Unsettled westerly/ southwesterly pattern for coming week

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tich
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Unsettled westerly/ southwesterly pattern for coming week

Unread post by tich »

This pattern is suggested by the models for the coming week, following the trough on Sunday and Monday. MetService doesn't mention it in its latest long-range, but some of the models also suggest quite a wintry outbreak for Tuesday or Wednesday. GASP goes as far as putting a 520 thickness line across the lower South Island.

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Could be the potential for thunder conditions, Ben/Aaron, if the conditions are right.
Wait and see

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Unread post by Thunder »

Here's hoping! :) :) ;) ;)
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Unread post by Michael »

Southwesterlies-YUKK! :(
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Likes like there is potential for thunder this week, more especially on the South Island West Coast. If the prognosis for a low over the North island end of the week comes off, then thunderstorms possible, especially inland
Thurs or Fri. Have to wait and see.[/img]
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Unread post by tich »

We must certainly be in spring now, with the weather being so changeable. Last evening's short band of showers quickly cleared Chch, resultingin clear skies and a frost. Now we've got a northwest arch, though not a warm northwester. (chilly northeasterly instead)
Likes like there is potential for thunder this week, more especially on the South Island West Coast.
I think they're getting quite a bit of heavy rain and thunder, especially in Fiordland where snow has apparently been falling to 'low' levels, closing the Milford Road. I notice Haast was down to 1.9C by 9PM last night - had it cleared, or was it snowing to low levels there?
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Unread post by Michael »

It is even worse than the 1st week of July up here with the wet windy cold weather -it is marginally better today but still mostly cloudy the seasons lag now as we get this cold wet weather in October too now and then it feels like spring at Christmas
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Unread post by Achten »

Nice stormy sat pic, cold air entering the Tasman sea. Could get very interesting on the West Coast of both Islands.
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Unread post by Thunder »

But nothing in canterbury...sniff :( . But I see on the radar bits of purple look to be on the west coast of the South Island (your right Achten). If you (anyone) read a post of mine on another thread from a few days back you'll remember I said I videoed lightning going off over the southern alps (perhaps towards the west coast side more) back during the beginning of this year. Does anyone think that it could be possible to view ligthning again tonight if there's Ts over the southern alps?

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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by NZstorm »

There will be a thunderstorm or two in the Alps Aaron, but for the lightning to really go off there needs to be more moisture. So it won't be a great night for observing wildfire(distant lightning).

This type of situation would be good for thunder in Canterbury later in the spring when the land starts warming up abit.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yeah, I would agree with you Steven. Despite the low barometer etc., it is not really the situation for Ts. Nothing sferical I've heard today.
Lots of cold air going up the Tasman sea to feed the warmer seas/air north of the Country. With a weak La Nina upon us, situations like this will still continue to plague the northern part of NZ with lots more wet weather especially this spring.
Anyway, another cold snap tomorrow, but only a boring southerly change, could be quite windy as the borometer rises




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Unread post by Michael »

We will get it up here so we can dream on about summer looking at Fiji etc on the net stuck indoors while the rain continues :(

[quote="NZ Thunderstorm SocWith a weak La Nina upon us, situations like this will still continue to plague the northern part of NZ with lots more wet weather especially this spring.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Ok, regardless of whether it's la nina or nino (whatever?), if the situation is right and that low creaps up the east cost of the South Island (980 hpa, yeh that'll do) and a southerly hits Chch at 3-4pm when it's been a nice sunny hot day with a NE breeze, will a thunderstorm eventuate?

I see tomorrow that there is meant to be a NW then NE (with clear skies might I add ) then Southerly change come up towards Chch at about 3pm. Now, with these clear skies, NE, low barometer, then the southerly, isn't that a good thunderstorm type of situation. I guess hail is only forcast though because it is possibly to early in the year as you said Steven (not warm enough), plus that K index isn't in the Ts range for here.

But as John would say:
The barometer is quite low so anything could happen !. And, Could be the potential for thunder conditions, Ben/Aaron, if the conditions are right. Wait and see

I'm sorry John! I just want a Ts. Roll on summer!

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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by Thunder »

This here shows one or two CG strikes in the Cantab area over the past 5 days, I'm satisfied! hehe. ;)

Oh well it didn't work, the link is http://www.metservice.com/lightning enter the site:

then go to METSTRIKEWEB and then view recent NZ data.

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Aaron Wilkinson
Last edited by Thunder on Wed 03/09/2003 20:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I would say yes Aaron. If it was December I would expect afternoon thunder in Canterbury tomorrow.

Also, the K index is only a rough guide, and can change quite quickly.
Best guide is a bit of experience with your local climate.
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Unread post by Dean. »

Strong wind blowing from the west now at 9.00pm,quite gusty at times.
Looks to be some heavy rain falling in the foothills with snow at higher elevations.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I'm picking up weak sferics this evening possibly from the thunderstorms off the West Coast. First sfericals for ages. The 9pm satelitte pic shows good Ts off the West coast. Imagine if they were off the east coast of the SI.
I'll be surprised if anything happens tomorrow, Aaron, just the usuual boring day of weather, frustrating to us weather enthusiasts and a great deal of happeniness to people like Michael!!?


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Unread post by Michael »

John you should move up to Auckland (You live in sheltered Canty with the alps )its ready to rain yet again here with the NWer has pickedup to prefrontal conditions (if you listen to our local Newstalk ZB for instance) they sound so dreary mentioning rain,thundery falls,wind etc day after day but when a fine day is mentioned they say it with so much enthusiasm
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Unread post by Thunder »

Metservices forcast for Canterbury today:

For Marlborough and Canterbury
Showers, with isolated thunderstorms and hail gradually spreading north during the day. Snow lowering to 1000 metres.

I new there could be a chance of something happing! With that low as I described yesterday..... But still, as I've learn't (I think) thunderstorms are hard to forcast sometimes so nothing is definate yet, I'm still hoping though! The video cameras batteries are charged and the camera has fresh film, I'm ready! Seen as I'm setting up my new business and I'm just out of school I'm in a sort of limbo at the moment and am able to do stuff (Ts for e.g.).

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Unread post by tich »

For Marlborough and Canterbury
Showers, with isolated thunderstorms and hail gradually spreading north during the day.
No sign of it yet - still quite calm with variable high cloud in Chch
For Marlborough and Canterbury. Snow lowering to 1000 metres.
Snow is now expected to 600 metres on Porter's Pass. I see chains are already essential on Arthur's Pass, due to snow. There must've been snow to low levels in inland western Southland last night as well - AA report mentioned snow on a road near Ohai.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A sort of a Cb top out to the NW of my place as I type. some sferics on the radio. I noticed some instability there across the plains on the way home from work around 2:45pm. Light southerly here no NE unfortunately.
Aaron, hope you have your camera ready.


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Unread post by Thunder »

Hi John

Yep, I see the big Cb! I went out and took quite a few photos and went through a whole film (dam film!, need digital!). There must be some good upper wind shear as the anvil tails out behind it for quite a bit. I haven't noticed any sferics though, probably because I was out taking photos! but I'm at home now (4:35pm) and nothing on the radio. I videoed it aswell although no lightning observed, probably because I'm so far away from it!

Unless anything else comes through there's nothing more I can video, I was hoping it would come over towards me so I could video some lightning but it didn't.

Do you think anything else could come through John, what did you observe or perhaps video?

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Unread post by Thunder »

I'm hearing on the radio that there could be Thunderstorms in Canterbury tonight, I think unlikely but that's probably because my video camera's broken! I also think it's unlikely, oh! (5:14pm) and I just heard sferics on the radio, mayby thy will happen. John, if a Ts comes by tonight, please video it. I'm without my thunder equipment!

Looks to be heavy precipitation along the plains from that Cb mentioned before.

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Sorry Aaron, the Thunderstorm potential looks to be to the NW from ChC and further than that. Oxford got some hail according to Jimmy Hick on the TV One weather tonight. I wonder if Tony T at Amberley, heard a few claps?
It will be a Micheal day here tomorrow before the next front.

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