Scorcher possible Wednesday 11th Jan

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 11/01/2006 22:29

Jason, radio stations are part of the media. As for their temperature readings, they all take them from sensors mounted on the roofs of the buildings they have their studios in, which are often 2-3 storeys high or more, hence why they are not very representative.

The rain has nothing to do with the moist coastal northeasterly winds, its from the ranges, and is usually tied up with a frontal passage. Its a spill over of the rain falling on the main divide. Its method of formation is completely different to that of the Auckland convergence.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 11/01/2006 22:52

In this context it might be interesting to remember a huge (in diameter) low that formed in Nov 1994 over the eastern Tasman. I can remember reading that the W/NW flow round this delivered significant showers to Christchurch (perhaps a comment by Trevor McGavin in the MetSoc newsletter?).

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 11/01/2006 23:41

topped 30 today no seabrezze to cool things off i hope there is a seabreeze 2morow

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 12/01/2006 00:21

Thanks Tony I had no idea about that its good to understand these things better I guess everyday we are still learning about the weather.

NW getting abit strong and gusty now around 50kmh and warm still too 19C currently expected to drop to 15C over night.
The coming rain for tomorrow will certainly be very welcome tomorrow or should i say today Must go to bed.
Cheers
Jason.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 12/01/2006 09:18

Its a spill over of the rain falling on the main divide.

...and a sign that it must've been raining very heavily about (and west of) the main divide for solid rain (ie more than just spits) to reach the east coast.

Now raining steadily in Chch this morning, and alot cooler (only 11C) than yesterday. Timaru must've had even heavier rain, with over 5mm in the hour prior to 7am. Main Canterbury rivers should be well up as a result of yesterday's falls about the divide, and continuing rain about the high country up to this morning.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Thu 12/01/2006 11:44

I think we were meant to get to 28C yesterday, got to 24C. Good rain though starting by evening and finally stopped here with a total on 34mm falling. Only 8C overnight

that's just silly

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 12/01/2006 11:52

Moderate to almost heavy rain here at times this morning although is easing up somewhat now and much better relief in sight for those tinder dry areas Natives soaking up this rain with pleasure

.
Cheers
Jason.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 12/01/2006 12:17

A welcome 10mm here over night

Partly cloudy now temp 16 degrees

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 12/01/2006 14:00

Moderate to almost heavy rain here at times this morning although is easing up somewhat now and much better relief in sight for those tinder dry areas Natives soaking up this rain with pleasure .

Good rain in Chch and Kaiapoi, so presumably good rain in Bottle Lake Forest - hopefully the fire there will be put out.

Rain now ceased in Chch, but still cloudy and cool. Fresh southerly wind has eased.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 12/01/2006 15:20

Stuck in the fine weather here

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 12/01/2006 16:07

fine here with a max of 28 then the seabreeze kicked in

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 12/01/2006 16:17

After 15mm of rain this morning still cloudy but coolish on 17C winds turned more NE now very light though.
Could get to 30C tomorrow here before the SW change and showers late afternoon/evening then it's fine Saturday 24C and Sunday possible evening showers maybe a Thunderstorm although I wont be here I will be in Nelson so a good Thunderstorm off the Richmond Ranges would be nice

.
Cheers
Jason.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 12/01/2006 23:06

Light showers this evening but has cleared now. Looks suprisingly 'heavy' in a small passage between here and Auckland.

January is certainly shaping up to be quite dry in the North atleast, with predominating westerly quarter winds from weak ridges of high pressure. (Boring)

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 13/01/2006 08:01

January is certainly shaping up to be quite dry in the North atleast, with predominating westerly quarter winds from weak ridges of high pressure. (Boring)

We were told to expect normal to above normal rainfall in the NE for January while the SW of NZ would have normal to below normal rainfall, has been very wet in Fiorldland and Westland so far.Not quite half way through the month but long range charts suggest this pattern will continue.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 13/01/2006 10:57

fine fine fine up here though expected to have a few showers in the nxt few days could do with some of those

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 13/01/2006 12:06

spwill wrote:
January is certainly shaping up to be quite dry in the North atleast, with predominating westerly quarter winds from weak ridges of high pressure. (Boring)
We were told to expect normal to above normal rainfall in the NE for January while the SW of NZ would have normal to below normal rainfall, has been very wet in Fiorldland and Westland so far.Not quite half way through the month but long range charts suggest this pattern will continue.

Remember that those outlooks are for 3-month periods - there's still time for patterns to change.

(Sorry, posted this in error to the 2005 Summary thread)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 13/01/2006 17:44

Another warm day in Canterbury paradise

Iam getting used to these days nicly good tan too

.
28C currently was 29.2C before but sun is behind thin layer of high cloud now and blustery N winds up to 35kmh.
Southerly change later this evening with a few showers with this narrow change.
Cheers
Jason.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 13/01/2006 17:47

yep hot here too Jase.

31.5 max currently 29.6

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Fri 13/01/2006 18:14

Evening

I recorded 26.4 today before the SW slammed in late this afternoon. There were some huge gusts as the front hit - recycle bins flying everywhere

Cheers
Lyn

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 13/01/2006 20:00

Remember that those outlooks are for 3-month periods - there's still time for patterns to change.

Signs of change later next week

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 13/01/2006 20:45

The southerly change may not be not much for us here in ChCh tonight.
The forecast is for more NW tomorrow, but I can't understand why the max is only 20C.
Who makes these maximums?
Is it a computer?

JohnGaul
NZTS

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 13/01/2006 21:10

The forecast is for more NW tomorrow, but I can't understand why the max is only 20C.

NE20knotsalongtheCanterburyCoastintheafternoon.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Fri 13/01/2006 21:15

Evening,

The SW change that came through here late this afternoon didn't have much rain with it, (I recorded 2ml), and I see the rain has passed through Dunedin now.

I see that they are forecasting - fine, morning cloud and northeasterlies -for ChCh tomorrow so maybe that has something to do with the max 20. I honestly think it's hit and miss with the temps at times.

Cheers
Lyn

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 13/01/2006 21:58

Yes well southerly not quite here yet still relativly warm on 22C at almost 10pm which reminds the other night on the 11th it was 23C at midnight with that strong NW'er.
Well iam off to Nelson tomorrow looks like it will be fine there tomorrow but showers possible sunday night. Then fine Monday,Tuesday and then Wednesday cloud increases with rain easing to showers on thursday then fine again friday. Thats as farr as i know and the weather is changing all the time and there's nothing like the sound of rain on your tent

just make sure your tent isnt leaking

.
Well i took this lovly pic of the sunset red sky with the full moon out lovly pic indeed.

I will be back with lots of pics from Nelson next weekend.
Cheers
Jason.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 13/01/2006 22:10

The forecast is for more NW tomorrow, but I can't understand why the max is only 20C.
Who makes these maximums?

Likely to be a NE over CH tending NW late in the day.

The forecast temps are generated by a computer. I am guessing they are calculated from the forecast 850mb temp but Tony would know more about that.