NZ Weather Forum

Looks like the southerly change on monday will fire up storms along the east coast from canterbury north, models still moving around abit so wont throw any models or temps etc around, but its one to watch.

EDIT: Decied to change title on this one, after looking at Northland and the Auckland area Thunderstorms and very heavy rain in places are on the cards, over the period of the 20-22. Also low risk for tornadoes?? or is that me getting over excited

And now for the 501st post in over a year today since i sighned up to the forum .
Yes could be something on Monday Thunderwise here and perhaps over NI good spotting Steve and getting to it all first.
Cheers
JASON.



NORTH CANTERBURY THE BETTER SIDE OF THE WAIMAK.

I hope that you are right, Steve. Over the last week after the "Show Week heat", the Sw changes have thrown something 'abit extra' like the front yesterday.
Haven't checked the models yet as I have just got back from doing some preChristmas shopping, including buying a container for over $3000
Interesting to read on another post about Auckland 'drying up'
With all the thunderstorms up there over the last months, it seems likely that that is the only way they are getting precipiation up there from them the Waikato seems to be lush according to Willoughby's posts.



JohnGaul
No2 WITH NUMBERS OF POSTS ON THIS FORUM

03 Stormchaser wrote:EDIT: Decied to change title on this one, after looking at Northland and the Auckland area Thunderstorms and very heavy rain in places are on the cards, over the period of the 20-22. Also low risk for tornadoes?? or is that me getting over excited

Don't think anywhere in the North Island will be getting tornadoes in east to northeast flows.. has this ever happened NZstorm?
Pacific sea temps aren't as warm as the tasman at the moment.. and the coriolis force stops any easterly squall lines.

Thunderstorm risk remains low.. the most storms should form NE off the Far North out to sea

Where are you seeing 'very heavy rain' steve?
Or is that what Cantabs call it for 30mm coming from a low ?

Cheers

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Haven't checked the models yet as I have just got back from doing some b][/color]

Just had a quick look at ECMWF
Looks interesting down here for next week:)


JohnGaul
No 2 WITH NUMBERS OF POSTS ON THIS FORUM

Foggy Hamilton wrote: Where are you seeing 'very heavy rain' steve?
Or is that what Cantabs call it for 30mm coming from a low ?

Cheers

Im more refering to intense heavy rainfalls form convective clouds. Very possible in this situation.

The tornadoes is probably the excitment of weather getting to me, but will wait and see

Yes, looks like a thundery episode on the way for eastern parts of NZ next week. Cooler weather though.


Question from Foggy

Don't think anywhere in the North Island will be getting tornadoes in east to northeast flows.. has this ever happened NZstorm?

Tornadoes (landspout type) can develop on an unstable easterly/NE in the Waikato.

Was the tornado filmed near Hunua last December in an easterly quarter flow?

Just looked at ECMWF, yes looking good for Thunder over Eastern and Central area's on Monday esp Canterbury, Western areas should see one or two storms with the risk is much lower up this way .Charts may change.

Air looks cold and dry for a couple of days after that though.

Interesting to read on another post about Auckland 'drying up'

The suburb of Mt Eden is built on Volcanic rock, shallow soil , no clay, drys out quickly.

Yes Spwill, same here. Just looked at ECMWF and things do look good here for Monday....sigh....lol

Cheers

Doesn't look at all that good anymore anywhere for TS.. models have dried up considerably

The only places with decent rain coming up look to be Westland and Coastal Otago

some quite sudden changes in those model outputs, wonder where it's all heading? pity .. it was looking good before!

Add the Far North to the places set to get considerable rain above.

Turned mostly cloudy (Sc) now with light SW, 19c..

Anyway, I'm off to Oamaru this WE to soak up the sun and watch Penny Farthing races drinking Emerson's Ales at the Criterian
The only storm down there will be Jb 1236 climbing the Waiareka Bank with the return vintage steam train back to Dunedin on the Sunday

JohnGaul
NZTS

Dont know why everyone getting so worried about models changing?? havent you seen that before? they did that last weekend and wednesday before we had thunder, (esp saturday and sunday) the few days out were forever going from great day to marginal.

I still have faith for thunder down here and up north

btw foggy what u mean 'now' looks like heavy rain up north thats what I orginally posted??

Thats right Steve never say die I still have good faith for storms on Monday here and other places lets look on the positive sides here.
Wonderful day today sunshine cool NE wind and 18C.
Cheers
JASON.

Hi ya peeps... Dunno about thunder here...

Dont know the cloud name in the pic, but these clouds usually mean wind within 24 hours...

The latest models seem to agree on a cold southerly spreading over NZ Monday and Tuesday. So (as ground temps are warmer), thunder and hail are likely at least somewhere in NZ.

03 Stormchaser wrote:Dont know why everyone getting so worried about models changing?? havent you seen that before? they did that last weekend and wednesday before we had thunder, (esp saturday and sunday) the few days out were forever going from great day to marginal.

I still have faith for thunder down here and up north

btw foggy what u mean 'now' looks like heavy rain up north thats what I orginally posted??

Sorry Steve didn't see that..

Yes you can't trust the models when we have lows forming to the north to northwest of New Zealand.. especially during spring as we have warming seas and lsoils/land.. and it still remains relatively cold aloft as that takes a while to warm up. The result is extra wind and shallow mositure layers which change a lot between each balloon ascent. Making it hard for the models to predict!

Thunder is usually always a risk for the in spring when there's an incoming through/cold front. Just hopefully in arrives!

A lot of low cloud in the Tasman from this high

Cheers

Thunderstorm outlook already shaping up Sunday night High risk of storms down south.
From where iam sitting at the moment id say we might see a high risk for here in canty but then again who knows.
Hail could be 10-20mm maybe even bigger depending on what time the change hits and iam putting an 87% chance of thunder 100% being definate.
Wednesday might be next thunder possibility but will look into that later on.
In the meantime warm day ahead tomorrow 26C here's hoping but fine blue dome sky and light NE and 22C here at the moment.
A mother duck and her ducklings walked onto our property this morning very unusaul for us I think she may have come from the lakes behind us in the subdivison.
Cheers
JASON.

Monday looking great now for canterbury, I think Christchurch will get a thunderstorm this time aswell.
Tuesday is shaping up to be very blustry, with gale force winds up to at least +100kmph on Bp.

A partly cloudy day after a cold start, 22c/6c
Boring but wonderfully interesting....

Had a whirlwind develop just after midday on the school cricket grounds.. very bizzare. Mostly calm in the vicinity but a sudden strong gusty wind from the N developed adjacent to the field on a house and property and suddenly brought up a 8-10m whirlwind! It looked great when it tracked over the bowler's run-up area and whole heaps of dust were vacuumed up! 130m it travelled all up/1 minute.
The guys in the team liked calling it a tornado.. lol.. Had to do a bit of explaining..

Beats a moderate thunderstorm.. you get to stay dry!

Cheers

GFS suggesting rainy easterlies for the north from Thursday. There's our weak La Nina developing!
Well we already have a lot of rainy easterly events this year.. too many.

They seem to be attracted to cricket.
Quote from December 2003:

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Did I tell anyone in the New Zealand v Pakistan test match in Hamilton a small whirl wind happened around 2pm. It started by the food stalls (on dust and dirt) and took lots of hats with it. The whirlwind slowly moved eastwards, 1m a second onto the field of play. As it moived onto the grass it was invisible but some rubbish was in it. A remaining hat (one of the ones old ladies wear) started going in circles on the rim, along the ground about 10 times. It was hillarious.

[/quote]

Getting video archive from sky tv would be good

03 Stormchaser wrote:gale force winds up to at least +100kmph.

What a great pity that metrication has extended to the ends of the earth. A dismal end to the colonies, IIMSS.

Never mind, you've still got the loyal American colonies on that one.

Weatherlawyer wrote:

03 Stormchaser wrote:gale force winds up to at least +100kmph.

What a great pity that metrication has extended to the ends of the earth. A dismal end to the colonies, IIMSS.

So how fast is that in Hogsheads? I think somebody said 100kph equals 11,243 rods-to-the chain, but these newfangled units confuse me.

Oh why can't we go back to the good old days when we measured everything in duckets-to-Bibles? You always knew where you were with duckets-to-Bibles.