Very dangerous weather situation ahead

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 06/03/2006 22:59

I have to tell u something very important, i am very serious this time. I have predicted something is unusual, it very dangerous. I have watched the monsoon trough and it seems going southwards, i had checked the Tennant creek air pressures is dropping. Some areas had too, like Darwin and Cairns, they seems affecting some large thunderstorms over few days. BOM have predicted la nina is redeveloping end of this winter and it might affect us hardest. It causing to bring some large cyclone storms, heavy swells, strong winds gusts, floods and many more disasters.
This map shows the warmest water over eastern Australia coasts: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/surf_jan.gif
Very nasty stuff had happened on this page: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
I have watched everything and i record them, it seems rising every week so rapid, coastal convergence is still along Australia east coast and they seems sitting duck there much!
Blue coloured area is going away!!!!!!!!! http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sst_weekly.gif
The red coloured areas is the higher than average, casuing more cyclones to develop north of Capricorna line and expected to bring more cyclones chances in it's south. I think the weather is going normal atm, but it seems going worst futhermore.

Any Comments?

Matt Townsend

Manukau heads obs · Tue 07/03/2006 12:55

arent they looking for good rains in queensland to top up reservoirs after years of below average rainfall?

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Tue 07/03/2006 18:13

Brisbane and some local area not including where i am, they have severe water restrictions as the rain event brought not enough rain to full them up like Sydney Warragamba dam.

I conceded this event is over average of high destructive in weather, the scale is overdue and it seems something is saving up to make a large event of wiping cyclones and severe thunderstorms. La nina is saving them up, it could be twice it worst in 1974 or 1954. Because the thermal cycle is swirling up in mesosphere to create large cyclones or thunderstorms as affecting events like La nina. I think it might happen this first 20 years ahead for 2030's. There is no cycle of cyclones and storms waves, it changes when the toughest chance of heating and moisture.

Please do NOT pollute our atmosphere cause it worsening the weather cycle.

Matt Townsend

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 07/03/2006 19:52

On the basis of the last ENSO wrapup from BOM, your fears are somewhat exaggerated. At this time there is not even a consensus that any la Nina will develop at all in the next few months. We'll see what the 8 March update brings.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Tue 07/03/2006 20:00

I never to be exaggerate about this, LOL i know you are really pissing me off, i have been working on this so many times. I have been told by models, la nina is predicting actually did u read on BOM satistics about la nina breifing.

Matt

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 07/03/2006 20:11

Matt Townsend wrote:...i know you are really pissing me off...

He's good at that.

I KID, RWood!

...i have been working on this so many times.

Uhuh.

Say, Rwood, which Aussie town was it where the fleabrain was topping up that rain gauge...?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 21:48

I don't think any weather situations would be regarded as 'dangerous'

There are situations where weather events have caused distruction, deaths and general washing away of the land but people living in areas that are proned to such weather events should be fully prepared for them.
....but I'm speaking from Christchurch, which must be one of the safe-ist places on the planet, weather wize, as nothing much destuctive happens here

...
.....rather boring really

JohnGaul
NZTS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 07/03/2006 21:53

For all we know John a destructive tornado could come raging through chch city tomorrow night

but its very unlikly.
Sensationalist claims is what they call it

from the movie day after tomorrow which means overdoing a situation when it really isn't as bad as it seams.
Cheers
Jason.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 07/03/2006 22:02

Jasestrm wrote:For all we know John a destructive tornado could come raging through chch city tomorrow night but its very unlikly.
Sensationalist claims is what they call it from the movie day after tomorrow which means overdoing a situation when it really isn't as bad as it seams.
Cheers
Jason.

I thought that was a documentary?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 22:12

Jasestrm wrote:For all we know John a destructive tornado could come raging through chch city tomorrow night but its very unlikly.
Sensationalist claims is what they call it from the movie day after tomorrow which means overdoing a situation when it really isn't as bad as it seams.
Cheers
Jason.

I understand where Matt is getting at ..but when "Cyclone Stig" does make 'landfall' people should be prepared for it ???
I know, I would be, if I was there at the time...

...now back to filling out my Census form. I hope all you people put 'New Zealander' as you're ethnic origin?

JohnGaul
NZTS

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 07/03/2006 22:25

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:now back to filling out my Census form. I hope all you people put 'New Zealander' as you're ethnic origin?

JohnGaul
NZTS

I "TICKED" the "Other" box and wrote: "FIFTH GENERATION NEW ZEALANDER". Hopefully they might get the hint.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 22:30

tgsnoopy wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:now back to filling out my Census form. I hope all you people put 'New Zealander' as you're ethnic origin?

JohnGaul
NZTS
I "TICKED" the "Other" box and wrote: "FIFTH GENERATION NEW ZEALANDER". Hopefully they might get the hint.

Good one

"Good on you, mate"

JohnGaul
NZTS

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 07/03/2006 22:38

Whats with the horizontal lines anyway? Ticks are much easier. By the time I realised it was more than half filled in, so why change then.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 07/03/2006 22:58

tgsnoopy wrote:Whats with the horizontal lines anyway? Ticks are much easier. By the time I realised it was more than half filled in, so why change then.

What about the people who get the shakes when they write

get off the bed whilst doing Census forms

.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 23:08

tgsnoopy wrote:Whats with the horizontal lines anyway? Ticks are much easier. By the time I realised it was more than half filled in, so why change then.

I sat down relaxed and read the info required before I filled out the form.
It stated to put horizontal lines, so I put them.
My wife filled out the Dwelling Census form and was putting ticks until I told her to stop and read the intructions, saying that you had to put a horizontal line instead of ticks. She told me it didn't matter anyway, so our dwelling form is full of ticks.
I was disappointing that they didn't include the question - "How many thunderstorm admirers are in you house tonight, this March 7th Census Night"

.......anyway getting right offf topic

JohnGaul
NZTS

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 07/03/2006 23:10

Gary Roberts wrote:
Matt Townsend wrote:...i know you are really pissing me off...
He's good at that.

I KID, RWood!

...i have been working on this so many times.
Uhuh.

Say, Rwood, which Aussie town was it where the fleabrain was topping up that rain gauge...?

I think it was Tully? in northern Q'land.

But seriously - I don't think there's any strong siganl re La Nina at the moment, I don't know what this guy is getting excited about.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 07/03/2006 23:16

Matt Townsend wrote:I never to be exaggerate about this, LOL i know you are really pissing me off, i have been working on this so many times. I have been told by models, la nina is predicting actually did u read on BOM satistics about la nina breifing.

Matt

This is the current view - update very soon.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Manukau heads obs · Wed 08/03/2006 06:52

there is only 6 weeks left of the TC season (unless something happens in May

) , so not that much chance let of a TC for queensland?

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 08/03/2006 09:56

Guys, i found something is unusual, and it very dangerous, if it severe. I looked on full disk satetille: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1374.shtml
It shows huge storm clouds west of Perth and i haven't seen like this before, i never seen a trough line banning from west to east from the ocean.

Matt

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 08/03/2006 14:30

West of Perth is clear skies...

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 08/03/2006 21:06

AHHHHHHH GOD you all still not listening me!!!! How rude

ON the full disk satetille on western edge shows the huge front with thunderstorms and i not meant at Perth!

Matt

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 08/03/2006 21:27

BTW guys the charts are agreeing me, i told you guy ti happening, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ It still increasing now and it had climbed very rapid!

Matt

Manukau heads obs · Wed 08/03/2006 21:46

try this one matt
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... tpfile.gif
much better

you get distortions on the horizon with the full disc...i.e you are looking at a TC over the horizon

BTW, impressive jet stream cloud in the far north tasman today
should spawn a low their ina week from now by the looks of the ECMWF model

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 08/03/2006 22:07

Well thanks for my help buddy, in case if do u have a msn? add me please ok?

That cyclone seems category 4-5 to me with huge inflow band clouds developing to trigger some thunderstorms activity over!

Matt

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 08/03/2006 22:42

Yes well one can only wait and see what happens but Matt you certainly have something there developing will keep on the lookout for the development of these beauts.
Cheers
Jason.