a break in the Westerlies

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 13/10/2005 19:59

Aaron, once again you have out performed the Met Service in ts forecasting.

Did anyone else see the video of the big hail storm on the Gold Coast.(TV1). Wow...hail the size of cricket balls. As they would say at the Gabba 'sensational'.

Maybe a storm chase to Aussie wouldn't be a bad idea.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 13/10/2005 20:12

Yes i Did amazing aye

a chase to Aussie wouldnt be bad idea NZstorm looks like storms forecast there right up till Tuesday

.
Here's a video i found on sky news website of the hail storm hehe one guy is bowling them coz they are so big.
I would imagine there would have been a tornado around perhaps no reports so farr on Weatherzone either.
Yes Aaron few little towers today felt good to see them get's me back ito storm season mode fully cloudy now though some weakish CU has lingerd around BP-Plains obvoiusly cant go any further due to the higher covering of cloud.
Here's Crcket ball hail video.
http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchas ... -Small.wmv
Cheers
JASON.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 13/10/2005 20:19

NZstorm wrote:
Maybe a storm chase to Aussie wouldn't be a bad idea.

Have actually looked into that, isnt a bad idea if you pick week and chase till you drop, or do you fly over when storms are on?? if the later Flights will be bloody expensive!

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 13/10/2005 20:48

i would love to do a storm chase in ozzie wow what a hailstom on the gold coast woudl love to be in the storm but not the hail that big thanks got nothing from that convergence zone so far grr

but 2morow looks like a repeat of 2day so hopefully the zone will get pushed west instead of east this time well the chances are pretty good wait and see

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 13/10/2005 21:24

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Nice pic!

Small thunderstorm did pop up in South Canterbury this afternoon with a heavy shower or two. A bit more than I expected but hey, that's cool.

Next chance day looks like Sunday I think.

Cheers

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yes Aaron, interesting day cloud wize.
Amazing display of Cirrus Uncinus about 10am straight above.
Lots of ice-falls in the cirrus cloud curving in from the south.
Nicely patterned Sc layer along the Canterbury Plains this afternoon over inland areas. Ne convergence cloud noticed coming back into the city from West Melton. Would of been more impressive under a lower barometer, possibly thunderous?
Timaru got one or 2 claps of thunder from an isolated Cb from what I've been told.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 13/10/2005 21:48

or do you fly over when storms are on??

Thats my thinking. Its more expensive but you can cherry pick the weather that way. Aussie is more hit and miss than the USA midwest in May. So its a bit risky booking a cheap airfare a month in advance.

Last time I looked it was $650 return on short notice. (Brisbane) Must be able to get a better deal than that though.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 13/10/2005 22:22

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thanks for the video clip of the hail on the Gold Coast.
I just got the tail end on the news
Must of been really intense uplifting going on to produce those jaggety ice cricket balls

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 13/10/2005 23:10

Yes cool stuff in Brisbane... 5-6 days of rain there now onwards.
Severe late thunderstorms instore for Darwin too tomorrow.

Oct 13.. and we shouldn't be seeing this!!
Cent. Australia has been far to hot.
09z 13th...

Evapotranspiration rates here are very high (140mm for Oct) and will lead to a convective weekend, Waikato and Volcanic Plateau especially with the atmosphere becoming marginally unstable again.
Though having said that... next week sure does look depressing.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 14/10/2005 06:54

Steady rain in Auckland this morning. Quite a miserable looking day out there. I notice in the NZ Herald the airport got 18mm out of yesterdays showers taking the Oct total to 133mm so far.

Upper air has cooled off signifcantly since yesterday which suggests any decent forcing today will lead to thunderstorms. Hence I am forecasting isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the Waikato/Coromandal and Bay of Plenty today. Will need some surface heating for these to occur.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2005 08:49

quite alot of rain around at the moment, 25mm just south of drury...
13mm in waiuku..so far...
not raining just here at the moment...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 14/10/2005 10:03

NZstorm wrote: Will need some surface heating for these to occur.

Agreed, but Northland has a greater chance in my view.

Sunshine just starting to peek through now, humid with light winds.
No rain here since dawn, just some rain showers overnight.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 14/10/2005 10:09

Still raining here in central AK. To wet for me to work today.

Agreed, but Northland has a greater chance in my view.

Yes, I agree. Anywhere there is good surface heating north of about Taupo, an isolated thunderstorm could pop up this afternoon. The cloud cover keeps the risk low though.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2005 12:22

huge CB gone up south of pukekohe now!

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2005 12:56

picys
getting real black under it now!
lightning reported in waiuku!

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Fri 14/10/2005 12:57

I can see 4 maybe 5 cb's out to the south and east of the city

The afternoon will be interesting! There was a tower going up to the north as well as I was returning from my lunchtime walk... hmmm what time can I get out of here?

Cheers,

G

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2005 12:57

and another

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:01

G'day Brian,

Rickys tracker just picked up an inter-cloud out your way, so this lines up with your obs. Yes its looking nice and summery out there today with nice crisp(ish) Cu/TCu with little mid to upper deck stuff to limit vertical development.

Bring it on!! i notice too in your pics Brian the nature of the anvils indicate quite cool upper temps, could be hail makers??

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:02

Yes, scattered Cb clouds are developing once again over the greater region this spring, especially to my north now!

Mostly cloudy, 18c, humid, light winds

Troposphere height looks to be at 12,000m... am I right in saying this?

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:07

Metservice have just gone out with a severe thunderstorm warning for western Auckland / Northland areas

G

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:08

I'd say so foggy, esp for this time of year. Also that height seems quite possible just looking at Brians Pics.

There were some pearlers down your way on tuesday Willoughby. I was working in Te Awamutu then drove down to Te Kuiti that night. I was able to observe some awesome cb activity in south waikato and king country. I believe on the day tropo heights were about the same.

See you fellas have got a tower crane up in hamilton at the mo (a new car park). Thats a brand new crane that one and you dont often see them in hammy.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2005 13:12

ricky's tracker did very well, as the lightning strike was right over head in waiuku (was just talking to my mum on the phone), it was a real crack she said!
then it hosed with rain, but has eased off a bit now..
the wife is in waiuku today, and she sais she got soaking wet the rain was that hard....
i would go in for a closer look, but have to set up for calf club at the school this arvo...

more building now occuring just south of pukehoke, and its moved south of waiuku now..
its the hunua ranges that are the trigger for the waiuku/pukekohe storms by the look (in the NE flow)

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:18

attached is the 11am NOAA satpic showing the Waiuku Cell under glaciation.

This also shows the "severe" line forming on the west coast (as per met service predictions).

Spoke to the missus out west and she has observed some Tcu out henderson way

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:19

might help if i attach the image....!

Manukau heads obs · Fri 14/10/2005 13:27

the other trigger line looks to be the brynderywn hills, so the lower kaipara area will be in for big CB's in the next few hours I would say

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 14/10/2005 13:30

C-Nimbus wrote:There were some pearlers down your way on tuesday Willoughby. I was working in Te Awamutu then drove down to Te Kuiti that night. I was able to observe some awesome cb activity in south waikato and king country. I believe on the day tropo heights were about the same.

See you fellas have got a tower crane up in hamilton at the mo (a new car park). Thats a brand new crane that one and you dont often see them in hammy.

Oh yes there were pearlers

We had a crane here recently for the building of the Sky City casino.. not the first time!

C-Nimbus wrote:This also shows the "severe" line forming on the west coast (as per met service predictions).

Yes.. but it's a nowcast.. Steven beat them to it here.