Canterbury thunderstorm possiblities, Sat, Mon, Wed

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 09/11/2005 22:01

Three possible days coming up within the next week. Looks like an interesting period, for us.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 09/11/2005 22:42

Probably just means 8/8 and Showers with SW for us

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 10/11/2005 07:51

The models are all over the place. Days may have changed but a periosd of instablity is still there. Saturday looks like inland Otago may have thunderstorms.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 10/11/2005 10:12

Will have to wait and see what happens on the day stormchaser.
Will depend on Frontal timing,cloud cover, onshore breeze etc.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 10/11/2005 19:14

I'm forecasting a high risk of thunderstorm for Fiordland and Westland tomorrow due to rising dewpoints there.

I saw an item on TV1 news the other night on the low SI hydro lakes. I wasn't aware they were low. This front will giving them a wee boost. The wettest season for the Alps is November to January, so low lakes now are not yet a big concern. If they are still low in January, the country will have to start building more wind power stations. Manurewa would be a good place to start.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 10/11/2005 20:26

Ricky's Boltech is picking up strikes all the way from the South Tasman Sea. 1500km away!

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Thu 10/11/2005 20:39

Probably someone down the road doing some welding.

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Thu 10/11/2005 20:56

It's real

the LF plots show how active the frontal bands are there!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 10/11/2005 21:23

Thats a great looking Front.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 10/11/2005 22:34

Hmm, Saturday looks to of backed down a bit. There's still a chance there but it's not as good as before. However Sunday evening has come to the rescue! It looks better but we'll see.

Hopefully something happens this weekend! So a report can be done and all.

Yeah, nice front out there!!

Cheers

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 10/11/2005 22:51

I'm not giving out any high promises this WE

JohnGaul
NZTS

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Fri 11/11/2005 08:29

Models are acting up abit here, now saturday is looking good!! - LI's, 500mb temp isnt all that great at around -24C, cape isnt too bad either. With sunday looking quite plain really. Having said that who knows what the next model run has for us?

(btw when I say for us I dont just mean chch but anywere down as south as Oamaru, we dont mind stormchasing down here

)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 11/11/2005 11:33

Not looking too bad for tomorrow afternoon/evening MS predicting 10-20mm hail here should be interesting to see what happens.
And then yes Aaron Sunday evening could be a chance for storms too time to cross or fingers buts and toes

.
Cheers
JASON.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 11/11/2005 13:31

Looks good for you beggars down there with that southerly change coming through afternoon.
Northeasterlies may develop during the evening.. this a bad thing?

High risks of thunderstorms for the upper North Island for Wednesday/Thursday at this stage.. shouldn't get much rain tomorrow.. the MetService suggesting otherwise

Cheers

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Fri 11/11/2005 14:10

yes! looking very interesting for the latter part of the week

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Fri 11/11/2005 15:24

yes the models indicate a nice mid tasman low that deepens quite rapidly on about wednesday. Its been a while since this has happened.

i see there is even a low risk 2moro, but i doubt it

all i can say is "GO CANTERBURY" you guys need some action down there and i always enjoy the reports from Steven B and Aaron W, and hows that temp down there - phew!

should be a nice SW'er change for Michele to whinge about 2moro

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 11/11/2005 16:41

The models certainly have been changing their minds on this one, but the latest LAPS data shows significant Totaltotals over the eastern SI Southland to North Canty tomorrow afternoon, and I just feel the general situation looks favourable: no clearly defined front but plenty of frontal wannabes in there; probably light enough flow to allow some periods of E or NE to come in off the sea; the main front weakening quite rapidly which should allow the frontal cloud to break up and increase the chance of some sunny periods, especially during the morning. No one element stands out, but together it starts to look like a pretty promising scenario for storms to develop and waft northeastwards. I'd be more inclined to think North Otago/South Canty for storm generation, then advection into the rest of Canty later in the afternoon.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 11/11/2005 17:04

I see the dewpoint in Chch at 4pm today was -1C with the land wind.
Should have cooler but moist onshore winds tomorrow, will need it for Thunder.
Looking forward to the photo's if any Storms develop.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 12/11/2005 09:25

Interesting to see what metservice has forecasted in there thunderstorm forecasts. Doesnt really say anything new, except they are forecasting larger hail than i would have thought, maybe Im missing something?

The area around Tai Tapu looks like the best place to be if your wanting not to chase that far. Hopefully i will have my laptop connection up and running by the time I head out chasing.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 12/11/2005 09:42

Is that colder upper air coming in quickly enough? Upper air over Canterbury will have to really cool off to about 500mb-22C for initiation of deep convection. -25C would be better. Will be interesting to see the midday sounding from Invercargill to see the progress of the cooling.

Next 3 days looks potentially unstable over parts of NZ. Gisborne/Bay of Plenty looks like an interesting place to be on Monday.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 12/11/2005 10:42

This is gonna be interesting not just today but also tomorrow now

two thunder days in a row in November is very uncommon i think

not unless its happend before in 19 something a rather

any one?.
Usually you see thunder days after themselves in December around xmas new year period so tow i certainly wouldnt mind

.
Some nice Mamatus forms out to the east this morning

iam just in the area of the severe thunderstorms circle but only just

hail 25mm how big is that in terms of pebble size or is it almost golf ball size?.
Cheers
JASON.

Let the thunder rumble the season to a good start

.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 12/11/2005 11:13

Severe Convection/ Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: 12:00 am 13 Nov 2005 NZDT
Issued at: 9:15 am 12 Nov 2005 NZDT

The airmass is expected to cool aloft this afternoon in the wake of a frontal band crossing the area this morning. Afternoon heating and an onshore convergent wind flows are expected to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms in Canterbury and eastern Otago and also in Southland.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the most vigorous in Canterbury and this gives rise to the potential for isolated hail possibly as large as 25mm. Therefore, a moderate rise of sever thunderstorms is depicted on the map for mainly inland Canterbury. These storms are expected to drift towards the coast after having developed inland.

Could be some major action for you chasers, but I'd be worried if I were a fruit and veges grower.

This is gonna be interesting not just today but also tomorrow now two thunder days in a row in November is very uncommon i think not unless its happend before in 19 something a rather any one?.

Happened last year - not in Chch, but thunderstorms in the city were followed by more the next day on outer Banks Peninsula. (but with good view of cbs from Chch)

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 12/11/2005 11:27

looking very good for you lot down there i hope that you get some really good action and i also look forward to any pics that you may get

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 12/11/2005 12:22

looking very good for you lot down there

Tomorrow (Sunday) looks more favourable for afternoon thunderstorms over Otago/Canterbury.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 12/11/2005 12:38

it probably does look more favouable, but that doesnt mean anything wont happen today. Small cu now out on the plains.