Canterbury thunderstorm possiblities, Sat, Mon, Wed
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- 03Stormchaser
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Canterbury thunderstorm possiblities, Sat, Mon, Wed
Three possible days coming up within the next week. Looks like an interesting period, for us.
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- 03Stormchaser
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The models are all over the place. Days may have changed but a periosd of instablity is still there. Saturday looks like inland Otago may have thunderstorms.
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- NZstorm
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I'm forecasting a high risk of thunderstorm for Fiordland and Westland tomorrow due to rising dewpoints there.
I saw an item on TV1 news the other night on the low SI hydro lakes. I wasn't aware they were low. This front will giving them a wee boost. The wettest season for the Alps is November to January, so low lakes now are not yet a big concern. If they are still low in January, the country will have to start building more wind power stations. Manurewa would be a good place to start.
I saw an item on TV1 news the other night on the low SI hydro lakes. I wasn't aware they were low. This front will giving them a wee boost. The wettest season for the Alps is November to January, so low lakes now are not yet a big concern. If they are still low in January, the country will have to start building more wind power stations. Manurewa would be a good place to start.
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- 03Stormchaser
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Models are acting up abit here, now saturday is looking good!! - LI's, 500mb temp isnt all that great at around -24C, cape isnt too bad either. With sunday looking quite plain really. Having said that who knows what the next model run has for us?
(btw when I say for us I dont just mean chch but anywere down as south as Oamaru, we dont mind stormchasing down here )
(btw when I say for us I dont just mean chch but anywere down as south as Oamaru, we dont mind stormchasing down here )
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- Storm Struck
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- Willoughby
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Looks good for you beggars down there with that southerly change coming through afternoon.
Northeasterlies may develop during the evening.. this a bad thing?
High risks of thunderstorms for the upper North Island for Wednesday/Thursday at this stage.. shouldn't get much rain tomorrow.. the MetService suggesting otherwise
Cheers
Northeasterlies may develop during the evening.. this a bad thing?
High risks of thunderstorms for the upper North Island for Wednesday/Thursday at this stage.. shouldn't get much rain tomorrow.. the MetService suggesting otherwise
Cheers
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yes the models indicate a nice mid tasman low that deepens quite rapidly on about wednesday. Its been a while since this has happened.
i see there is even a low risk 2moro, but i doubt it
all i can say is "GO CANTERBURY" you guys need some action down there and i always enjoy the reports from Steven B and Aaron W, and hows that temp down there - phew!
should be a nice SW'er change for Michele to whinge about 2moro
i see there is even a low risk 2moro, but i doubt it
all i can say is "GO CANTERBURY" you guys need some action down there and i always enjoy the reports from Steven B and Aaron W, and hows that temp down there - phew!
should be a nice SW'er change for Michele to whinge about 2moro
- TonyT
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The models certainly have been changing their minds on this one, but the latest LAPS data shows significant Totaltotals over the eastern SI Southland to North Canty tomorrow afternoon, and I just feel the general situation looks favourable: no clearly defined front but plenty of frontal wannabes in there; probably light enough flow to allow some periods of E or NE to come in off the sea; the main front weakening quite rapidly which should allow the frontal cloud to break up and increase the chance of some sunny periods, especially during the morning. No one element stands out, but together it starts to look like a pretty promising scenario for storms to develop and waft northeastwards. I'd be more inclined to think North Otago/South Canty for storm generation, then advection into the rest of Canty later in the afternoon.
- 03Stormchaser
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Interesting to see what metservice has forecasted in there thunderstorm forecasts. Doesnt really say anything new, except they are forecasting larger hail than i would have thought, maybe Im missing something?
The area around Tai Tapu looks like the best place to be if your wanting not to chase that far. Hopefully i will have my laptop connection up and running by the time I head out chasing.
The area around Tai Tapu looks like the best place to be if your wanting not to chase that far. Hopefully i will have my laptop connection up and running by the time I head out chasing.
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- NZstorm
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Is that colder upper air coming in quickly enough? Upper air over Canterbury will have to really cool off to about 500mb-22C for initiation of deep convection. -25C would be better. Will be interesting to see the midday sounding from Invercargill to see the progress of the cooling.
Next 3 days looks potentially unstable over parts of NZ. Gisborne/Bay of Plenty looks like an interesting place to be on Monday.
Next 3 days looks potentially unstable over parts of NZ. Gisborne/Bay of Plenty looks like an interesting place to be on Monday.
- Storm Struck
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This is gonna be interesting not just today but also tomorrow now two thunder days in a row in November is very uncommon i think not unless its happend before in 19 something a rather any one?.
Usually you see thunder days after themselves in December around xmas new year period so tow i certainly wouldnt mind .
Some nice Mamatus forms out to the east this morning iam just in the area of the severe thunderstorms circle but only just hail 25mm how big is that in terms of pebble size or is it almost golf ball size?.
Cheers
JASON.
Let the thunder rumble the season to a good start .
Usually you see thunder days after themselves in December around xmas new year period so tow i certainly wouldnt mind .
Some nice Mamatus forms out to the east this morning iam just in the area of the severe thunderstorms circle but only just hail 25mm how big is that in terms of pebble size or is it almost golf ball size?.
Cheers
JASON.
Let the thunder rumble the season to a good start .
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Could be some major action for you chasers, but I'd be worried if I were a fruit and veges grower.
Severe Convection/ Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: 12:00 am 13 Nov 2005 NZDT
Issued at: 9:15 am 12 Nov 2005 NZDT
The airmass is expected to cool aloft this afternoon in the wake of a frontal band crossing the area this morning. Afternoon heating and an onshore convergent wind flows are expected to lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms in Canterbury and eastern Otago and also in Southland.
Thunderstorms are expected to be the most vigorous in Canterbury and this gives rise to the potential for isolated hail possibly as large as 25mm. Therefore, a moderate rise of sever thunderstorms is depicted on the map for mainly inland Canterbury. These storms are expected to drift towards the coast after having developed inland.
Happened last year - not in Chch, but thunderstorms in the city were followed by more the next day on outer Banks Peninsula. (but with good view of cbs from Chch)This is gonna be interesting not just today but also tomorrow now two thunder days in a row in November is very uncommon i think not unless its happend before in 19 something a rather any one?.
- 03Stormchaser
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it probably does look more favouable, but that doesnt mean anything wont happen today. Small cu now out on the plains.
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