Unstable Week Ahead

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Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

watching the sat image animation, there is a thickening and developing cloud sheet over the upper NI and a active cb line just to the north of that.....
i think things are developing nicely now over the upper NI
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Unread post by GreggWard »

spike_01 wrote:Just dumped down here and it looks like more to come... View is toward the North... 8)
Spike,

I could see that development from Palmy. It looked very inpressive as it built up.

I can see another towering cumulus developing, probably to your NW/N. This one seems a bit further N than the previous cells.



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Unread post by ricky »

Decent thunderstorms around lake Taupo now by the look of it...
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Yep Greg it is pretty mean looking out there right now, but it is still... Not heading here just now..
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Decent thunderstorms around lake Taupo now by the look of it...
_________________
Yes, Isolated Thunderstorms over the central North Island now and no doubt over the lower NI soon. Upper NI too overcast for afternoon convection. We have 8/8 Altocumulus. :x
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Unread post by GreggWard »

NZstorm wrote:
Decent thunderstorms around lake Taupo now by the look of it...
_________________
Yes, Isolated Thunderstorms over the central North Island now and no doubt over the lower NI soon. Upper NI too overcast for afternoon convection. We have 8/8 Altocumulus. :x
Just heard distant thunder to the W/NW. Going off to chase. I will report back later.
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spike_01
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Yep again... Can hear it from here gregg... Off to the NW... Over Towards the coast... Another Cloud pic below... 8)
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Southland getting a thunderstorm at the moment. Looks like quite a number of active cb's a across the North Island.
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Unread post by Area51 »

Thunderstorm with heavy rain and visibility reducing to 5km at Palmerston North Airport at 1450. And its moved off again by 1500!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Can see t/cu cb to far SE from here in Grey Lynn.
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Re: Unstable Week Ahead

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

03 Stormchaser wrote:Looks like next week will be quite unstable over the period Tuesday-Wednesday for Canturbury anyway. Good high Cape, Li's etc

As long as the models dont change to much we should be for some good storms.
Models have changed for canty. Bugger.
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Unread post by GreggWard »

GreggWard wrote:
NZstorm wrote: Yes, Isolated Thunderstorms over the central North Island now and no doubt over the lower NI soon. Upper NI too overcast for afternoon convection. We have 8/8 Altocumulus. :x
Just heard distant thunder to the W/NW. Going off to chase. I will report back later.
I have attached a couple of photos that I took of the approaching storm, from just W of Palmerston North, as well as a photo of some flooding that occured, just down the road (my rain gauge recorded 15mm within the period 14:56 -> 15:11).

Please excuse the quality of the photos, but they were taken with a Sharp camera phone.

I only really saw CC lightning, of about 1-3 per min. Storm seems to have travelled in a SE/S direction, down toward Shannon/Opiki.

From the 4:00PM radar it looks like ther are some further heavy showers out to the NW of Palmy.
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Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looks like the coromendal range is giving a uplift to produce that CB line we can see to the south of us...which shows on the rain radar nicely
changeable high level cloud here....
alot of rain cloud forming as the 2 lows colide, way to the west of taranaki....the warnings have been lifted for taranaki i see...
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Cool pics gregg, esp with a phone...

Gone all quiet here now, but still 100% overcast... 8)
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

not bad for a cell phone at all!
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Re: Unstable Week Ahead

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

03 Stormchaser wrote:Models have changed for canty. Bugger.
Some bizarre weathery things happening here in the southern Mackenzie, almost stormlike. If anything exciting happens I'll let you know.
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Manukau heads observer wrote: i see the met service have down grounded the rain for today forecast:
Cloudy with showers, some heavy in the afternoon and evening.
they need to look out the window more and not at the models so much?
but, now thats its not forecast, whats the bet widespread rain develops now...all that is needed is for general instability to develop...alll the ingredients are there...
Quite right, forecasting has been well below standard of late. Few spit of precip, but nothing compared to 'Rain, sometimes heavy.' :?

A warm 25c today, humidities down, northeasterly has freshened nicely

Great pics gregg!
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wind easing a bit now, was up to 30kts, barometer doing its daily rise at this time of day again...


nothing much changed to give rain really.....
the forecasters put it off till tomorrow....again...
i have seen it like this before ,.....can go on like this for days....

there was a few lines of showers in the waikato today...
but even the far north's rain nad moved out to the SSW and out to see...

summer rain in the upper NI is always a hard one to pick correct...you have to tell yourself, its summer, its not likely to rain as much as you think...
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Unread post by Michael »

Its looking more like a classic NE forecast with rain north of Ruapehu and in the east and drizzel along the SI eastcoast and little wind from Wanganui to Wellington
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Re: Unstable Week Ahead

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

03 Stormchaser wrote:
Models have changed for canty. Bugger.

Yes. What a bar steward ! :evil: :x
Friday could have hope here especially inland with the occasional tornado possible??? :D

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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Yea been looking at friday very interesting!!

*Rubs Hands together with glee :twisted:
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Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

a ha
rain bands finally moving down onto the far north
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Manukau heads observer wrote:a ha
rain bands finally moving down onto the far north
Nothing in it for the North Island, will just roll onto Westland :?
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Unread post by Thunder »

That is some nice pic's for a cell Graeme! And nice pics to re the clouds etc.

I look at the thunderstorm posts on here and from other threads every day regarding the North Island and love all the new pics coming up on here. Keep it coming!

Hopefully something here on Thursday or Friday.

Cheers
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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like Northland will finally get the forecast heavy thundery rain overnight and Auckland tomorrow.

Looks like a cooler more stable air mass is going to encroach onto the country from the east. I am picking diurnal low cloud and drizzle for eastern areas this week, including Auckland. Warmer unstable conditions should return to NZ later in the week.
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