NZ Weather Forum

Posted: **Wed 23/11/2005 12:44**

Thinking tomorrow and Friday will be a bit more than afternoon showers as the MetService are predicting over the mid-upper North Island as a trough moves in.
Some falls maybe heavy about Eastern Coromandel during these days.
Light winds aloft will mean it will stick around..

South to southeasterly winds should clear rain slowly from the North Island on Saturday leaving some instablity for a few afternoon showers possibly.

Looks quite interesting after this shallow low also, as a deepening low develops in the Tasman.

Edit: Original title: 'Some...' now 'Heavy...'

Posted: **Wed 23/11/2005 14:54**

A lot of dry is being pulled up into our region so this must reduce the chance of heavy rain and Thunderstorms but it is looking more interesting for the end of the week.

Posted: **Wed 23/11/2005 18:05**

wind went right back around to the W to NW here today....which took me by surprise...

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 09:20**

Started raining here around 10:30pm last night... Quite heavy at times and now is showering... No wind at all...

And damn we need it...

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 09:59**

Looking likely now that the Auckland/Northern Coromandel regions will see heavy rain from Friday night thru Saturday as easterlies start strengthening... tending southeast later.
Heaviest falls should fall between Warkworth and about Bream Bay, however only wind directions will determine where exactly on the day as the Coromandel is good for shadowing much of Auckland's east-southeasterly rain.

Saturday does look unseasonably cold, with a high of just 16c for Auckland.. 14c here.

Cheers

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 10:32**

rain will be welcome
getting some spits now from the cloudy westerlies ahead of the low system (which is not very well organised at the moment)

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 10:53**

Scattered rain has entered the arena here too..

ECMWF going for more of a dry view of things until Sunday.
NGP looks interesting with forecasting the low off Sydney to keep on churning and deepen early next week.

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 12:47**

MetService begins to see the risks, but for Northland mainly.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1113hrs 24-Nov-2005

HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR NORTHLAND
MetService will be watching the development and movement of a low
west of the North Island over the next couple of days. There are
indications that the low may become slow moving and more active close
to Northland from late Friday to about Saturday afternoon, after
which it should drift away to the east. An associated front in a
moist easterly flow may lie across parts of Northland during this
period with some heavy rainfalls possible in a band near the front.
Details of the positioning and intensity of this weather system
should becoming clearer in the next 24 hours.

Should be fine tomorrow morning.. giving way for afternoon convective thunderstorms across the greater region

On Friday, temperatures in the upper atmosphere generally cool over much of the country creating unstable conditions in the northwest of the South Island, and the north and west of the North Island.

A low will move to lie just to the northwest of Northland, and an associated slow moving rain band will likely have some embedded thunderstorms with it.These have the potential to give rainfall rates in the 10 to 25mm/hr range due to their slow motion.

Over parts of Waikato, Waitomo and Taumarunui, and despite a fair amount of cloudiness, there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. These will be triggered along a line of wind convergence brought about by daytime heating. These storms have the potential to produce hail up to 20mm in diameter and because they will be slow moving, rainfalls in the 10 to 25mm/hr range.

Rain/shower was recently heavy, temp has dropped to 14c, dewpoint 12c, fresh southwesterly.

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 13:24**

Yes looking interesting for you guys with low in the tasman should see some nice storms in the Waikato tomorrow afternoon/evening there Foggy

.
Isolated showers for here tomorrow becoming more confined to the foothills by saturday some of which might be heavy at times around there not sure if it will turn thundery or not i mean you have the E-SE winds coming up inland with the heat and all so could be chances there thats on Saturday,Sunday,Monday.
Wintry like wetaher here today occasional showers and fine intervals just previously had our first heavy shower of the day go over which was very black to south before it arrived.
Also a hail shower came over about half past eleven hail of 5mm in diamter just small stuff obviously upper air abit colder today.
Cheers
JASON.

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 14:17**

it will b great to get th eaction back again some rain woudl be welcome up here starting to dry out a bit I look forward to the up coming action

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 14:20**

Wintry like wetaher here today occasional showers and fine intervals just previously had our first heavy shower of the day go over which was very black to south before it arrived.
Also a hail shower came over about half past eleven hail of 5mm in diamter just small stuff obviously upper air abit colder today.

No hail in central Chch, but a period of showers passed over early afternoon. Still quite alot of cloud still around, but sun is shining and it's supposed to clear today. (though a few showers could redevelop tomorrow)

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 15:19**

had a windchange to the SW now
with a clearing shower
patches of blue here now, so the front has gone through

it might all end up occuring too far north?

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 20:14**

had a couple of showers round dinner time light winds now and low cloud clearing but high cloud moving in

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 21:04**

The eastern NI from East Cape to Cape Kidnappers looks like getting another hammering from strong southeasterlies and heavy rain later this weekend and into Monday. Yes the same areas that got devastated by the floods a month. Most likely not nearly as bad this time, but not pleasant for those still recovering from the big floods.

GAS and GFS models show 540 thickness line cutting though the northwest of the NI as well, so it appears like it'll be pretty cold as well - wind-chill adding to the bleakness.

Posted: **Thu 24/11/2005 23:02**

Well, I'm hoping we won't get drenched here. If we do, I'm hoping the modifications carried out here since we were last flooded might keep us dry inside. Fingers crossed!

Now, lets hope for some interesting electrical activity in those passing rain bands

What are the odds? Should I be charging all of my video cameras batteries in advance?

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 07:32**

all look pretty weak at the moment
just one half decent shower in the hauraki gulf

but that next upper level feature heading north might be the trigger
certainly lots of cold air has moved along way north...as a fuel for the cut off low that is expected to develop....but the whole thing could just end up being pushed north and stretched out into an easterly trough
time will tell

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 09:02**

Clear skies with a fresh southeasterly this morning, not often we have that.

Hopefully the Kaimais will block any rain here..

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 10:21**

there was a good towering cumulus out to sea here this morning, so there is instability here, and so with afternoon sun heating there could be some shower builds ups around
but as for the low deepining...cant see it happening at the moment!
but time will tell

maybe when the upper level feature moving north from west of central NZ overlays the lower level feature that is just west of kaitia, things will fire up more
there has been some sporadic CB's pop on the front drapped over the far north, you can see them on the sat sequence...

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 11:34**

still rain in the latest forecast
the upper level clouds are moving in from the ENE here
and the surface wind has been moving around more to the east
barometer stopped rising now

there is billowing of the cumulus occuring, so good isntability up there
DP only 10oC
temperature rising up, now 17

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 12:26**

Heavy rain set to hit the Dargaville region firstly this afternoon; a low risk of thunder.. will wait your report Squid!

Certainly some potentials for flooding from about Orewa to Bream Bay & northeastern Coromandel Peninsular.
Southeasterlies rising to gale Saturday morning about the eastern coasts.
Auckland city can expect over 35mm-45mm from this trough, 10mm here.

Cold.. i'm thinking a high for Auckland of just 14c, as well as Hamilton.
MetService going for 17c in Ak

Cheers

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 12:28**

just mowed the lawns...not much too mow...its getting so dry here....so rain will be welcome!
(the inlaws are arriving later today you see, LOL)

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 12:45**

i can see now some big CB's that have now developed way to the north of the city
the rain radar shows then between great barrier and bream head...i.,e the outer hauraki gulf
the tops are being blown off from the west

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 14:54**

clouds building up all around now, a shower over the bomaby hills now
rain is a brewing, horray

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 15:50**

clouds building up all around now, a shower over the bomaby hills now

.

Photo-convective shower in our SE, Hunua Ranges I think.

Posted: **Fri 25/11/2005 15:50**

heavy shower now over east pukekohe area
NE picked up here now, so cloud build up over us here has been dispersed
looks like drizzle just NE of the city now

things are happening

hopefully this reporting will help the forecasters confirm what they see from other means

edit, rain radar shows that shower is over Karaka
so thats what the top looks like, thanks spwill...too much foreground cloud here to see the top, LOL

rain radar shows that the drizzle patch over the city has been moving down from the north....so the upper level cloud and rain systems are moving south...

NZ Weather Forum

Heavy Rain, Easterlies developing

Heavy Rain, Easterlies developing