25 year el-nino/la nina

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Manukau heads obs
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25 year el-nino/la nina

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i see an article where augie decribed this long ter trend of more el ninos for 25 years, then more la ninas for 25 years
1999 was the start of the more la ninas
interesting!
i know niwa identified 1977 as a turning point in nz weather ages ago, and that fits with this cycle!
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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Hope so we had our "best" summer in 1977-78 as far as my memory goes :)
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

If we had to choose from the 2
I hate La Nina weather patterns, give me more El nino's anyday


JohnGaul
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Could you write more clearly Brian as to what you are refering too!
What augie article? ... and don't you mean a longer period of La Nina's ?

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i read it in a farming magazine, of all places...
its a 25 year cycle, where you get more el ninos in one of the 25 year periods, and then more la ninas in the next 25 year period....(that side of the coin started in 1999)
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TonyT
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Unread post by TonyT »

However, if you run a trend line through the SOI data from begining to end (1870s to 2000s) it shows a slow increase in SOI values, ie more frequent and stronger ENs and weaker and less frequent LNs over the last 130 years.

Another point is that the 25 years is close to the 22 years of a sunspot cycle, and Alaric Tomlinson found evidence of 11 and 22 year cycles in NZ rainfall back in the early 1980s, so that idea has been around for a long time now but often seems to get forgotten.
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