Very dangerous weather situation ahead

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Tue 14/03/2006 18:58

Quite an interesting exercise -

Looking at the 2004-2006 chart it looks as if you could put in a trend or regression type curve in there.... Looking at the bigger picture of the 1980 - 2006 long term chart ... nope I couldn't put any form of trend analysis onto it and feel happy doing it.

El NiÃ±o and La NiÃ±a forecasting I wouldn't attempt numerically, pass the Neurofen!

Cheers,

G

Manukau heads obs · Tue 14/03/2006 19:10

an 11 year el nino cycle used to work well, but 2004 did not fit with that cycle as being the next big el nino

so there must be another cycle camiflaging that 11 year (sunspot linked) cycle ......

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 14/03/2006 20:30

Matt Townsend wrote:I have thought about this so many times and i do have thinking time too! La nina is real and it coming, if u say it not come, that means NZL won't get it, prove it: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Look on the charts about it and it seems climbing alot, alright?

Matt

Just listen for a change: I didn't say a Nina was NOT developing, and didn't say it WAS - said it was UNCLEAR.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 15/03/2006 18:29

It had reached postive 5! Nice cooling trend in most place if this period increases, i hope this time might help the droughts to kick away

Matt

Manukau heads obs · Wed 15/03/2006 18:49

note that its the 30 day rolling average that needs to be used
as otherwise on any givn day the SOI just reflects what is happening at the time, e.g a higher (passing high near) or lower pressure (passing low nearby) in either Darwin or Easter island....

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/03/2006 20:25

Matt, its looks like a TC is slowly forming in the NE part of the Coral sea.....if it moves towards Queensland, it could do some damage, as it looks like it could end up being a big one I think...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 16/03/2006 20:31

yes interesting development in the coral sea you know me i will put a post up when it is likely to become a cyclone if someone does not beat me to it

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 16/03/2006 20:54

squid wrote:yes interesting development in the coral sea you know me i will put a post up when it is likely to become a cyclone if someone does not beat me to it

It will

...but unfortunately should move inland
Dosen't look promising for any future development? ..but things could change. Outlook looks boring?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/03/2006 20:57

yes, pretty boring weather pattern for the NI at least anyway for the next week...no rain....getting drier and drier here
but was a nice day for fishing today on the manukau

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 16/03/2006 21:01

Manukau heads observer wrote: but was a nice day for fishing today on the manukau

...obviously no gales there, Brian

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 16/03/2006 21:44

not today but was yesteray

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Manukau heads observer wrote: but was a nice day for fishing today on the manukau

...obviously no gales there, Brian

JohnGaul
NZTS

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 18/03/2006 12:01

The CYCLONE??? I thought it finished? LOL it so real hehe, i haven't been on pc for 2 days. What happening?

Matt

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 19/03/2006 10:05

EVENT ONE: Cyclone Larry Disaster!

WOW this is quick, larry seems hitting nice towns up north queensland, how sad those ppl in Whitsunday Islands have to leave, it like ruining their holidays! Larry is Katrina storm like in US last season, dangerous winds gusts up to 230km/hr but not either reported yet, i have to wait and see whats happening during this time. Beach erosion cause more frequent disconstructive waves along the coast between Cairns to Mackay. The eye of a cyclone Larry seem opening up very soon!

Matt

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 20/03/2006 19:53

I think it start of la nina period now after larry hits?

Matt

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 20/03/2006 22:16

Matt Townsend wrote:I think it start of la nina period now after larry hits?

Matt

Hope not

JohnGaul
NZ Anti-La Nina Society

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:20

Too early to say.
Unlike John Gaul, I'd welcome it.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:23

RWood wrote:Too early to say.
Unlike John Gaul, I'd welcome it.

I think I would too.

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:31

Ok... Here comes Mr. Newbie... What implications would La Nina have for NZ and (more importantly, me!) weatherwise?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 20/03/2006 22:32

Flutterbye wrote:
RWood wrote:Too early to say.
Unlike John Gaul, I'd welcome it.
I think I would too.

Invercargill and Christchurch weather would be SO Boring

We'd continually moan like some others on this forum

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:33

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Matt Townsend wrote:I think it start of la nina period now after larry hits?

Matt

Hope not

JohnGaul
NZ Anti-La Nina Society

Why are you so anti La Nina JohnGaul?

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:35

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Flutterbye wrote: I think I would too.
Invercargill and Christchurch weather would be SO Boring
We'd continually moan like some others on this forum

JohnGaul
NZTS

NOOOOOOOO!!!!

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:36

I think going La Nina normally means a lot of dry, warm and settled weather her in the deep south so if that's the case bring it on. $\:D/$

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:39

This is worth a read Andrew..
http://www.niwascience.co.nz/edu/students/faq/enln

Cheers

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:45

Foggy Hamilton wrote:This is worth a read Andrew..
http://www.niwascience.co.nz/edu/students/faq/enln

Cheers

Thanks Foggy! EXACTLY what I was looking for!

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Mon 20/03/2006 22:52

Andrew Massie wrote:
Foggy Hamilton wrote:This is worth a read Andrew..
http://www.niwascience.co.nz/edu/students/faq/enln

Cheers
Thanks Foggy! EXACTLY what I was looking for!

..... But not what I am looking for weatherwise! Sorry Flutterbye! I'm one of these weather chasing freaks, but I also work in a job that makes me HATE nice weather! Shame really!