Thunderstorms 20-22/11/2005

[Storm Struck]

Just as i suspected a high risk for Thunder here tomorrow afternoon I see even a moderate risk during the morning in south canty tomorrow shaping up to be a good thunder day canty chasers start charging those camera batteries now .
Yes very wintry changeable week this week coming up.
Canterbury
MONDAY- Showers isolated thunderstorms laced with hail turning to rain at night winds strong Southerly.
TUESDAY-Showers easing winds abating and becoming fine by evening.
WEDNESDAY- Cold SW chnage showers some possibly heavy and thundery at first winds becoming stronger overnight.
THURSDAY- showers some heavy strong cold southerlies.
FRIDAY-Showers fine intervals winds decreasing.
Thats my forecast outlook for Canterbury from this point at this time but things could change.
Warm day out there today 27C here at the moment breezy NW wind should become stronger later with breif rain overnight possible.
Cheers
JASON.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Monday looking great now for canterbury, I think Christchurch will get a thunderstorm this time aswell.
Tuesday is shaping up to be very blustry, with gale force winds up to at least +100kmph on Bp.

Yes it does Steve.
I'm going all out in this one for tomorrow with my first 5 for the season
I'm being presumptuous with this as not checked with models,etc yet
Just got back from Oamaru where unfortunately there were no storms there as Jb1236 was unavailable and they just had a boring Dc4787 on the train with a DX horn
Anyway warm weather all day which made the Victorian festival quite pleasant Mighty NW ARch forms down there with nice lenticular forms over the amazing victorian buildings in Tyne Street. Temps in mid twenties.
JohnGaul
NZTS

[thunderbolt]

Hi all!

Great to see i'm not the only NZer crazy about extreme weather! A couple of questions...

1: Is there a website showing recent lightning strikes in NZ? I saw one about 18 months ago, can't find it now. I know there's something like metstrike, a network of 10 detectors nationwide developed my transpower and the metservice, but can't find anything further...

2: These La Crosse wireless weather stations, are they any good? Considering buying and installing one...

Looking forward to some thunder and hail in CHCH tomorrow!

Andrew

[Willoughby]

Hi all!

Great to see i'm not the only NZer crazy about extreme weather! A couple of questions...

1: Is there a website showing recent lightning strikes in NZ? I saw one about 18 months ago, can't find it now. I know there's something like metstrike, a network of 10 detectors nationwide developed my transpower and the metservice, but can't find anything further...

2: These La Crosse wireless weather stations, are they any good? Considering buying and installing one...

Looking forward to some thunder and hail in CHCH tomorrow!

Andrew

Welcome! hehe another Cantab

1. http://www.geographynetwork.co.nz/websi ... ke/run.htm
Steven Graham's tracker is much better for viewing storms live in Canty.
http://www.templeton.gen.nz

2. I don't know too much about La Crosse.. I just got a Davis Vantage Pro2 wireless station and it is stunning.. (See other thread for my setup) apart from the price!
Talk to Brian Hamilton (Manukau Heads Observer on the forum).. he knows his stuff.

Cheers

[Gary Roberts]

These La Crosse wireless weather stations, are they any good? Considering buying and installing one...

They're fine.

[Willoughby]

10pm satellite looks interesting.. Some decent storm cells lined up there, as well as the lee-side high cloud against the ridge as well as the cold airmass with hailstorms behind the front due in Fiordland soon


Looks SUPER for storms in Canterbury.. morning and afternoon heating then shwabang it looks on truly and chuck in some southwesterly gales too!

[NZstorm]

Thats a nice looking cold pool over the SI this morning.

Looks good for hail in Canterbury today. Looks to be some reasonable wind shear there, which could mean some sizeable hail.

[Manukau heads obs]

some big clear cut cb's on that front in the tasman
could be a very well defined cold front when it gets to the NI , and could be good for thunderstorms?
what a great weekend weather wise here, for this time of year, early summer weather

[03Stormchaser]

Thunderstorm in progress down in South Canterbury. Possibly the front may come through a bit earlier in chch?

[Gary Roberts]

Thunderstorm in progress down in South Canterbury. Possibly the front may come through a bit earlier in chch?

Rain overnight down here, and fresh snow on the ranges.

[RWood]

Persistent strong NW winds here for 36+ hrs - could be up to 15 months since
we've had anything like that duration (southerly storm of Aug 2004). Can't recall anything else "in between" that didn't blow itself out overnight.

Very litle rain has fallen, waiting to see if the southerly change boosts the month's total - only 3.4mm to Sunday.

[spwill]

Gary said,

Rain overnight down here, and fresh snow on the ranges.

Back to winter, the rest of the week looks cool to cold.

[Storm Struck]

After short period of brief rain this morning delivering 2mm its now fine wiht 18C and a cool blustery W wind nothing visable to south as of yet but it is early days.
Good to see another storm chaser in canty indeed where abouts in canty r u from?.
All ready for this arvo of ealrier so here goes.
Cheers
JAOSN.

[NZstorm]

I would have thought the surface winds in Canterbury would have gone onshore (NE) by now. The NE wind adds to CAPE and creates convergence. A land breeze with its low dewpoints kills the CAPE.

[tich]

I would have thought the surface winds in Canterbury would have gone onshore by now. The onshore wind adds to CAPE and creates convergence. A land breeze with its low dewpoints kills the CAPE.

Still a strong gusty westerly in Chch. Yes it could reduce likelihood of storms (MetService has reduced the risk of thunderstorms in Cantebrury from high to moderate), but the cold change could still be unstable enough to bring thunder and (even more likely) hail. Plus sunshine is warming the ground this morning.

Towering cu visible far to the southwest this morning, but otherwise clear skies in Chch.

[Storm Struck]

CU to S-SW now looks like southerly is on its way few strikes on tracker now ranging more southern alps area but id say its gonna go off within the next hour keep an eye on the trackers.
Cheers
JASON.

[spwill]

Still a strong gusty westerly in Chch. Yes it could reduce likelihood of storms

That pre Frontal land breeze will greatly reduce the chance Thunder for Coastal Canterbury.

[dogmelon]

The band of cloud just sits there drifting slowly closer. Looks like a fizzer so far. That wind wasn't much fun cycling in.

[NZstorm]

Interesting that the front out to the west of the NI is still maintaining quite a neat line. No lightning on the tracker though.

[Storm Struck]

Few seferics on radio now some getting stronger although not much on tracker yet getting some nice development out there CB clouds now looks like southerly not farr away.
Here's an idea of what its like here looking to the SE at 1pm.
Cheers
JASON.

[Willoughby]

Band of heavyish rain on the way soon for western North Island.
Rain clouds over Otago/Canterbury aren't topping any decent heights at all
Tropopause over Canty: 8000m (lowering risks)
North Island: 10.5km (LI down to 0 from Auckland to Rotorua)
Only thing lacking is CAPE.

MetService suggesting a better risk of storms up here tomorrow

Cloudy, NW has died a bit, 19c, dewpoint 12c.

[dogmelon]

Some swirling boilers going over, not doing much though.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just got home from work and had to go online to see what was happening.
and to review my prediction.
Even though a warm land breeze is not good for thunderstorm development, the sky does look incredibably unstable and now the wind has gone more to the south so that could enhance it more.
Few more so sfericals appearing on the radio as well.
Cloud now glaciating over the Port Hills.
Great line to the south not moving yet

JohnGaul
NZTS

[TonyT]

Lets stop calling the nor'wester a land breeze can we? Land breeze and sea breeze have specific meanings in meteorology, and dont just mean winds which blow from the land or from the sea. If you want to use a technical term (rather than the general term "nor'wester" which is what almost everybody else uses) then its correctly called a fohn wind.

I was about to post that I have never heard anyone from Canterbury ever refer to the nor'wester as a land breeze, and then John goes and writes it!

[Willoughby]

A 'land breeze' is often used during the night.. the opposite process of a sea breeze. NZ's most distinct land breeze can be found in Gisborne during the night.. a light cool nor'west katabatic wind coming down off the ranges and valleys.
Also Haast with a southeasterly.

Baro is dropping quickly.. had a few drops of rain.
Heavy rain soon