Unstable Week Ahead

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 11/12/2005 22:06

Yes. It depends on the anticyclone to the East/Se of us. It should intensify then weaken before moving off to the east.
By doing so hopefully it will 'invigourate' the weakoning and shallow trough in the Tasman Sea. This could spawn interesting weather down here in the later part of the weak especially if upper levels can get it act together

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Mon 12/12/2005 08:16

CB line to my NW moving out to sea...
CB line to my SE not geting any closer (a new frontal boundary)
we are in between here, still no rain that is really needed for farmers
and i see the met service have given up on the rain for northland, sqaushed the heavy rain warning

its kept them guessing

but there is now shower area way out to the NE which should get a bit closer
DP has actualy been slowly dropping over the last 24 hours, i guess the airmass is more orginating from the other side of the blocking high than in the sub tropics now

that 2nd low stuffed things up,,, the initial low got wrapped up in it, warts (fronts) and all

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 12/12/2005 08:44

we are in between here, still no rain that is really needed for farmers

looks like we will have sunshine in the Auckland area today, should set off some local afternoon showers.
Hopefully a heavy shower over your farm Brian.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 12/12/2005 08:59

the last 3 days forecast for auckland is what gives forecasters a bad name
rain forecast every day....then changed to , rain developing tomorrow...every day for the last 3 days....

and now the sun is out

it had me guessing too....
it sure looked like it was going to develop, the rain ,at times...was realy teasing us badly
but there gotta be some lesson learned here......

(though some areas of the upper NI have had shower lines)

Zanman · Unread post by **Zanman** » Mon 12/12/2005 11:10

Well we have had rain here this morning 4mm so far.

The day started out looking like a repeat of yesterday with threat of rain all day, but no action. We had a temperature drop just after 8am and started to get some rain shortly afterwards.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 12/12/2005 11:19

yeah, there is now a weak warm front over the BOP, and a weak cold front to the west of northland, and auckland area is in between....
what i think will happen is that some good shower lines will develop to the NE of northland and move down onto the auckland area....you can only hope!

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Mon 12/12/2005 11:40

Just received from the Met Service...

SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAIKATO WAITOMO TAUMARUNUI TAUPO TARANAKI TAIHAPE
WANGANUI MANAWATU GISBORNE HAWKES BAY WAIRARAPA
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 10:52am Monday 12-Dec-2005

SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ABOUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
ISLAND THIS WEEK

MetService is forecasting heavy afternoon showers and thunderstorms to affect
many parts of the central and southern North Island this week.

Thunderstorms can be expected today, Tuesday and probably Wednesday, and are
most likely during the afternoon and early evening in western areas from Waikato
to the Kapiti Coast and also about the ranges of the Central Plateau, Gisborne
and Hawkes Bay.

Forecaters warn that these afternoon thunderstorms are expected to produce
localised areas of heavy rain, and some of the storms may be severe with a few
intense downpours resulting in surface flooding in low lying areas and possible
flash flooding in some mountain streams.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Mon 12/12/2005 11:59

Where's the "throwing my toys" emoticon?

Heading to Southland this week so I might have a better chance for some action (thunder action that is

) tomorrow.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 12/12/2005 12:16

I doubt there will be any significant convection around Auckland as the freash NE will prevent the west coast sea breeze from developing. Hence another day in Auckland without rain in a day where it was forecast.

Inland NI is looking good for afternoon thunder.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 12/12/2005 12:25

doubt there will be any significant convection around Auckland as the freash NE will prevent the west coast sea breeze from developing

Fresh NE breeze will keep any Auckland shower development to the western and southern high ground.

More medium and high cloud over central NI today, this will reduce convection down there this afternoon.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/12/2005 12:41

Manukau heads observer wrote:the last 3 days forecast for auckland is what gives forecasters a bad name

Only if you dont understand what a forecast is. Forecasters dont actually know what the weather is going to do, they are providing their opinion based on all sorts of data and experience. Inherent in the concept of a forecast is the idea that sometimes it will be wrong. If its not expected to be wrong some of the time then its not a forecast, its knowledge.

In this case not only did all the guidance point to rain, but so did the exeperience (I'm talking personally here, not on behalf of any particular organisation). Perhaps people are so used to the forecast being very close to the outcome almost all the time these days, that when its not its really noticed?

Manukau heads obs · Mon 12/12/2005 13:14

did you read all of my postings?
i did not atauly say they have a bad name, i just saying that the public would not very impressed...i.e NZstorm posted worse, and you have not quoted him (he said its making a mockery of the forecasts, the weather pattern)
i did say that lessons could be learned
and the fact that in the auckland area, in summer, rain is actualy hard to come by half the time (i.e best to lean on the side of less rain), thats lesson one
did you see where i also posted that the weather pattern had me guessing, too,and that I was putting in short range forecasts what i thought might happen, myself, based on what i could see happening on based on a long time of local knowledge
i do do a local paper forecast for the week ahead, so I do know some and appreciate the problems and difficulties.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/12/2005 13:26

Calm down Brian, no offence intended, yes I did read all your postings. Just thought I would provide a forecaster's perspective...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 12/12/2005 13:36

Have heard quite a few people complaining about the inaccurate weather forecasting for Auckland over the past few days.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 12/12/2005 13:58

spwill wrote:Have heard quite a few people complaining about the inaccurate weather forecasting for Auckland over the past few days.

Thats good to hear. It shows that people's expectations are really quite high. 30 years ago inaccurate forecasts wouldnt have rated a mention.

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Mon 12/12/2005 14:14

From work I can see distant Cbs lining the W-> N horizon. The lightning tracker is showing a small amount of activity over the last 0.5hr, towards the central NI.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 12/12/2005 15:09

TonyT wrote:
spwill wrote:Have heard quite a few people complaining about the inaccurate weather forecasting for Auckland over the past few days.
Thats good to hear. It shows that people's expectations are really quite high. 30 years ago inaccurate forecasts wouldnt have rated a mention.

I agree. And I think that the current type of scenario is particularly difficult for forecasting. The alternation here of "fair periods" and odd spits of rain, with warm temps away from the "fake sea breeze" is an example of the complexities involved.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 12/12/2005 15:19

It shows that people's expectations are really quite high. 30 years ago inaccurate forecasts wouldnt have rated a mention.

Peoples expectations should be higher with the much improved technology availible to forecasters today.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 12/12/2005 19:08

This is a fact...
Tomorrow will deliver!
That relatively, very unstable airmass to the northwest of Northland at the moment should bear southeast a little spreading lifted indicies below around -1. Upper level winds tending NNW at last

. Fine and dry mornings for Waikato - BoP - Volcanic Plateau, giving 100% potential convection.

Auckland city should escape thunderstorms but will remain very hot ( around 28Â°C!) and should see some showers by evening.
Morning thunder for Northland only.
An area of NE/SE convergance from Taranaki to Dannevirke should bring the most severe thunderstorms tomorrow across that line around 4-5pm. Inland afternoon tstorms, especially in the northwest and south for the South Island.Tropopause height should be around 13km here.
Can't wait!

Cheers

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 12/12/2005 20:25

Clear skies over AK but one cb trying to build to SSW. Is that over Mt Pirongia?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 12/12/2005 20:41

Clear skies over AK but one cb trying to build to SSW. Is that over Mt Pirongia?

Much further down the coast, about 80km from here. I notice you Aucklanders underestimate how far away the Cb's are when peering down into the Waikato. Some nice T/Cj to our WSW off coast at present

EDIT: Ahh we're looking at the same thing! Can see it on the radar, 30km off shore between Raglan and Aotea Harbour. But yes there is a Cb to our south, 80km down the coast.

Has anyone else noticed that the upgraded Wellington RR is very sensitive to the Kaikoura/Rimutaka Ranges? Picking up way too many echoes from there I think.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 12/12/2005 21:49

All the while here in Chch, it's been dull and unusually humid. Drizzly this afternoon, turning to light rain from about mid/late afternoon. Not the weather I particularly enjoy, but our area does need moisture as there's been recent talk of a looming drought.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 12/12/2005 22:15

yes Ben overcast and drizzly alright and looks like to continue all week thanks to the annoying anticyclone to the SE of us

Regarding Friday, I have dropped the level of 5 down to 3 sadly

JohnGaul
NZTS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 12/12/2005 22:32

Just to note John Thursday actually looks much Better If you look at the models. I also thought Friday but looks like thursday could be a better bet.
Yes drizzle by midday off and on turned to light rain by late afternoon has stopped now though only enough for 1mm lol.
http://www.vastormphoto.com/closestrikevideo.htm
Mite wanna check that site out if yo are interested in close Lightning strikes its abit American lol.
Cheers
Jason.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 12/12/2005 22:34

foggy said

Much further down the coast, about 80km from here. I notice you Aucklanders underestimate how far away the Cb's are when peering down into the Waikato. Some nice T/Cj to our WSW off coast at present

I thought this Cb cloud this Evening was about west of Huntly so I was very wrong.
zoom lens in use here.