Unstable Week Ahead

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 12/12/2005 22:42

spwill wrote: I thought this Cb cloud this Evening was about west of Huntly so I was very wrong.
zoom lens in use here.

I may have been wrongly quoted there spwill?? (I think!

) that Cb would've been west of Raglan (down from Huntly's longitude) at that time after sunset. Great shot!

Manukau heads obs · Mon 12/12/2005 23:04

there are great looking cb lines going around that north tasman low, and they streth all the way up to new caledonia even now....
but will they move enough SE to get down to us...maybe only as far as the far north...
time will tell
no 2 days are the same in the auckland area,...tomorrow could be a different story allright

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/12/2005 05:40

Good morning all! A fine and mostly clear morning, 14.8c here.
Waiting in super expectation for possible supercells

The last few MT-SAT images has the storm cells absolutely exploding, especially within the last 3 hours.

Severe thunderstorms now apparent in Northland, or is that just Ricky's tracker not plotting it correctly? Not much on the RR.

Earthquake this morning near Woodville, 2.55am, 5 on the richter scale and 25km deep. Hmmmmm things to come maybe??

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/12/2005 06:14

Partly cloudy morning in Auckland 18C.

Yes, some huge cb's near the top of Northland.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/12/2005 06:38

the wind is a bit more easterly here today....and there is more low cloud, which extends from here in a line to the eNE...so maybe it will develop more as the day heats up

those cb lines to the north are very well defined now, and they will brush the far north, but the low is not moving any closer, so the are not going to make much progress SE still...yet....but that front coming off australia might help to shunt it all this way a bit?

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Tue 13/12/2005 06:41

Good morning

Yes, that Northland storm was ranging too close due to the high lightning strength and height I would guess! I have reset the ranging to see what happens..
That has to be a good start to the day!

So..,. who's heading where today?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/12/2005 06:43

That's what I was starting to think Brian

Looks like we're gonna have to rely on localised land and sea based convection today, still high risks of thunderstorms in place

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/12/2005 06:55

Yes, unfortunately that intensely unstable area out to our west/NW hasn't got much of a show at getting here due to ridging coming in from the east.

So land based convection should trigger a few afternoon thunderstorms over the NI. Central NI/Taranaki looks the highest risk area as there will be good surface heating and high temps.

If there is some good afternoon heating in Southland/Central Otago, temperatures will rise sharply down there triggering Isolated thunderstorms. But a lot of frontal debris cloud down there this morning.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/12/2005 08:15

i think eventualy the whole system will move slowly SE and close enough to t give heavy thundery rain to the top half of the NI....maybe in a couple of days time?
as each spiral arm, which now stretch into the tropics, moves around the low, its gona each time swing a bit closer....at least i hope so...this dry this early on in the summer is a disaster waiting to happen

today: because its a bit more ENE wind, there could be shower lines develop off the hunua ranges so that waikuku/pukekohe get showers today...for a forecast for this area

but yes as per nzstorm, big showers again for wanganui/taranaki

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 13/12/2005 08:49

May well be periods of rain for upper Northland today with some big dumps. A lot of Lightning up that way this morning.

Chance for showers over Ak today is looking much better as we have some large Cu around already.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/12/2005 09:04

Temp has risen significantly from 15c at 7am to 22c now!

Convection has well and truly gotten underway with Cumulus towering now.

Baro on the incline.

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Tue 13/12/2005 11:33

Already have our first two Cbs up, in the Manawatu. A large one out to the NW towards Ohakea and a smaller one to the NNE of Palmerston North. Getting a couple of strikes on the lightning detector from the larger Cb.

Gregg

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/12/2005 16:52

A fizzer in the Waikato so far

- northeasterly too fresh.. very warm though on 25c, Hokitika on 26c though!

Very heavy thundery rain present in Cape Reinga (60mm last 6 hours)

This is the FOURTH consecutive day Wanganui is experiencing afternoon electrical storms can you believe! I now assume along with the Far north that these places are the most vunerable to thunderstorms during a humid northeast flow. Reason being for Wanganui i'm guessing is because the Whanganui National Park sends out quite a bit of moisture and carries it SW over Wanganui, only to be meeted with a southerly sea breeze. Also there tends to be a convergance line present in the Horowhenua-Taranaki regions.. well that's my theory anyway?

Righto, i'm melting, time to feel that breeze

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Tue 13/12/2005 17:29

Went to Palmerston Nth and Wanganui today... This is a scenic pic of Mt Ruapehu...

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/12/2005 17:33

there is alot of steep and rugged hill country inland from wanganui that will be a great breeding zone of the heat showers in the humid NE ...thats my guess...and yes maybe a sea breeeze in there too

that rain band over the far north...surely it will keep moving slowly SSE as the moisture feed and upper level winds coming down from the tropics now will help...what do you all think?

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Tue 13/12/2005 18:02

Manukau heads observer wrote:there is alot of steep and rugged hill country inland from wanganui that will be a great breeding zone of the heat showers in the humid NE ...thats my guess

There was one helluva downpour about 15 kms south of Wanganui... Very difficult driving...

When I got there, the roads were dry but there was surface flooding on the side of some streets...

Note the steam coming off the road...

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Tue 13/12/2005 18:28

Bloody hot here 30.4 degrees , sunny day with some cbs developing later

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/12/2005 18:37

Bloody hot here 30.4 degrees , sunny day with some cbs developing later

Looks to be some cb's over western Southland.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/12/2005 18:43

thisn high cloud now covers the sky high
so the front out to the west has made some eastwards movement today

maybe a new low will form way to the north of us and move down onto us, re all that large rain cloud mass way to the north...
thouthts anyone?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/12/2005 18:51

maybe a new low will form way to the north of us and move down onto us

Will need to see the ridge weaken before any serious action reaches Auckland. That looks atleast 48Hrs away.

I notice the 4pm temps at both Milford Sound and Hokitika were 26C. A contrast to the dank weather on the east coast.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 13/12/2005 18:59

just watched tv1 weather, thats what they had...a low to the north, moving south.....hummm!
more middle layer cloud moving in from the NW now...
might be a change on the way...
(for ever hopeful we will get rain out of this system eventualy!)
20mm in 1 hour in wanganui

check out this new met service prognosis (bracknell model):
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... lias=swp72
now that looks like a heavy rain maker (unless the rain bands split...out to the SE and SW of the low (typicaly!))

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Tue 13/12/2005 19:26

Foggy Hamilton wrote:A fizzer in the Waikato so far - northeasterly too fresh.. very warm though on 25c, Hokitika on 26c though!

This is similar to how today panned out in the Manawatu.

The initial Cbs that went up before lunch didn't last that long and were unable to venture any further south than the northern Manawatu/southern Rangitikei. I guess this was mostly due to the brisk Easterly being funnelled through the Manawatu Gorge and out across the Manawatu plains.

Things are looking a bit better for tomorrow, here, with lighter winds forecast.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 13/12/2005 19:45

Its unusual to get rain there in a NE must be a seabreeze there

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 13/12/2005 20:00

Some rain in North and Central Otago during the last couple of days but fine now.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 13/12/2005 20:27

Still thunder on the cards for Thursday/Friday in Canterbury.

*offtopic I have added a small 14mb Video clip of the Gust front chase from 12/11/2005 and updated the chase reports http://03stormchaser.com/StormChaseReports.html