BLEAK Week a coming!

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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BLEAK Week a coming!

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looks likes a BLEAK week coming up for Christchurch from Sunday onwards.
Lots of calm, dull, boring cold days as the Se dosen't get blustery in and over Christchurch because of BP.
Interesting to see what rainfalls we get from it.
Could be a great snowfall dump for the end of the ski-season tho'

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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

Be the same boring ho hum weather in Ak too with southwesterlies perhaps going NW for a day as the next low rolls around the globe towards us and with tons of rain :(
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Does look bleak for eastern regions. I think western areas including Auckland should get off lightly. I expect a fair amount of bright weather here in the coming week. Chance of thundery downpour early week with the low. But still a bit early in the spring for good land based convection.
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Unread post by tich »

Looks likes a BLEAK week coming up for Christchurch from Sunday onwards.
Lots of calm, dull, boring cold days as the Se dosen't get blustery in and over Christchurch because of BP.
Interesting to see what rainfalls we get from it.
At least we're getting an advance warning. I think if it's a southeasterly, Chch will feel some sheltering from Banks Peninsula, so not that much rain likely in the city. Anyway, ultra long-range (UNISYS) is going for a change to northerlies or northwesterlies for next weekend. Here's hoping.
Could be a great snowfall dump for the end of the ski-season tho'
Looks like there's some very cold air behind the front due to move onto the South Island on Monday. However, the models seem to predict it to shoot up into the central Tasman (528 thickness line reaching right up to about 38S), rather than onto NZ. Would be interesting if this very cold did move onto the country. Anyway, warm advection snowfall could still lower the snow levels in inland Canterbury if there's enough moisture in the airflow. I think we're far from the end of the ski season.
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Unread post by tich »

Southerly change here in Chch - still dry in the central city, but 9PM radar shows shower activity reaching about Ashburton, and the clouds here suggest rain might not be too far away.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Fine morning in Auckland but last nights upper air sounding suggests that won't last. Conditionaly unstable. Should see some good Tcu buildups today if we get some good surface heating. Showers look to be on the way with slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Currently 1/8 cu, Calm, 14C.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Looks like there might be a few cb's about near Auckland today from Satellite pic, below:

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d07093.jpg

Good luck Steven, perhaps a few photos later today to add to your awsome collection.

Cheers
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Unread post by NZstorm »

A few t/cu builups today glaciating to produce showers. But upper air has stabilised (got a bit warmer) during the day to prevent deeper convection.
Still, showers quite heavy where they have eventuated. ;)
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Unread post by Thunder »

I jumped the gun. When I see anything looking like a Cb I immediatly say "hey, there's one". Oh well, towering Cu, cool! ;)

Not all's lost though, with this new system coming on through Steven there still may be some thunderstorms yet there in Auckland sometime during this week.

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Michael
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Unread post by Michael »

It should rain all 30 days this month it looks the way its going as its rained all 8 days so far :(
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Unread post by Thunder »

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d08093.jpg

If they aern't Cb's I don't know what else is! Good unstable cloud out to the west of the North Island, still not near land yet but they look good don't they. Micheal, get your fan and set it on high, stick it out the window and blow some those Cb's down here if they get to you! hehe ;)

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Unread post by TonyT »

There's some interesting features in this satpic, look at the well organised lines of CBs advancing onto the SI east coast from Stewart Island to about Oamaru, and notice how that line disappears into a sort of hole in the low cloud east of Timaru. Look also at the very sharp boundary of cloud over the ocean from Timaru up to Banks Peninsula.

In the North Island you can see a similar, very well organised and narrow band of showers from Cook Strait to Hawkes Bay.

It will be interesting to look at the NOAA pix from this evening to see if these features are still identifiable and how they have changed/moved.
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Unread post by Michael »

The rain finally cleared up this morning and left us with a much awaited sunny day with light winds mostly SSW but it looks like the higher pressure thats got in a double low system so enjoyed it while it lasted-was good to see the disturbed westerly flow way to the north :)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Not a bad day today, sct t/cu but lots of sun.

A sizable cloud buildup though early evening over the city area and very heavy rain here at the moment.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Heavy rain has eased off here. Upper air must be getting more unstable now. I think the worst of the unstable weather in the Tasman Sea will be flicked over the top of the NI by the low and I will be left with the crumbs to observe tomorrow. But Wednesday could be more interesting as skies will have cleared significantly and the upper air still unstable. Surface heating could trigger some cb's. Still abit early in the year though but there seems to be some real heat in that sun now. So heres hoping. ;)

Re Tonys comments on the east South Island cb line. I agree a very strange looking cloud line. I am sceptical this is convective cloud though.
The environment down there is still on the stable side, thus I am thinking this is thick cirrus. I can imagine a cloud layer of that scale in the higher atmosphere but not near the surface.

Latest sat pic has the thundery front in the north moving onto the top of Northland. :)
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Unread post by tich »

Cloudy and cold all day in Christchurch and Banks Peninsula, but no precipitation (that I've noticed) so far. BTW Dunedin must've been freezing, with a maximum of only 5C. (as stated in TV1 Weather - I don't know where in Dunedin their readings come from)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Dunedin readings could be from out at the airport now.

Another bitterly cold day in store for most of the country. I don't expect temperatures much higher than 7C at Ch today. Auckland could make it to 14C if we get some sun. But its a chilly 7C here this morning with high cloud.
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Unread post by GraemeWi »

Quite a nice looking 'text book' multicell CB out to the south east on the drive into the CBD at 6.30 am this morning. What a shame I couldn't stop on the motorway and get a pic! Hopefully a sign of the day to come. Some quite lumpy growing cells off to the north-east as well.

G
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the forecast was off the mark
no rain in the auckland area this morning, it all rolled over the top of us
just as you said steven
they should take more notice of postings here!
temperatures climbing here due to sunny skies over the waikato, even though we have high cloud blocking the sun out
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Unread post by tich »

A cold, wet morning here in Chch, only about 5 or 6C. I'm surprised MetService hasn't issued a road snowfall warning for the Lindis and Porter's Passes - the cold precipitation should be reaching there in this southeasterly flow, and snow is forecast down to about 500-600 metres.
temperatures climbing here due to sunny skies over the waikato, even though we have high cloud blocking the sun out
You know what that could mean this afternoon.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup, there are few showers now around the hunua ranges and further SE of there
the tops are rather sheared off....from the SE
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes Brian, the Met service prediction of morning rain did'nt come off with the weather turning fine. But T/cu quickly started building with a scattering of heavy showers developing by early afternoon with hail and
isolated thunder. A few of the showers become very heavy and I photographed some nice thunderstorm structure over East Auckland where I was working today.

Image

Cumulonimbus arcus

more pics later
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Unread post by Michael »

We had some small hail this arvo about 430 pm from the cb that went from the SE towards the city ;) with some thunder
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Unread post by Dean. »

Rain slowly getting heavier,12mm so far today.
Temp 6.4 degrees.
Snowing in Tekapo this morning,and 25 cm so far on Mt Hutt,wouldnt suprise me if they get 1 metre by the end of this southeasterly storm.
Cheers.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

great photo!
we only got the edge of the showers here, as we had a southerly running up the coastline...

the area between the SI and the chatamns should be renamed the roaring easterlies there has been so many easterly winds there
the beaches on the east SI must be changing with all the easterly surf?
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