Tropical Cyclone Wati?

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Fri 17/02/2006 09:01

Something to look forward to next week?

Manukau heads obs · Fri 17/02/2006 09:11

that will keep tracking SE because of the big high in the tasman me thinks
(unless it can get down here sooner)

but there is alot of cold air for it to mix with, coming up from the south,so might become a big system to the east of us and keep the cool for time of year southerly going for a while as it lingers to the east maybe?

Manukau heads obs · Sat 18/02/2006 08:01

latest metvuw model run shows it weaker and even further away from us
and shows next weak front even weaker
might end up with the driest feb on record here

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 18/02/2006 08:55

That' interesting.. we've really had to rely on convection for our February rainfall.. of 61.6mm

Some rain it seems early March looking at extended GFS

Manukau heads obs · Sat 18/02/2006 09:57

from a low behind the next high from off aust in the western tasman?
(for next rain)?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 18/02/2006 10:26

from a low behind the next high from off aust in the western tasman?
(for next rain)?

Does look stable and dry for a while. Ofcoarse Feb/Mar typically very stable dry months for the wole country. Usually the stability is broken only by a trough coming in from the north with lots humidity/instability. Systems from the west/southwest at this time of year are duds.

Overall the convective season this spring/summer was quiet in most regions with the exception of Southland and the Waikato.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 18/02/2006 10:54

Roll on May 19.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 18/02/2006 11:24

Often the Pukekohe A&P show (this weekend) gets rain to end a drought
but not this year...
traditionaly there is some good rain towards the end of february
but cant see it this year

farmers just dont want a repeat of last autumn where it stayed dry until may!

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 18/02/2006 11:54

NZstorm wrote:Ofcoarse Feb/Mar typically very stable dry months for the wole country.

Yep, a lovely stable spring before a lovely stable winter down here. It's not until late spring/early summer that the wheels begin to fall off.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 18/02/2006 15:47

Getting a bit off topic here.

A nice photo of Mt Ruapehu by Goeff Mackley today. You can see the potential Lahar in the photo.

http://www.rambocam.com/index.html

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 18/02/2006 16:02

spwill wrote:Roll on May 19.

What's on this date?

Interesting to see there's still a bit of snow up on Ruapehu.. freezing levels have been around 35-4000m the last two months.

It'd be best if that lahar spewed now before the ski season.. in '95/'96 it was a total shocker.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 18/02/2006 18:25

spwill wrote:
Roll on May 19.

What's on this date?

Off to southwest USA on that date to do some sight seeing.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 18/02/2006 19:27

Usually its that week the winter like patterns start and active jetstreams

Manukau heads obs · Sat 18/02/2006 19:34

hopefully more than just sightseeing if we are lucky!
should be funnel seeing

you have got some good practive in already spwill lately with catching them on camera!

nzmaninsydney · Unread post by **nzmaninsydney** » Mon 20/02/2006 13:57

Manukau heads observer wrote:latest metvuw model run shows it weaker and even further away from us
and shows next weak front even weaker
might end up with the driest feb on record here

The driest February for Auckland was in 1909- 0.0mm was recorded-no rain fell at all during February 1909.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 20/02/2006 14:02

oh well, driest feb on record for my records starting 1957 anway
you cant beat 0.0mm
and no global warming in 1909!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 20/02/2006 14:19

Few light showers may develop on Wednesday for Auckland/Northern Coromandel.

Looking interesting ahead for the Northern Queensland coast with a tropical storm developing there.

Too bad we're going to be stuck in westerlies for the next few days.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 20/02/2006 15:17

Manukau heads observer wrote:oh well, driest feb on record for my records starting 1957 anway
you cant beat 0.0mm
and no global warming in 1909!

Actually I suspect it might have been 1908 - either way it was a long time ago - but can't check at this time. I do know that 1908 used to be quoted as the standout record dry month for the North Island, though 1973 came quite close. Will try to find out.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 20/02/2006 18:31

sorry, i should have said 1909, i was just going on memory from what i had just read on the previous page...
memory must be going bad.....LOL

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 21/02/2006 21:50

Interesting to see there's still a bit of snow up on Ruapehu.. freezing levels have been around 35-4000m the last two months.

But there was a period of cold showery west to southwest flow in early January, which should've delivered a decent dumping of the white stuff on the mountain's higher levels.

nzmaninsydney · Unread post by **nzmaninsydney** » Tue 21/02/2006 22:31

Manukau heads observer wrote:oh well, driest feb on record for my records starting 1957 anway
you cant beat 0.0mm
and no global warming in 1909!

Yes, thats true-i obtained the figures from NIWA-was really surprised that no rain fell at all over Auckland in Feb 1909 !! That is Aucklands only rainless month and it still stands to this day.

Also got figures for Wellington-In December 1916-no rain fell at all-am just wondering how this could have happened with as you say there was no global warming back then in the early 1900s-maybe u could enlighten me?

Manukau heads obs · Wed 22/02/2006 07:55

re my global warming comment
what i mean is that climate variability is normal

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Fri 24/02/2006 13:06

Ever hopeful.....

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0640.gif

http://image.weather.com/images/sat/new ... 20x486.jpg

Manukau heads obs · Fri 24/02/2006 14:05

that system is more of a sub tropical low type system, even though its in the tropics......
to me looking....
i.e its badly sheared off at the moment..
could develop into something yet?

NZ Weather Forum

Tropical Cyclone Wati?

Tropical Cyclone Wati?

Feb 1909, Auckland