Big Easterly Low: 24th-28th

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 18/01/2006 13:21

Monsoonal rains settling down now to start drenching New Caledonia from Thursday night ---> Sunday morning bringing up to around 650mm in the north/east of the island..

The ECMWF model strongly hinting that this weakening tropical system will bear down onto or around eastern Northland by Wednesday morning. NGP shows similar but disbands the heaviest rain and sends it far southeast past NZ. JMA and MM5 models shows little, if any development of this event. But the next few ECMWF model runs will be very interesting as the last few were pointing to this taking place. GFS has pulled out within the last 6 hours, so it may be back in.. as this is so often the case.

It will be certainly something to be worth watching as this could be the first major low for the North Island for '06.

Risks are minimal that it will turn into a cyclone

Cheers

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 18/01/2006 15:26

Yes it's looking like a Low could move down from the North Next week.
Models seem to struggle with Low development to our North at this time of the year so long range charts become very unreliable.

Likely to be some afternoon convective showers around from Friday, will be mostly over high ground and inland.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 18/01/2006 18:06

yes please!
getting dry again around here!!!

queensland should get rain too i would think as the moonsonal type low is drifting towards them....

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 18/01/2006 18:35

yes watch that space in a coral sea over the nxt week we should c some good easterly rain early nxt week

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 18/01/2006 19:12

....means boring weather down here

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 19/01/2006 12:01

Anything would be a change from the almost constant SW

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 19/01/2006 22:15

check out the Gfs model on weatherzone fomr 120hrs onwards for us if it is right boy r we in for a storm

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 19/01/2006 22:19

squid wrote:check out the Gfs model on weatherzone fomr 120hrs onwards for us if it is right boy r we in for a storm

...I doubt it?
It's 2006, you don't get storms these days, just pathetic weather

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 20/01/2006 01:07

Yes!

Starting to brew up nicely around New Caledonia/Vanuatu now with some very decent divergance developing in the higher atmosphere up there. Weak jetstream sprawning above desert QLD too in the next few coming days! $\:D/$

NGP still going for the same as what I said before (disbanding).. GFS hinting at a strengthening humid NE flow over the NI by Wednesday with heavy rain making Northland landfall by Tuesday evening. hmmmmmm.. Then widespread heavy rain for the North Island.. however severe flood watch may be called in for BoP.. and Nelson by Thursday

Confidence levels are rising considerably going by the last 4 ECMWF model runs.. MetService have just recognised it and they seem quite conservative on the event..

Let's see!

Cheers

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 20/01/2006 11:22

gfs on weatherzone still going for one hell of a storm for the NI from 96 hrs onwards check it out for yourselves man we r in for it if this model is right how reliable is this one??

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Fri 20/01/2006 11:32

Models appear to be coming together on this one, wait and see.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 20/01/2006 12:25

squid wrote:gfs on weatherzone still going for one hell of a storm for the NI from 96 hrs onwards check it out for yourselves man we r in for it if this model is right how reliable is this one??

Remember those charts are resoluted at 2mb isopleths instead of the standard 4.. so they always look more severe!

ECMWF drifting it east slightly.. but has another deepening low develop around Rockhampton

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 20/01/2006 13:17

ahh yep metservice has picked it up to saying gales in exposed places on wednesday still gonna be a good storm watch this space i reckon

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 20/01/2006 14:28

Valid: Sun 22 Jan to Wed 25 Jan
Issued: Fri 20 January 2006 at 01:56 pm

A front should cross Fiordland overnight Saturday to Sunday, bringing a brief period of heavy rain. There is low confidence that rainfall will accumulate to warning levels.
On Tuesday, a deep low may develop to the north of the country then move southeast over Northland and Auckland on Wednesday. Details of the position and movement of this low are uncertain at the moment but there is a low chance that it may bring a period of severe gales to many parts of the North Island and Marlborough on Tuesday or Wednesday with rainfall reaching warning levels over Northland and Auckland as well as eastern areas from Coromandel Peninsula down to the Kaikoura Coast.

This low has the potential to develop into a major storm and people are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

There you go could be a big one

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 20/01/2006 15:09

Can see a lot of rain for the NE of NZ in those charts.

temp_grl · Unread post by **temp_grl** » Fri 20/01/2006 21:18

Exciting

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 21/01/2006 08:54

Should starting turning humid in the north from Monday.
The high dewpoint air is likely to produce unstable conditions over the upper NI from about tuesday.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 21/01/2006 11:57

Looks like it might drift past the top of the North Is into no mans land.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 21/01/2006 12:04

expecting more or less a direct hit from this system

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 21/01/2006 12:42

At this stage it looks like the Low will pass just east of the NorthIsland with heavy rain and strong winds to exposed Eastern area's but the charts are very unreliable .

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 21/01/2006 13:21

If the ECMWF proves right.. then we should take a direct hit.. with the SLP in Northland dropping to aound 985mb by Wednesday. It even has the depression drifing back northwards by Friday!?

But I can't see that happening.. but that would certainly support the risks of convective afternoon thunderstorms later

.

I'm going with GFS on this one.. which will give very heavy rain for Coromandel/Eastland/Hawke's Bay and southwesterly gales for Auckland northwards and clearing rain. Then it may get quite cold with a cold SSW flow embracing NZ

Cheers

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 21/01/2006 13:32

Looking at 80mm+ for Hawkes Bay, for the period Wednesday night thru Thursday.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 21/01/2006 15:09

You guys get all the luck,here I am sweating it out in the tropics under clear skies and scorching temperatures in what is supposed to be the wet season.Ahh well......enjoy.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 21/01/2006 23:10

Looks like this system will not be as severe as earlier predicted (that's global warming for yer???

)
No matter what, it'll still be boring down here.
Here's to the drizzle? if any ...whatever ...I dunno

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 22/01/2006 09:48

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks like this system will not be as severe as earlier predicted (that's global warming for yer??? )
JohnGaul
NZTS

Looking better than ever!

Looking at 110mm+ now for the Waikato/Auckland regions now, excluding Coromandel..

they can expect flooding in some areas, as can Auckland from Thursday. GFS has let the Hawke's/Eastland bays regions off a wee bit. Not looking good at all for the BoP.. more severe flooding im thinking.. up to 200mm there.

Becoming very sticky for AK.. looking at lows of 21-22c during the night from Wednesday.. and temps creeping to 28c with dewpoints of around 21c

Thunderstorms about for sure

As a side note.. there WONT be any thunderstorms here today