Big Easterly Low: 24th-28th

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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

As a side note.. there WONT be any thunderstorms here today
Some low level instability there today which could result a few late day showers, but I agree, upper air too warm for thunder given likely temperature/dewpoints today.


Looking better than ever!
Good potential for unstable conditions over the north from about Tuesday. :)
Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looking good!
farmers will be happy if we get the rain!
(and it doesnt split with rain to the east and rain to the west )
this Kaitaia station will be the first one to get the effects
http://www.waitapuestate.co.nz/myweather/myweather.htm
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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Should be a good warm front with this system given that dewpoints will jump from current 13C to around 20C by Tuesday.
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Willoughby
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Unread post by Willoughby »

A random wind change from E to SW at 6.30 brought the temp up to 26c by 7pm from 24c .. kinda cool I guess. The convergant Cu are petering out now.. so no evening showers
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... tpfile.gif
shows a strong CB near new caledonia with lightning activity in it :)


clouds gathering nicely as the easterly trough starts to bend :)
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Unread post by squid »

fiji metservice has the depression at 1000 already the models depen it from anything between 998 and 988 by the time it gets to NZ should be at least a good rain even man we need it bring on the rain
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

can now see rotation happening east of Norfolk island on the jetstream
that is where the main low is going to form
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Willoughby
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Looks like the most of the heavy rain will fall tomorrow throughout the North Island. Waikato/W BoP/Central Plateau/Bay of Islands should see the most out of the system now and northern Coromandel. Can't see any thunder tomorrow.. should see that later in the week for sure. Big easterly/NE winds tomorrow which will be interesting.
850mb temps rising to 18c by tues night..
Looks good on here: http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

Cheers
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i might have to brace my new 10m anenometer pole a bit more, 50 knot NE winds likely here (very exposed to the NE here (300 feet up above the manuakua harbour) 8)
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

met servide now issued a heavy rain event for this low
SWW Event 2006/4.1}
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN:
NLD, ALD, COROMANDEL_PENINSULA BOP, GISBORNE

NOT TO BE BROADCAST AFTER 9:00pm Monday 23-Jan-2006





SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 11:11 am 23-Jan-2006

DEEPENING LOW EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GALES TO THE NORTH
ISLAND FROM NORTHLAND TO GISBORNE ON TUESDAY
A deepening low is approaching New Zealand from the tropics and
should reach the top of the North Island tomorrow afternoon. A strong
or gale northeast airstream ahead of the low is expected to bring a
burst of very heavy rain to northern and eastern areas from Northland
to Gisborne with over 100mm possible in a 12 hour period in many
areas and as much as 160mm possible in parts of Bay of Plenty.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest
forecasts.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND FORECAST CHARTS PLEASE GO TO
http://www.metservice.co.nz/maps/index.asp

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS
FOLLOWS:



====================
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
====================

AREA/S AFFECTED: NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF
PLENTY AND GISBORNE RANGES NORTH OF TOLAGA BAY
FORECAST:

NORTHLAND
Rain is expected to start tonight and become heavy tomorrow morning.
In a 12 hour period from about 3am to 3pm Tuesday, 80 to 100mm is
possible, especially in eastern areas.

AUCKLAND
Rain is expected to start overnight and become heavy in the morning.
In a 12 hour period from about 6am to 6pm Tuesday, 60 to 80mm is
possible, especially about the hills north of the harbour bridge.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA
Rain is expected to develop overnight and become heavy in the morning.
In a 12 hour period from about 7am to 7pm Tuesday, 100 to 130mm is
likely with peak falls of 30mm an hour possible.

BAY OF PLENTY
Rain is expected to develop overnight and become heavy in the morning.
In a 12 hour period from about 9am to 9pm Tuesday, 120 to 160mm is
likely, especially about the Kaimai Ranges, with peak falls of 30mm
an hour possible.

RANGES OF GISBORNE NORTH OF TOLAGA BAY
Rain is expected to develop tomorrow morning and become heavy about
midday. In a 15 hour period from about midday Tuesday to 3am
Wednesday, 100 to 140mm is likely with peak falls of 30mm an hour
possible.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE
9:00pm Monday 23-Jan-2006

Forecast prepared by: Erick Brenstrum

A service provided through a contract with the Crown
(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2006

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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Wednesday and Thursday should be interesting with afternoon heat thunderstorms on the cards.
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Unread post by squid »

u bet me to it in posting the heavy rain warning lol i hope it comes to pass we so could do with 100mm up here
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Yup... Just got that warning here... Send some rain here for us though as well huh... Dry as the Sahara here... 8)
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Unread post by squid »

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NLD, ALD, COP, BOP, WKO, GISBORNE
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1128hrs 23-Jan-2006

SEVERE EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTH OF
NORTH ISLAND

A deepening low is approaching New Zealand from the north. A strong
northeast airstream ahead of the low may bring severe east to
northeast gales during Tuesday to exposed areas from Northland to
Gisborne including the Waikato.

People in these areas should keep up to date with the latest
forecasts in case this watch needs to be upgraded to a warning.
squid
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Unread post by squid »

Low 996hPa 25S 169E, moving southeast 20kt.

Low down to 996 now getting gusty here had gusts to 55kph fomr the east overcast with showers starting to develop
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Quickly became overcast here.. wind is NW 95 knots in the jet atm.. tending, slowing N 70 knots tomorrow midday.

The Bay of Plenty are right in the firing line tomorrow around midday. Then again at around middnight with the heaviest of rain. It doesn't look at all good there. Whakatane to Gisborne northwards will be next early Wednesday morning to feel the grunt of this system

Will eagerly await your reports tgsnoopy ;)
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tgsnoopy
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Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Well, I'm about as prepared as is practical without going overboard.

Since our last flooding we have a "flood channel" between both sides of the section.

I also just dug (sorry back) the sediment out of the bottom of the drain (which can't cope, but it was getting close to the pipe and needed doing).

The upstream side is completely closed off using silicon rubber & aluminium plate over the doorway where most of it got in. Other smaller leaks on that side have also been sealed.

I've just fitted a Tarp over the entire doorway on that side as extra protection.

On the downstream side the neighbours retaining wall came up above our ground level which used to pool the water and allow it to come in that side. I've cut it off at ground level for about 5m in it's lower area so that hopefully will have stopped a repeat of that.

Inside, the important/valuable stuff has been lifted off the ground.

Now it's wait and see.

It's about time a few of you guru's filled me in on how this is developing?

My hopes... It moves to the East and misses us... Then we gets lots of good Electrical storms on Wednesday & Thursday Afternoon/Evening.
Last edited by tgsnoopy on Mon 23/01/2006 21:01, edited 1 time in total.
squid
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Unread post by squid »

strong wind warning for auckland now

STRONG WIND WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED: AUCKLAND
FORECAST:

Northeast winds are expected to rise to gale during Tuesday morning,with
possible severe gale gusts of 120 km/h in exposed places between 10am and 8pm
Tuesday. Winds then abating after dark
Manukau heads obs
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

there was an amazing sunset 2 nite

sure looks very bad for tomorrow
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Foggy are you weatherman2 on TM?

I used to put the warnings on there 3 - 4 years ago... 8)
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Willoughby
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Manukau heads observer wrote:there was an amazing sunset 2 nite

sure looks very bad for tomorrow
Saw that too.. very spectacular :)
Foggy are you weatherman2 on TM?
Yes ;)
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Unread post by temp_grl »

I too saw the sunset - was the most beautiful I have seen in ages! Don't have a weather station (wish i did!) but wind gusts are getting strong here in the Herne Bay area, Auckland.
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Unread post by GraemeWi »

Awesome sunset tonight
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Unread post by spike_01 »

Thought so foggy... See my name in the thread ya have going over there... ;)
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Wow nice pics there Gramae :D I like a good sunset.
This Low system is one to watch indeed and one BOP farmers will be keeping an eye on after the most previous floods.
Auckland 10pm Rain radar starting to show the heavy rain moving in just off Northland.
Cheers
Jason.
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