterly cold day. Max 9C currently 6.9C.
User avatar
03Stormchaser
Moderator
Posts: 4428
Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
Location: Prebbleton
Has thanked: 104 times
Been thanked: 184 times
Contact:

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Hasnt been all that great, 11.4mm so far, Looks like either TonyT or NZstorm are going to win
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
Thunder
Posts: 2068
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
Location: Mt Somers
Has thanked: 19 times
Been thanked: 41 times

Unread post by Thunder »

Hasn't been as much as expected in Chch (the average above) but has been some ok falls. 32mm in Lees Valley, 29.8mm in the Ashley area. There's prob a little more to go yet in Chch but probably not enough to get to 17.5mm! lol.

Cheers
Image
Aaron Wilkinson
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Unread post by Willoughby »

03 Stormchaser wrote:Hasnt been all that great, 11.4mm so far, Looks like either TonyT or NZstorm are going to win
...The two most wx-intelligent on the forum in my opinion ;)

Beats my very liberal 39mm! :)
User avatar
03Stormchaser
Moderator
Posts: 4428
Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
Location: Prebbleton
Has thanked: 104 times
Been thanked: 184 times
Contact:

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

If this was the weather mafia they would be the "Godfathers"

"Hey Tony whats the weather doing? (said in typical mobster slang)

:)
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
squid
Posts: 1304
Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
Location: Caboolture,QLD
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Unread post by squid »

hey it is close to my 30mm ;)
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Unread post by TonyT »

You take a da readings and I make a da forecasts, ok? ;)
Locked