Thunderstorms 20-22/11/2005
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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- 03Stormchaser
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Thunderstorms 20-22/11/2005
Looks like the southerly change on monday will fire up storms along the east coast from canterbury north, models still moving around abit so wont throw any models or temps etc around, but its one to watch.
EDIT: Decied to change title on this one, after looking at Northland and the Auckland area Thunderstorms and very heavy rain in places are on the cards, over the period of the 20-22. Also low risk for tornadoes?? or is that me getting over excited
EDIT: Decied to change title on this one, after looking at Northland and the Auckland area Thunderstorms and very heavy rain in places are on the cards, over the period of the 20-22. Also low risk for tornadoes?? or is that me getting over excited
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- Storm Struck
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I hope that you are right, Steve. Over the last week after the "Show Week heat", the Sw changes have thrown something 'abit extra' like the front yesterday.
Haven't checked the models yet as I have just got back from doing some preChristmas shopping, including buying a container for over $3000
Interesting to read on another post about Auckland 'drying up'
With all the thunderstorms up there over the last months, it seems likely that that is the only way they are getting precipiation up there from them the Waikato seems to be lush according to Willoughby's posts.
JohnGaul
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Haven't checked the models yet as I have just got back from doing some preChristmas shopping, including buying a container for over $3000
Interesting to read on another post about Auckland 'drying up'
With all the thunderstorms up there over the last months, it seems likely that that is the only way they are getting precipiation up there from them the Waikato seems to be lush according to Willoughby's posts.
JohnGaul
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- Willoughby
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Re: Thunderstorms 20-22/11/2005
Don't think anywhere in the North Island will be getting tornadoes in east to northeast flows.. has this ever happened NZstorm?03 Stormchaser wrote:EDIT: Decied to change title on this one, after looking at Northland and the Auckland area Thunderstorms and very heavy rain in places are on the cards, over the period of the 20-22. Also low risk for tornadoes?? or is that me getting over excited
Pacific sea temps aren't as warm as the tasman at the moment.. and the coriolis force stops any easterly squall lines.
Thunderstorm risk remains low.. the most storms should form NE off the Far North out to sea
Where are you seeing 'very heavy rain' steve?
Or is that what Cantabs call it for 30mm coming from a low ?
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Re: Thunderstorms 20-22/11/2005
Im more refering to intense heavy rainfalls form convective clouds. Very possible in this situation.Foggy Hamilton wrote: Where are you seeing 'very heavy rain' steve?
Or is that what Cantabs call it for 30mm coming from a low ?
Cheers
The tornadoes is probably the excitment of weather getting to me, but will wait and see
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- NZstorm
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Yes, looks like a thundery episode on the way for eastern parts of NZ next week. Cooler weather though.
Question from Foggy
Was the tornado filmed near Hunua last December in an easterly quarter flow?
Question from Foggy
Tornadoes (landspout type) can develop on an unstable easterly/NE in the Waikato.Don't think anywhere in the North Island will be getting tornadoes in east to northeast flows.. has this ever happened NZstorm?
Was the tornado filmed near Hunua last December in an easterly quarter flow?
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Just looked at ECMWF, yes looking good for Thunder over Eastern and Central area's on Monday esp Canterbury, Western areas should see one or two storms with the risk is much lower up this way .Charts may change.
Air looks cold and dry for a couple of days after that though.
Air looks cold and dry for a couple of days after that though.
The suburb of Mt Eden is built on Volcanic rock, shallow soil , no clay, drys out quickly.Interesting to read on another post about Auckland 'drying up'
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Dont know why everyone getting so worried about models changing?? havent you seen that before? they did that last weekend and wednesday before we had thunder, (esp saturday and sunday) the few days out were forever going from great day to marginal.
I still have faith for thunder down here and up north
btw foggy what u mean 'now' looks like heavy rain up north thats what I orginally posted??
I still have faith for thunder down here and up north
btw foggy what u mean 'now' looks like heavy rain up north thats what I orginally posted??
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- Storm Struck
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Sorry Steve didn't see that..03 Stormchaser wrote:Dont know why everyone getting so worried about models changing?? havent you seen that before? they did that last weekend and wednesday before we had thunder, (esp saturday and sunday) the few days out were forever going from great day to marginal.
I still have faith for thunder down here and up north
btw foggy what u mean 'now' looks like heavy rain up north thats what I orginally posted??
Yes you can't trust the models when we have lows forming to the north to northwest of New Zealand.. especially during spring as we have warming seas and lsoils/land.. and it still remains relatively cold aloft as that takes a while to warm up. The result is extra wind and shallow mositure layers which change a lot between each balloon ascent. Making it hard for the models to predict!
Thunder is usually always a risk for the in spring when there's an incoming through/cold front. Just hopefully in arrives!
A lot of low cloud in the Tasman from this high
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Thunderstorm outlook already shaping up Sunday night High risk of storms down south.
From where iam sitting at the moment id say we might see a high risk for here in canty but then again who knows.
Hail could be 10-20mm maybe even bigger depending on what time the change hits and iam putting an 87% chance of thunder 100% being definate.
Wednesday might be next thunder possibility but will look into that later on.
In the meantime warm day ahead tomorrow 26C here's hoping but fine blue dome sky and light NE and 22C here at the moment.
A mother duck and her ducklings walked onto our property this morning very unusaul for us I think she may have come from the lakes behind us in the subdivison.
Cheers
JASON.
From where iam sitting at the moment id say we might see a high risk for here in canty but then again who knows.
Hail could be 10-20mm maybe even bigger depending on what time the change hits and iam putting an 87% chance of thunder 100% being definate.
Wednesday might be next thunder possibility but will look into that later on.
In the meantime warm day ahead tomorrow 26C here's hoping but fine blue dome sky and light NE and 22C here at the moment.
A mother duck and her ducklings walked onto our property this morning very unusaul for us I think she may have come from the lakes behind us in the subdivison.
Cheers
JASON.
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- 03Stormchaser
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Monday looking great now for canterbury, I think Christchurch will get a thunderstorm this time aswell.
Tuesday is shaping up to be very blustry, with gale force winds up to at least +100kmph on Bp.
Tuesday is shaping up to be very blustry, with gale force winds up to at least +100kmph on Bp.
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A partly cloudy day after a cold start, 22c/6c
Boring but wonderfully interesting....
Had a whirlwind develop just after midday on the school cricket grounds.. very bizzare. Mostly calm in the vicinity but a sudden strong gusty wind from the N developed adjacent to the field on a house and property and suddenly brought up a 8-10m whirlwind! It looked great when it tracked over the bowler's run-up area and whole heaps of dust were vacuumed up! 130m it travelled all up/1 minute.
The guys in the team liked calling it a tornado.. lol.. Had to do a bit of explaining..
Beats a moderate thunderstorm.. you get to stay dry!
Cheers
GFS suggesting rainy easterlies for the north from Thursday. There's our weak La Nina developing!
Well we already have a lot of rainy easterly events this year.. too many.
Boring but wonderfully interesting....
Had a whirlwind develop just after midday on the school cricket grounds.. very bizzare. Mostly calm in the vicinity but a sudden strong gusty wind from the N developed adjacent to the field on a house and property and suddenly brought up a 8-10m whirlwind! It looked great when it tracked over the bowler's run-up area and whole heaps of dust were vacuumed up! 130m it travelled all up/1 minute.
The guys in the team liked calling it a tornado.. lol.. Had to do a bit of explaining..
Beats a moderate thunderstorm.. you get to stay dry!
Cheers
GFS suggesting rainy easterlies for the north from Thursday. There's our weak La Nina developing!
Well we already have a lot of rainy easterly events this year.. too many.
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They seem to be attracted to cricket.
Quote from December 2003:
Getting video archive from sky tv would be good
Quote from December 2003:
[/quote]Foggy Hamilton wrote:Did I tell anyone in the New Zealand v Pakistan test match in Hamilton a small whirl wind happened around 2pm. It started by the food stalls (on dust and dirt) and took lots of hats with it. The whirlwind slowly moved eastwards, 1m a second onto the field of play. As it moived onto the grass it was invisible but some rubbish was in it. A remaining hat (one of the ones old ladies wear) started going in circles on the rim, along the ground about 10 times. It was hillarious.
Getting video archive from sky tv would be good
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So how fast is that in Hogsheads? I think somebody said 100kph equals 11,243 rods-to-the chain, but these newfangled units confuse me.Weatherlawyer wrote:What a great pity that metrication has extended to the ends of the earth. A dismal end to the colonies, IIMSS.03 Stormchaser wrote:gale force winds up to at least +100kmph.
Oh why can't we go back to the good old days when we measured everything in duckets-to-Bibles? You always knew where you were with duckets-to-Bibles.