Tasman Low

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 17/10/2005 21:10

well looks like another tasman low is on its way so what does everyone reckon will we get much out of it or not

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 17/10/2005 21:53

squid wrote:will we get much out of it or not

JohnGaul
NZTS

NO. ....

well not here anyway

Manukau heads obs · Mon 17/10/2005 22:13

eastern northland and coromendal
but for us here in auckland south, not much from it.....rain shadow effect...it might be all gone by the weekend and so will be a fine labours days weekened for a change?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/10/2005 22:21

Yes, quite a level of uncertainty in the tracking of this low.. as well as the one forecast under South Australia.
This one could track as far south as Wellington or as far north of North Cape before bending out into the Chathams.

But as Brian points out those locations look to be in..
I'm thinking Eastland will be in especially with heavy rains, possibly flooding

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 17/10/2005 22:29

Foggy Hamilton wrote: I'm thinking Eastland will be in especially with heavy rains, possibly flooding

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yeah ..from all the drizzle we are going to get from tomorrow and through the week until the high moves over this WE

Should be a settled Labour WE for once

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 17/10/2005 22:31

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Foggy Hamilton wrote: I'm thinking Eastland will be in especially with heavy rains, possibly flooding
JohnGaul
NZTS

Yeah ..from all the drizzle we are going to get from tomorrow and through the week until the high moves over this WE
Should be a settled Labour WE for once

Eastland.. as in Mahia Peninsular to East Cape

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 18/10/2005 09:52

NO. .... well not here anyway

Just cloud with some drizzle and/or light rain. But it should be cold, and MetService has predicted snow flurries down to about 800m on the Canterbury foothills for tomorrow. With the flow being southeasterly, the precipitation should spread inland more easily, but Banks Peninsula should set up its partial rainshadow for Chch, probably meaning less wet stuff here.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 18/10/2005 22:25

Yes so heavy rain looks to develop tomorrow evening with eastern areas of the NI looking as though they're in for a drenching.

Looks interesting as well with that low in the bight developing into something thundery as it arrives here

Manukau heads obs · Wed 19/10/2005 08:03

rain radar shows rain over the northern half of northland.....
there is silage down around here....but its cloudy here, so will take a while for the dew to dry off...

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 19/10/2005 08:54

Wall to wall blue skies here... Same yesterday... Was at the coast and got 2lb of whitebait...

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 19/10/2005 08:55

Just cloud with some drizzle and/or light rain. But it should be cold, and MetService has predicted snow flurries down to about 800m on the Canterbury foothills for tomorrow. With the flow being southeasterly, the precipitation should spread inland more easily, but Banks Peninsula should set up its partial rainshadow for Chch, probably meaning less wet stuff here.

Even that scenario has fizzled out - now only isolated drizzle forecast for today. But no drizzle in central Chch, and the sun is poking through breaks in the cloud.

However, MetService is still predicting cold showery southerlies for coastal Canterbury on Friday, but clearing by the weekend.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 19/10/2005 09:28

looks like the rain is heading down the west coast of the NI, as a sort of lee trough thing...which it does sometimes...so that means we will get rain in the auckland area after all, especialy westeran auckland and south into port waikato south area too...after i initialy thought we would not get it as it would go further east....hummmm

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Wed 19/10/2005 15:38

Some insability around again today, loks like the odd Tstorm popping up on the ranges. Ran into Bob McDavitt at the HB AMP show late yesterday evening. MET service have a stand there. Hope to catch him there again today.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 19/10/2005 16:08

been betting heavy showers all day here had 15mm so far and the main rain is not expected here untill 2morow morning metsevice has a severe weather watch out for northland coromandel and western BOP so they think that something is going to happend could be a real good drenching fomr northland to hawks bay 2morow and friday morning even auckland could get some aswell veyr muggy here heaps of moisture still around left over from a while ago I think that this low will pass pretty close if nto over north cape well lets see

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 19/10/2005 16:34

Levin here... Small but distinct funnel cloud 20 minutes ago...

By the time I got my camera, it had halved in size...

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 19/10/2005 17:50

Now there is some thunder, very faint though...

And this pic looking south towards Otaki...

Manukau heads obs · Wed 19/10/2005 17:53

cool clouds there...

rain radar showed more rain than there realy was in the auckland area (i.e it was evaporating before it hit the ground)...and most of it went around me here.....1mm all that most recorded around the area that did get it....i.e most of the heavy stuff so far was in northland, and coromandel

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 19/10/2005 19:04

Good stuff there spike!

Damn everywere got funnels except Canterbury

Make that everywere get thunderstorms except Canterbury

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 19/10/2005 19:15

Yes, well done Spike. Looks like a nice funnel there.

I could see plenty of t/cu building up today under an overcast deck of Altostratus. Midday soundings for both Auckland and Wellington indicate t/cu tops to 5000m. Above that the cloud would struggle at these dewpoints. But higher dewpoint air will be here tomorrow.

Just add that thunder usually starts when a cb top reaches the 7000m mark.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 19/10/2005 19:36

Cheers guys... Its still looking pretty dodgy out there... Wouldnt surprise me if we hear the was some drama in Shannon or up that way somewhere by the morning... The rain is holding off but the cloud base is just plain black...

Wait and see what , if anything, happens I guess...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 19/10/2005 20:15

I notice a scattering of cb's in inland Otago this evening. Will be hail with those and quite possibly thunder though they don't look overly active.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 19/10/2005 20:45

Yes NZstorm quite possible down that way looks to be another isolated shower around same area of last nights one slighty heavy on 7PM radar interesting to see 10pm radar.
Hooked up a light shower of rain this afternoon through a slight clearance in the lower cloud some upper level clouds were producing this moisture

.
Cheers
JASON.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 19/10/2005 21:12

alot of funnel clouds lately hmm wonder why had 20mm of rain here 2day from heavy showers heavy rain warning out for caromandal and western BOP and a watch out for northland northern auckland and for Gisbone for friday

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 19/10/2005 22:21

NZstorm wrote:I notice a scattering of cb's in inland Otago this evening. Will be hail with those and quite possibly thunder though they don't look overly active.

Active drizzle here

I see that on the sat though

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 19/10/2005 23:36

Cool photos spike!

Scattered rain has moved in here this afternoon but it has mainly been light since.

Must be quite a lot of convectional rainfall around the Taupo region.. 35mm since 4pm... whereas other stations aren't reporting that much.
Easing now.

Yes NZstorm there was still quite a bit of T/Cu under the thickening high cloud

You're quite right Brian about that rain moving west for the meantime..
However...,
HEAVY rain developing tomorrow night about the Urewera/Eastland Gisborne Ranges and extending into Friday afternoon before easing by evening. Light winds with NE on Thursday and light S on Friday.

Southerlies however will be strong about Hawke's Bay and rain will become very heavy on Friday afternoon and will persist into the night.
(above based on GFS 00 and 18 trends)

Models still varying a lot..

GFS 06z 19th suggesting Auckland/Northern Waikato/Coromandel could well and truly be in for
very heavy rain on Friday. Hmmmmm

(With a further ONE HUNDERED MM likely!

)
Localised flooding looks likely folks!

Also to note, further severe thunderstorms on the way to Brisbane

NZ Weather Forum

Tasman Low

Tasman Low

Re: Tasman Low