where is the next lot of decent rain going to come from?

[Manukau heads obs]

heading for the driest year on record here if the pattern keeps up
farmers are getting worried, last decent rain was in the first week of October
maybe on the back side of this next high there will be some good rain...

hopefully a la nina pattern develops in january and rainfall is above normal for jan/feb/mar/apr

that would be nice
(but farmers are never happy)

[RWood]

Getting pretty dry here over same time period, year's deficit now over 280mm. Wouldn't count very heavily on a La Nina.

[Manukau heads obs]

still 6 weeks to go for the years rain, but we are 500mm down on average (for year total)
1993 was our driest year on record (aucklands water shortage)
it was the very dry autumn that has made the year to date number so low, this year...
the way the weather pattern has been, we could easily get a week with lots of rain in it between now and the end of the year....out of the blue...

[Manukau heads obs]

ps, aucklanders,if you missed what the day was like weather wise, see it here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... yvideo.htm
(all going well with the auto upload)

[Michael]

Currently sunny 16c but by the looks we will get SW from this system as it makes a trough as it passes bringing southerlies to most of the country and the planes are whistling in so it means that too

[spwill]

http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... yvideo.htm

Looks great Brian.

Nov has been rather dry here, have been watering the Garden .
Air has been on the dry side, have not had high pre Frontal dewpoints for a while.

[Willoughby]

Bring back mid-September and early October!

Hamilton is on track to pass the mean annual rainfall of 1186mm (1115mm so far).. so not many worries here.
Pasture growth down a little compared to 11/2004.

This all turned to crap in December as it really hurt the horticulture sector here.. especially strawberries!

Cheers

[Manukau heads obs]

it is amazing how much more rain hamilton has had than auckland....which occured in some of those NE rain episodes and there westerly rain episodes..

current day video, updated hourly, is here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... yvideo.htm


sometimes when there are cows grazing across the road, you can see them moving around the paddock in a big uniform mob

note, broadband best to view, as they are 1mb in size videos

[NZstorm]

Not likely to get another December like (2004) for a long time. I have never seen a summer month so cold and wet across nz.


I think for significant rainfall in the north now, (apart from localised convective storms) we will need to see a weather system with a significant northerly component. These fronts in southwesterlies will not give much rainfall[/quote]

[Manukau heads obs]

or unstable northerly (i.e trough/convergence line, which is slow moving) with big wet CB's, from a high dew point
we have had alot of rain from them in december before


but yes current pattern of weak fronts is like el-nino at the moment

but maybe the remains of the low in the north tasman will slowly move south early next week as a easterly trough and we will get some rain out of it after all?

[NZstorm]

Yes, thats what I meant, Northerly flow/high dewpoint air.

[Manukau heads obs]

ps
the appeal to stop the wind turbines west of waiuku has been dropped because of costs

[Michael]

looks like a front to the west now wind mod WNW now 18c

[NZstorm]

You mean these things Brian.

Maybe they should put one of those turbines on the top of Michaels' house.

I think they should go ahead with Project Aqua. They have already spent $50 million on it apparently.

[Michael]

on the latest fiji map http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0641.html
if N.Z was smack in the middle it would be a classic NE

[tich]

Not likely to get another December like (2004) for a long time. I have never seen a summer month so cold and wet across nz.

Very unlikely to get a month more than 2C below normal for NZ as a whole these days. (December 2004 was -2.2C) Last time a month was so far below normal was April 1992. However, I believe there were several much colder than normal summer months from the 1940s and back, but the general climate I think was colder in NZ then.

Dull cloudy and cold day in Chch today, but no showers here. I still managed to get all my washing dry.

[Gary Roberts]

I think they should go ahead with Project Aqua. They have already spent $50 million on it apparently.

Compared with the projected costs for Aqua, $50m is nothing. As a local, I'm not so sure Aqua is a good thing.

On a different note, the next time some farmer blames JAFAs for any energy issues, inform him that the huge conglomeration of dairy farms near Ashburton now consume more electricity than the City of Auckland does.

It's time to reconsider nuclear energy generation, IMO.

[Gary Roberts]

where is the next lot of decent rain going to come from?

Um, I'm guessing from clouds in the sky. Just my opinion.

[Manukau heads obs]

what IS your problem with me Gary?

[RWood]

Not likely to get another December like (2004) for a long time. I have never seen a summer month so cold and wet across nz.

Very unlikely to get a month more than 2C below normal for NZ as a whole these days. (December 2004 was -2.2C) Last time a month was so far below normal was April 1992. However, I believe there were several much colder than normal summer months from the 1940s and back, but the general climate I think was colder in NZ then.

Dull cloudy and cold day in Chch today, but no showers here. I still managed to get all my washing dry.

There were - eg Jan 1939 - dry and sunny, but about 2.5C below the current 30-year mean.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

what IS your problem with me Gary?

I don't think he is attacking you personally, Brian, it's just his sense of humour which is a bit like mine, taking things litteraly, whatever

JohnGaul
No 2 WITH POSTINGS ON THIS FORUM

[Manukau heads obs]

but he has been needling me for ages now, and its getting a bit tiring

[Shepherds Valley WX]

Perhaps a touch of green eyed monster Brian? I have noticed (as I am sure other have) that Gary does seem to have a issue with you and the Weather Display software. It is almost as boring as Michael never ending SW Gale posts....

[Willoughby]

Perhaps a touch of green eyed monster Brian? I have noticed (as I am sure other have) that Gary does seem to have a issue with you and the Weather Display software. It is almost as boring as Michael never ending SW Gale posts....

I don't see what Gary has against Brian.. afterall Brian's the one showing the good old kiwi ingenuity and making something really cool out of his passion. And a little advertising may not hurt after all.. his potential market isn't all that huge.. it's not like he's making millions from it..

I think it's funny that if you two met in real life, there would be absolutely no problem!

Cheers

[Manukau heads obs]

i dont mind paying to the owner of the forum for the so called advertising i have done/might in advertantly do ini a round about way,,,
what say he?