The El Nino is not the only contributor to this pattern. For the present, we are nowhere near an El Nino.nzmaninsydney wrote:Invercargill's rainfall totals for 1981/1982/1983/1984:-
December 1981 152.0 mm
December 1982 128.0 mm
December 1983 161.0 mm
December 1984 101.0mm
Jan 1982 215.0 mm
Jan 1983 213.0 mm
Jan 1984 278.0mm
Those periods are associated with a strong El Nino weather pattern which saw a huge frequency of South-Westerlies than normal.
Already for January 2006- Invercargill has so far recorded 215.0mm and there's 8 more days to go-this is due to the higher than normal frequency of South-Westerlies.
Can see that its a lovely day down there-25 degrees at the moment with sunshine.
Yes, about 13C there tomorrow, will become warmer in the WE. Forecast models are a bit lax at the moment.Flutterbye wrote:I don't mind a cooler day or two in between the warmer days - can't do the garden in the heat - whereas about 18 to 20 with a lot of cloud is just right for weeding.
Have a good evening all and I hope you North Islanders don't suffer too much damage from the storm.
RWood wrote:The El Nino is not the only contributor to this pattern. For the present, we are nowhere near an El Nino.nzmaninsydney wrote:Invercargill's rainfall totals for 1981/1982/1983/1984:-
December 1981 152.0 mm
December 1982 128.0 mm
December 1983 161.0 mm
December 1984 101.0mm
Jan 1982 215.0 mm
Jan 1983 213.0 mm
Jan 1984 278.0mm
Those periods are associated with a strong El Nino weather pattern which saw a huge frequency of South-Westerlies than normal.
Already for January 2006- Invercargill has so far recorded 215.0mm and there's 8 more days to go-this is due to the higher than normal frequency of South-Westerlies.
Can see that its a lovely day down there-25 degrees at the moment with sunshine.
I have rechecked the SOI index table for the summers 1981/82, 1982/83 and 1983/84. 1982/83 summner was in an El Nino - part of the biggest or near-biggest for the whole century. The other two seasons were NOT.
And by the way - the RH for Sydney Aero on Jan 1 (the 45.2 day) was only 45% at 9am and ONLY 13% at 3pm - both unusually low values, especially the latter!
Not humid at all.. just plain stinking hot! Or was everyone then un-educated?nzmaninsydney wrote: I was in Sydney that day and it was very humid-I dont care what the RH readings were that day-it was very humid and very oppressive/ uncomfortable-many people crowded into air-conditioned malls, shops and pubs, many of us were sweating excessively.
Inside my flat, me and 2 mates from Brisbane sweated non-stop and it got that bad, we had to go to a air-conditioned pub to cool down and stop the sweating. My mates from Brisbane commented to me that the humidity was even worse than Brisbane!
I suggets you go the Australian weather sites and look at the literature on SOI/ENSO. Current conditions are neutral. You are trying to simplify matters by attributing too many situations to a macro-situation that simply doesn't apply at present. I repeat - we are NOT in an El Nino at present, "Australian" not being a local qualifier that somehow you try to use to validate your statement.nzmaninsydney wrote:RWood wrote: The El Nino is not the only contributor to this pattern. For the present, we are nowhere near an El Nino.
I have rechecked the SOI index table for the summers 1981/82, 1982/83 and 1983/84. 1982/83 summner was in an El Nino - part of the biggest or near-biggest for the whole century. The other two seasons were NOT.
And by the way - the RH for Sydney Aero on Jan 1 (the 45.2 day) was only 45% at 9am and ONLY 13% at 3pm - both unusually low values, especially the latter!
I was in Sydney that day and it was very humid-I dont care what the RH readings were that day-it was very humid and very oppressive/ uncomfortable-many people crowded into air-conditioned malls, shops and pubs, many of us were sweating excessively.
Inside my flat, me and 2 mates from Brisbane sweated non-stop and it got that bad, we had to go to a air-conditioned pub to cool down and stop the sweating. My mates from Brisbane commented to me that the humidity was even worse than Brisbane!
We are having an strong El Nino weather pattern here in Oz, Many places in NSW, QLD and NT had very well-below average rainfalls for December 2005, as well as having one of our driest years on record. In Sydney all but Feb, Mar and Nov had well-below average rianfall-this is normally connected to a El Nino weather pattern. Also had one of our warmest Decembers on record, where as in Perth it was the coldest December on record-due to higher-than-normal south-westerly winds.
Were u in sydney that day?Foggy Hamilton wrote:Not humid at all.. just plain stinking hot! Or was everyone then un-educated?nzmaninsydney wrote: I was in Sydney that day and it was very humid-I dont care what the RH readings were that day-it was very humid and very oppressive/ uncomfortable-many people crowded into air-conditioned malls, shops and pubs, many of us were sweating excessively.
Inside my flat, me and 2 mates from Brisbane sweated non-stop and it got that bad, we had to go to a air-conditioned pub to cool down and stop the sweating. My mates from Brisbane commented to me that the humidity was even worse than Brisbane!
Sydney Airport is near the coast, thats true that NW winds can bring dry heat, NE winds usually cool the coastal areas down in the arvo but raises the humidity to high levels, whereas further inland, it can remain dry and hot, but on that 44.7oC day, it was very humid all day even thought there was no NE winds blowing. This was a rare feature and possibly the 1st time i had experienced that since moving to Sydney in 2001. Sydney usually gets it readings from Observatory Hill which is in the city.TonyT wrote:Is Sydney airport inland? Is it possible there was a NW breeze there (off the interior and therefore very dry) while it was NE (and perhaps a little more humid) in the city nearer the coast? Rather like what happens at Chch Airport vs Chch city from time to time (although obviously much hotter).
As for the ENSO correlations, yes its true that some parts of Australia show strong causal links between EN and drought, but that doesnt mean there is a causal link the other way around between drought and EN. Just because its dry and in a strong W phase doesnt mean it has to be EN. And clearly it isnt.
