Coral Sea Cyclone Jim

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 27/01/2006 08:11

Something to to keep an eye on who knows we may get the leftovers next week

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1827 UTC 26 January 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals centred at
261800 UTC near 17.5 south 147.5 east moving east at 3 knots. Position Fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots over the next
12 to 24 hours.

Clockwise winds at 20 to 30 knots increasing to 30 to 40 knots over the next 12
to 24 hours.

Rough seas becoming very rough with increasing easterly and northwesterly swells

Forecast position at 270600UTC 17.8 degrees south and 148.8 degrees east with
central pressure 997 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.

Forecast position at 271800UTC 18.0 degrees south and 149.6 degrees east with
central pressure 994 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 27/01/2006 11:17

Will be something to watch.. UKMO has it petering out by Feburary but the EC has it developing further.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 27/01/2006 13:03

Yes one to watch indeed.
There is a Tropical Storm Boloetse in the southern Indian ocean.
It is off Antananarivo which is an island off South Africa.
The Tropical storm will remain at 35kts in the next 24-28hrs.
I didn't think that area got Tropical storms or am i wrong

.
Cheers
Jason.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 27/01/2006 16:08

there is also a broad area of circulation north of the NI...

yes, this looks to be forming nicely....in the coral sea...

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 27/01/2006 16:34

It is off Antananarivo which is an island off South Africa.

Island is Madagascar (Antananarivo is the capital I think), and is to the east of southern Africa. I believe it helps shield the southeastern coast of the continent from tropical cyclones.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Fri 27/01/2006 18:10

Worth a look if it forms...

http://mpittweather.com/southemp.htm

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sat 28/01/2006 13:30

IDQ10810
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 3:04pm on Friday the 27th of January 2006

At 1pm EST a tropical low, 997 hPa, was located 160 kilometres north-east of
Townsville and moving in an easterly direction at 10 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to continue moving eastwards away from the coast over the
weekend, and has high potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it
is not expected to pose a direct threat to the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane are available on
Weather By Fax 190 293 5278 at a cost of $1.38 per minute [GST incl] and
can also be accessed through the Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical
Cyclone Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. See
http:/www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/ or to subscribe to this service
call Darwin 08 8920 3820.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 28/01/2006 13:50

the metservice 72 hour outlook mslp map has it showing near new caledonia and in a perfect spot to hit nz..(whats left of it)

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 28/01/2006 16:39

I see Tropical Cyclone Jim is born.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 28/01/2006 16:40

Tropical storm Jim is now located off queensland coast at 35kts rising to 50kts by tomorrow heading towards New Calidonia so Id say by Monday it could be Category 1.
I wonder if Jim Hickey named this storm

.
Cheers
Jason.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 28/01/2006 18:39

Its a category 1 now

Heading Northeast at the mo.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 28/01/2006 23:02

Jasestrm wrote: I wonder if Jim Hickey named this storm .
Cheers
Jason.

No.

It was named after Concrete Jim, who apparently was a hardened criminal

JohnGaul
NZTS

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sun 29/01/2006 11:53

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Jasestrm wrote: I wonder if Jim Hickey named this storm .
Cheers
Jason.
No.
It was named after Concrete Jim, who apparently was a hardened criminal

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Insert groan here]

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Sun 29/01/2006 14:12

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 153.2E
.
.
.
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 153.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTIPLE SATELLITE PLATFORMS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITIES FROM OTHER REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST AND REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 29/01/2006 15:35

Will be some huge swells coming for Eastland and Northland if the ECMWF holds out. It should remain a weak cyclone.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 30/01/2006 08:20

REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 157.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RE-VEALS A REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10P WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 30/01/2006 11:47

More a dissipating thing now but it was currently strong at one point didnt realise it reached category 2.

IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11AM EST on Sunday the 29th of January 2006

At 11 am EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 2 with central pressure 982 hPa, was located near 16.7S 154.4E, about 850 km east of Innisfail, and was moving to the east at 20km/hr. The cyclone is expected to continue to move to the east and then east southeast towards New Caledonia.

Tropical Cyclone Jim poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

Cheers
Jason.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Mon 30/01/2006 15:00

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1006.gif

Heading to the East of New Caledonia...

Manukau heads obs · Tue 31/01/2006 05:43

its intensifying and moving faster and could end up down this way alright
the tail of it is going to activate the weak low to the north of us by the looks
and so it will head towards that , yes?

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 31/01/2006 08:39

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW
FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//

It did get stronger, but will weaken rapidly once over cooler waters....who knows where it will go....these things tend to almost have a mind of their own...

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Tue 31/01/2006 09:02

Manukau heads observer wrote:its intensifying and moving faster and could end up down this way alright
the tail of it is going to activate the weak low to the north of us by the looks
and so it will head towards that , yes?

All I think it will do is cause some good Surf on the East Coast...

Bad days for fishing...

Manukau heads obs · Tue 31/01/2006 09:03

18 knots is fast
its fast moving ones that mean they still have some punch left by the time they get down this way...
this not much blocking it down here....we have a weak low/trough in this area and lots of moisture...could be a rain maker!

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 31/01/2006 09:42

REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW
FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 31/01/2006 12:47

gfs has it sitting to the north of us in 48 hrs what do ya reckon

Manukau heads obs · Tue 31/01/2006 16:37

weakening now...
it had got to 80 knot, 955 hpa system...small but a good punch!

big beroclinic leaf cloud system now just to the south of it...

i see ecmwf has it doing a loop back up to the nw...
why not it keep drifting sse onto the top or just to the NE of the NI?

NZ Weather Forum

Coral Sea Cyclone Jim

Coral Sea Cyclone Jim

From the JTWC....

update....

another update...