NZ Weather Forum

it seems that we are having a break in the westerlies for a few days anyways witch will make a change been light winds here and reached 24C got some convection happening dont know how good it will yet nxt few days could be good for some shower/storm activity well for the north anyways with the seabreeze convergence what do you all reckon

squid wrote:it seems that we are having a break in the westerlys for a few days anyways witch will make a change been light winds here and reached 24C got some convection happening dont know how good it will yet nxt few days could be good for some shower/storm activity well for the north anyways with the seabreeze convergance ( correct me if i spelt it wrong and i will fix it later) what do you all reckon

Westerlies...anyway which...next...convergence

No wind around here today from any direction... Went to Wanganui and it has been damn warm all day... 20deg c on my pooter desk right now...

JohnGaul
NZTS

I don't think there is any break in the westerlies, I think that it is going to be boring as the westerlies are weaker this spring.
Everything moves from the west to the east, so there will not be a lack of a westerly flow
Next week's low is going to be useless as it is in the north Tasman Sea, so no interesting weather here. Yawn...

We should see some afternoon inland showers tomorrow once some heating gets going after the early cloud from that front clears. I don't think storms unless dewpoints are around 10 and temp gets to around 18 which seems unlikely. But yeah, hopefully some interesting Cu to look at.

Sunday still looks like a possible storm day with an upper trough near by and it should be mostly fine with ok moisture. But seen as it's a we way out things could change.

Cheers

Cloud increased today, became 8/8 by 11am with drizzle turning to periods of rain with northeasterlies.
(4mm)

The forecast all day from the MetService?
Mainly fine.

Don't get me wrong that it was low cloud and the satellites don't pick it up.. but I thought the new JMA MT-SAT was good enough to detect fog??

a convergence zone of differeing airmasses was occuring over the upper NI today.....becuase of winds moving around she high sliding into and under a different airmass on the edge of the high (which was left behind from the last weather system in a way)
i.e a type of easterly surge was occuring today....
surface NE wind was stronger than winds higher up too

there was areas of showers around hunua and to the NW of me here, but pretty good weather most of the day right here

Those showers have hang around Auckland all night. 4am radar shows quite a line (convergence zone).

With low level instability and abundant moisture I don't think we'll see much sun today in the north, rather further showers.

7am temp, 14C dp14C.

yes, 3mm here overnight ina short period of moderate rain...
currently blue skies to out west, but a cloud line over the city , extending SSW

this mucky left over stuff normaly slowly improves and clears and settles over a few days...
models show that next low will deepen and then be slow moving over the NI
could be lots of rain and strong easterlies for the bottom half of the NI

models show that next low will deepen and then be slow moving over the NI
could be lots of rain and strong easterlies for the bottom half of the NI

Yes, models are fairly stable at the moment with the idea of a low over Northern NZ mid next week. This low looks like it will have a good moisture feed into it.

I see Met Service in their convective forecast are suggesting possible very heavy showers for Auckland/Waikato tonight. Does look to be some good low level CAPE from this afternoon. Relatively warmer upper level air though will prevent the development of deeper thundery cb's.

There is hope - just been for a walk, it's quite humid and the cu off to the west is starting to show signs of glaciation Now I just have to somehoe organise so I can look out the west windows of the building instead of the east!

Cheers,

G

a sea breeze pushed the shower over towards the city from the heads area here....but now its stalled, the shower, and we have misty drizzle....and me washings getting wet

Fine spells and few light showers today, humid light northerly, 17c

Models all over the place at the moment, or have been atleast!
(shallow moisture layers in spring are responsible for this and change often between each wx balloon ascent)

Weak thunderstorm here in the Hawkes Bay a short timre ago, sounded north of me. Lots of cloud around so hard to tell. Heard about three rumbles of thunder.

18mm recorded since 2.30pm in Havelock North, still raining. 76mm/hr at one stage.

James, I am about 25kms from Havelock North in Raukawa. 1mm in my gauge so far. Must have been somwhere near you.

Didn't see any lightning, nor hear any thunder (though the rain was too noisy anyway).

Thats so common here getting it in and out all day Rain now has set in again

Manukau heads observer wrote:and me washings getting wet

warm and muggy day here with showers around lunchtime they have been pushed to the east by the seabreeze but another line out to the west aswell some places in the north could get some good falls overnight and 2morow and yes another low for the north tasman witch will mean more action for the north island sorry you south island folk you will get ur action sometime soon

nice convergence line from north of whangarei to Hamilton on 4pm radar [/list][/quote]

Rain radar shows nice narrow long line of sea breeze convergence showers from here all the way up northland

The view from work at 4.15pm - pretty grim looking! Later I drove through light rain on the way home - it looked far worse than it actually was!

James wrote:18mm recorded since 2.30pm in Havelock North, still raining. 76mm/hr at one stage.

Wow! Cool!

Nice pic!

Small thunderstorm did pop up in South Canterbury this afternoon with a heavy shower or two. A bit more than I expected but hey, that's cool.

Next chance day looks like Sunday I think.

Cheers

Any hail observed at all?

Latest urban forecasts from the MetService look kinda "huhh?"