Scorcher possible Wednesday 11th Jan

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TonyT
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Unread post by TonyT »

I think you're right Steven, but all ours are 'hand made' as it were. I do expect NE for Chch all day tomorrow, NW developing evening or at night. I went for 21 for Chch, 23 for Timaru, and 27 for Oamaru where the NW should break through during the afternoon. No computers in that lot, just guess work. :lol:
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Unread post by Willoughby »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:The southerly change may not be not much for us here in ChCh tonight.
The forecast is for more NW tomorrow, but I can't understand why the max is only 20C.
Who makes these maximums?
Is it a computer?

JohnGaul
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20c looks like an accurate forecast for Chch tomorrow with fresh gusty easterlies predominating throughout, tending NE later

It's gonna be a while until we break these constant westerlies.. getting very bored with these afternoon cloud buildups with calm winds until the W kicks in clearing everything.

As spwill there's a change coming with it looking very interesting indeed :)

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Foggy Hamilton wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:The southerly change may not be not much for us here in ChCh tonight.
The forecast is for more NW tomorrow, but I can't understand why the max is only 20C.
Who makes these maximums?
Is it a computer?

JohnGaul
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20c looks like an accurate forecast for Chch tomorrow with fresh gusty easterlies predominating throughout, tending NE later

It's gonna be a while until we break these constant westerlies.. getting very bored with these afternoon cloud buildups with calm winds until the W kicks in clearing everything.

As spwill there's a change coming with it looking very interesting indeed :)

Cheers
Thunderstorm possibilities look good for Sunday and Wednesday here, I've given 3 for both of those days :)
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Gale SW winds here throwing our plastic chairs around like toys.
Fire siren gone off too not sure whats happend there I was reading gusts to 65kmh before still some beauts comig through.
Thats me for now be bak wif some pics from Nelson in a weeks time.
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Jason.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

A heavy shower here in central AK (not forecast by Met Service).
A weak front has brought in low level instability, sea breeze convergence is the trigger.
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Unread post by Willoughby »

NZstorm wrote:A heavy shower here in central AK (not forecast by Met Service).
A weak front has brought in low level instability, sea breeze convergence is the trigger.
Mostly fine and warm today in the great basin.. 26c/dewpoint 20c with a gentle W.

Some T/Cu were about trying to develop
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Unread post by RWood »

Lovely clear day with little wind and mild temps. after less than 1mm rain in previous 24 hrs. Going to Marl. Sounds and Nelson till 25th - don't want the weather to be too exciting - should be OK.
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Unread post by Flutterbye »

Hi

Nice day in the deep south - my reading 23.4 with a 12km NNE wind. Not looking good for the next couple of days though - thunderstorms and hail????? :?


Have a nice day

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Lyn
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Foggy Hamilton wrote:
20c looks like an accurate forecast for Chch tomorrow with fresh gusty easterlies predominating throughout, tending NE later
You are right there Fog, with a gusty ENE blowing all day.
Shame not blowing up against a cold front that is due to pass over ChCh sometime tonight instead of tomorrow, or the active one on Wednesday? :)
Only got up to 18.6C so far :D

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Flutterbye wrote:Hi

Not looking good for the next couple of days though - thunderstorms and hail????? :?

What do you mean not looking good????????
That sounds fantastic \:D/

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Unread post by Flutterbye »

But it supposed to be rather cool with thunderstorms not really warm like the ones we had in December. Then again they dropped our expected high today and it turned out niceer than they predicted and warmer.

Looking to the west it looks like something is brewing though the rain radar up to 5.15 doesn't look too threatning yet.

I will try to send some storms your way!!!! :lol: :lol:

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Lyn
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Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Currently quite dark out there, saw lots of developing Cu earlier. Hit 31.4°C here earlier today, it's been a very hot sticky day. Will's weather station recorded 30.7°C at 15:46. I see TV reported only 28°C.

I'm hoping for some activity tonight, it has that feel about it. I don't know about the science of it all though.

After a week of hot evenings I'm also looking forward to a cooler change.
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Unread post by Flutterbye »

Hi,

Yes, the TV temps don't really do justice to some places. Is Tauranga's temp taken somewhere near the coast?

I know down here that you can add at least 4 degrees to the airport temp in summer and about 2 degrees in winter to get the true temp for the city.

Maybe we need to move our readings well inland like a lot of other places seem to have done - but I suppose it would come down to 'who would pay'.

I hope you get a cooler change soon cause it' is so much easier to sleep now that we've been a tad cooler down here lately. 8)

Cheers
Lyn
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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

Flutterbye wrote:Hi,

Yes, the TV temps don't really do justice to some places. Is Tauranga's temp taken somewhere near the coast?

I know down here that you can add at least 4 degrees to the airport temp in summer and about 2 degrees in winter to get the true temp for the city.

Maybe we need to move our readings well inland like a lot of other places seem to have done - but I suppose it would come down to 'who would pay'.

I hope you get a cooler change soon cause it' is so much easier to sleep now that we've been a tad cooler down here lately. 8)

Cheers
Lyn
It's apples for apples: most "legit" readings are made at-or-near airports, or averaged over several standards compliant sites.

A guy at work berated me a few days ago, claiming - and I quote - that I'd "done the town a great disservice by moving the weather station to the Omarama airport". He told me how he can't boast about Omarama's high temperatures to his mates in other towns now, because Omarama airport is "A cold windy hole."

This all surprised me since I thought the function of a weather station was to report the conditions at a theoretically ideal location. The station wasn't ideally sited in my backyard (too sheltered), but of course everybody wants to see those hot hot hot! temperatures!

Man it bugs me the way "the weather" is made competitive by people, especially those who see themselves as having a vested financial interest in exaggerated "nice weather" data (such as town mayors, etc).

And most, if not all, people are incapable of accurately interpreting conditions without the use of properly calibrated instruments, and even then they're willing to "correct" that data: 5mm of rain is always 50mm; 30° C is always 40° C; 20 Knots is always 50 Knots. So when they tell me my station (or some other) is inaccurate, I say "Thanks for your input", and ignore them, because they are always wrong.

RWood and I often disagree on many things, but I thing we see eye-to-eye on those issue. :D ;)
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Unread post by Flutterbye »

There is no way that Omarama Airport is a "cold hole' - that title belongs to Invercargill Airport :lol: I've spent a couple of days in Omarama and it was soooo hot - probably the hottest I've been apart from a 41 degree day in Melbourne once.

I don't think they are all taken at airports - Isn't Wellington's is now taken inland away from the coast and I'm sure Oamaru are getting a new weather station further inland from the town.

All I can say is that going buy the temps I get on my station, ( in a pretty open back yard), it is indicative of the day we are getting (so I don't take any notice of the In,gill airport temp) and the rain reading is on a par with the official recordings. Though probably too much over the last 10 days or so. :roll:

Have a nice evening

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Lyn
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Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Tauranga weather is recorded at two stations to the best of my knowledge. Tauranga airport (actually located at Mount Maunganui) and the Wastewater treatment plant. Both spots are quite open and Gary Roberts would be quite happy with them.

My readings are applicable to me, but I live in a dip, very sheltered from all directions except the North East, they don't compare to exposed locations at all. Wills weather station (Which I expect he will have calibrated accurately) is located at the Coastguard headquarters, not far from the wastewater treatment station. I expect Gary would be happy with that location too, both have similar amounts of harbour similar distances away.

I just find it frustrating when everyone is sweltering commenting on how hot it is, we all observe low 30's in the afternoon and as usual we only get high 20's recognition.

Either way it was darn hot (still low 20's outside) with the humidity in the mid 70's. I know it was hot cause I had the car air conditioning set to 26°C and it was still nice and cool compared to outside.

Still, it could be worse, I could live in Brisbane or Cairns ;)
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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

Flutterbye wrote:There is no way that Omarama Airport is a "cold hole' - that title belongs to Invercargill Airport :lol: I've spent a couple of days in Omarama and it was soooo hot - probably the hottest I've been apart from a 41 degree day in Melbourne once.

I don't think they are all taken at airports - Isn't Wellington's is now taken inland away from the coast and I'm sure Oamaru are getting a new weather station further inland from the town.

All I can say is that going buy the temps I get on my station, ( in a pretty open back yard), it is indicative of the day we are getting (so I don't take any notice of the In,gill airport temp) and the rain reading is on a par with the official recordings. Though probably too much over the last 10 days or so. :roll:

Have a nice evening

Cheers
Lyn
Oamaru is a classic example in that the mayor and other business people are hoping to convince the world that Oamaru has a much better climate than the Met service usually reports. So they coughed up $15,000 for a new weather station which I've been told has a lovely sheltered spot inland.

I don't know who will be collecting the readings and data, but I'm sure the town shall reap a veritable tourism bonanza as a result of Oamaru's new-found status as a tropical paradise...well after going to all the effort and cost to "prove" it, there's no way that station will be allowed to report the same results as the old Met stations, right? :roll: .

Of course, having spent a lot of time in Oamaru, it'd be something of a miracle (or something...), since almost everytime I've been there the weather has been downright dismal at best. :P :D
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Unread post by RWood »

I second Gary's comments. Perhaps also one of the most important thing for any site is its consistency over time, so time-trends if any, can be assesssed properly. I have seen tables of mean daily max. and min. temps for about 150 NZ NIWA-recognised places, for various 30-year periods. They pass one very simple and important test, in my opinion: The variations with latitude and altitude make sense, and when you compare some windy coastal locations with more sheltered ones, it's quite interesting. For example, a lighthouse location in Eastland is 2-3 degs lower by day than a Gisborne location away fron the sea, and 3-4 degs warmer at night (both those numbers may be a bit less but the overall difference is the same). But of course windchill would negate the slightly higher daily mean at the coastal place, and even perhaps make that site effectively the cooler of the two - but not by a large margin. I think most people exaggerate perceived differences between places because they overrate the effect of direct sunlight on the skin.

In conclusion, I think the temperature competition is a nonsense anyway - and there are other features that determine whether a person finds a place's climate "desirable". Personally I rate sunshine and rainfall as more important factors, but there is no objective way to agree on what constitutes a good climate anyway - just as well!
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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

tgsnoopy wrote:Tauranga weather is recorded at two stations to the best of my knowledge. Tauranga airport (actually located at Mount Maunganui) and the Wastewater treatment plant. Both spots are quite open and Gary Roberts would be quite happy with them.

My readings are applicable to me, but I live in a dip, very sheltered from all directions except the North East, they don't compare to exposed locations at all. Wills weather station (Which I expect he will have calibrated accurately) is located at the Coastguard headquarters, not far from the wastewater treatment station. I expect Gary would be happy with that location too, both have similar amounts of harbour similar distances away.

I just find it frustrating when everyone is sweltering commenting on how hot it is, we all observe low 30's in the afternoon and as usual we only get high 20's recognition.

Either way it was darn hot (still low 20's outside) with the humidity in the mid 70's. I know it was hot cause I had the car air conditioning set to 26°C and it was still nice and cool compared to outside.

Still, it could be worse, I could live in Brisbane or Cairns ;)
Where do you draw the line though tgsnoopy? Do we place a station in every yard and average them? When I was in Auckland the TV weather people often reported mid-20s on sweltering days, and we'd bitch because the station at the airport was dragging the average down, but they'd often acknowledge that, say, Henderson got to 31 or something. I get cranky when they misreport conditions down here, but that's a TVNZ failing usually, rather than the Met Service.

When I'm on Benmore Peak at 6,000'+ it's usually around 10° C or so cooler than down in Omarama (and sometimes much windier too! ;) ). In the riverbeds it's often 5° hotter than at another location in town. I guess it comes down to local conditions and terrain. On a hot sunny day It'll probably way the hell hotter amongst warehouses and factory buildings than in an open field.

If all the weather station are located in similar sites then at least, as I said before, comparing apples with apples, rather than the hottest, sunniest places business interests can find.
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Unread post by Flutterbye »

It's a nice town but I have to admit to finding the breeze off the sea rather cold even on a nice day and when it's wet it that breeze seems to make it feel really cold.

You are right about the postition of the new weather station - it's south of the town in a paddock that appears to be in a gully - looked sheltered but I only had a quick glimpse.

Gusting northerly is dying out now so I would imagine the change down here isn't far away.

Cheers
Lyn
:)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Thank the heavens for WMO standards!!!

Taking measurements at airports is the suited way and taking temperatures from within the urban limits aren't really comparable or verifiable.. especially coming from amatures with weather stations, like myself! ;)

I got to 28.4c, but the airport got to 26c

Tgsnoopy, it was quite humid today (20c DP here and 18c in Tauranga) so that's why it felt so much hotter :)

The TV temps do do justice, there's nothing ever wrong with the readings from the MetService.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Flutterbye wrote:It's a nice town but I have to admit to finding the breeze off the sea rather cold even on a nice day and when it's wet it that breeze seems to make it feel really cold.
Cheers
Lyn
:)
I agree, Oamaru is a bit like that...but I love the buildings, the old part of Oamaru. The cold wind adds feature to the town.

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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Flutterbye wrote:It's a nice town but I have to admit to finding the breeze off the sea rather cold even on a nice day and when it's wet it that breeze seems to make it feel really cold.
Cheers
Lyn
:)
I agree, Oamaru is a bit like that...but I love the buildings, the old part of Oamaru. The cold wind adds feature to the town.

JohnGaul
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I reckon it would actually detract from the town's character to portray it as always hot and sunny. It's a grand old gritty worker's town in my view. But I guess the Business Associations believe the money's in sunshine...
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Gary Roberts wrote:
I reckon it would actually detract from the town's character to portray it as always hot and sunny. It's a grand old gritty worker's town in my view. But I guess the Business Associations believe the money's in sunshine...
...more going for it than Timaru. Oamaru has character, excellent growing area,new pototoes ..yum. Fantastic limestone for buildings and also it was the home to Lane's Emulsion! :D ...Janet Frame, Campbell Sausages, the Waitaki Militia, the Wizard lives there now....the list goes on :)

JohnGaul
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Unread post by RWood »

Thta was a reply to Gary's earlier note. Re Oamaru: I would think that all of those east coast locations from North Canterbury south tend to share the same attribute: a coldish bite to easterly quarter winds, and often plenty of cloudiness with it. In the latter respect Oamaru (when they kept records) was not quite as cloudy as Waimate, which in the past set some particularly low records for a relatively dry climate.
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