Cyclone Kate

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 22/02/2006 14:40

looks intertesting see what happens thoughts anyone?

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0033 UTC 22 February 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1002 hectopascals located at
220000 UTC near 10.7 south 143.5 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
poor.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/40 knots in 18 to 24 hours time.

Seas rising very rough.

Forecast position at 221200 UTC 11.0 south and 144.9 east with central pressure
1000 hPa and maximum winds to 30 knots.

Forecast position at 230000UTC 11.0 south and 145.5 east with central pressure
998 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 22/02/2006 16:35

Can't see anything from this one squidward.. those QLD'ers are being given a hard time by the NT'ers on the WZ forums.. can see why

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 22/02/2006 22:34

yer i know i been reading they r so desprate to have a cyclone lol anyways looks like it is developing now

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 22 FEBRUARY 2006

PART 1 WARNINGS
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair. Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45 knots in 12 to 18 hours time.
Seas rising very rough.
Forecast position at 221800 UTC 11.4 south and 145.1 east with central pressure
995 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.
Forecast position at 230600UTC 11.4 south and 145.8 east with central pressure
987 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

PART 2 SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair.
A monsoon trough from 11S142E to tropical low to 12S160E to 15S170E. A high lies
in the Tasman Sea.

PART 3 FORECAST
Within 50nm of the low centre. Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45
knots in 12 to 18 hours time. Seas rising very rough.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 23/02/2006 10:37

It now has a name

Tropical storm Kate I believe that name has already been used has it not

I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
I guess its like calling the next cyclone down here Ivan and then one asks ''ohh which one''?

.
Cheers
Jason.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 23/02/2006 11:18

I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.

I can certainly understand any rules against naming hurricanes/cyclones a 2nd time after big ones that have been before - imagine another Katrina, Bola, or Tracey? But with more and more such storms to come, they'll have to start coming up with new sets of names, say Russian, Arabic (popular with right-wing Americans I can imagine) or Spanish.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 23/02/2006 11:54

tich wrote:
I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
I can certainly understand any rules against naming hurricanes/cyclones a 2nd time after big ones that have been before - imagine another Katrina, Bola, or Tracey? But with more and more such storms to come, they'll have to start coming up with new sets of names, say Russian, Arabic (popular with right-wing Americans I can imagine) or Spanish.

Hurricane Bin Laden....can't wait!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 23/02/2006 12:06

tich wrote:
I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
I can certainly understand any rules against naming hurricanes/cyclones a 2nd time after big ones that have been before - imagine another Katrina, Bola, or Tracey? But with more and more such storms to come, they'll have to start coming up with new sets of names, say Russian, Arabic (popular with right-wing Americans I can imagine) or Spanish.

Or Aboriginal?

Kate really ate up my words there!

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Thu 23/02/2006 12:17

Kate could well be the one we are waiting for...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 23/02/2006 14:29

and here she is

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:00 EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006

At 10am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 1 with central pressure
992 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.0S 145.5E, about 310 km
northeast of Lockhart River, and moving to the east-southeast at about 8 km/hr.
The cyclone is not expected to move appreciably over the next 48 hours.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 23/02/2006 17:42

I WANT a cyclone/Hurricane whatever to be called STIG.
I just think it is a cool name for such

Who do you write to about name suggestions?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Thu 23/02/2006 19:12

More of a chance here Spike.
Heavy showers here all day,lowest maximum in 4 months,only 26 today in the SE stream.
BOM are predicting a more southerly track after the weekend.
Cheers.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 23/02/2006 19:52

cat 2 now

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006

At 4pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure
985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 146.4E, about 370 km
east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the
east-southeast at about 16 km/hr, however it is expected to become slow moving
again overnight.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Thu 23/02/2006 20:00

We had some squally showers in NE NSW, they seems a affection from high pressure as they doing weathering between cyclone and high pressures. Heavy shower came here this arvo with winds gust up to 35knots!!!!

More squally showers expected to come during to ending thos week, more severe weather developing with huge storms developing before cyclone Kate gets closer!

Matt

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 24/02/2006 02:22

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006

At 10pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure
985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 147.4E, about 460 km
east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the east at
about 18 km/hr, however it is expected to slow down during the next 12 to 24
hours.

Currently Tropical Cyclone Kate poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 24/02/2006 02:24

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1204 UTC 23 February 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at
231200 UTC near 11.3 south 147.4 east and moving east at 10 knots. Position
fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and
increasing to 50 knots with 20nm of centre. Maximum winds increasing to 55 to 60
knots near the centre over the next 24 hours.

Seas rising very rough to high.

Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.3 south and 149.0 east with central pressure
980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.

Forecast position at 241200 UTC 11.2 south and 149.5 east with central pressure
975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 24/02/2006 08:30

Metvuw now projecting some activity close to NZ around Thursday next week. I would guess this has an uncertain confirdence rating?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 24/02/2006 10:00

Razor wrote:Metvuw now projecting some activity close to NZ around Thursday next week. I would guess this has an uncertain confirdence rating?

GFS is currently not picking up Kate at all well. NGP has picked it up well and it's track forecast is very interesting.

ECMWF looks pretty ugly.

Huge model variability at the moment so who knows? It has weaked significantly over night

Manukau heads obs · Fri 24/02/2006 10:19

its still a very small TC at this stage, and so needs to get a whole lot bigger for any chance of getting down this way

but they can grow like overnight!
nogaps had it moving south and then SW into queensland in one of its runs i saw

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 24/02/2006 10:32

Manukau heads observer wrote: nogaps had it moving south and then SW into queensland in one of its runs i saw

if we have ngp correct.. which is highly unlikely,
the West of NZ maybe in.. that'd be nice

Sat loop: https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/cgi-bin/l ... SIR01_L,24

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 24/02/2006 11:17

Manukau heads observer wrote:its still a very small TC at this stage, and so needs to get a whole lot bigger for any chance of getting down this way
but they can grow like overnight!
nogaps had it moving south and then SW into queensland in one of its runs i saw

Sorry I'm new here...NGP? etc? Whats the local lingo here folks, and any web links?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 24/02/2006 11:39

Razor wrote: Sorry I'm new here...NGP? etc? Whats the local lingo here folks, and any web links?

Sorry,

NOGAPS is the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System from America.. the metvuw site you had up before is purely the GFS (Global Forecast System) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in America also.

here's what the NGP is showing, https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006022312
And the Joint Typhoon Warning Center use that to forecast it's tracks (with guidance!) (http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi)

the ECMWF model is very accurate and boasts the most computer power (http://www.ecmwf.int) (a joint EU operation)

yet the UKMO model from the UK Met Office proved the best hurricane global model to work from last year in the Atlantic.

Then you have models like GASP, LAPS, T-LAPS, JMA, and MM5 models which the BoM and MetService uses

Manukau heads obs · Fri 24/02/2006 12:02

wow, nogpas gives an interesting prognosis!
lots of wind and rain right down to brisbane, then it could come across to say hi to nz!

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 24/02/2006 15:51

kate dies overnight

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

CORRECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1100 EST on Friday the 24th of February 2006

At 11am EST Friday, Ex Tropical Cyclone Kate with central pressure 995 hPa, was
located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 146.5E, about 400 km east-northeast
of Lockhart River. The system will continue to be monitored and if it redevelops
further information bulletins will be issued.

Manukau heads obs · Fri 24/02/2006 16:01

i thought it was looking smaller and less significant on the sat image

been a real fizzer so far this year for TC's
maybe the northern hemisphere big seasons leaves nothing left for the southern hemisphere......LOL

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 24/02/2006 20:47

Probably the tropical boundary is furthur north than normal as the northern hempisphere seems to be rewarming also early again after their mild winter

Manukau heads observer wrote:i thought it was looking smaller and less significant on the sat image

been a real fizzer so far this year for TC's
maybe the northern hemisphere big seasons leaves nothing left for the southern hemisphere......LOL