Thunderstorms for Christchurch 8th March.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 19:05

I'm fairly confident of a thunderstorm tomorrow for ChCh with the Sw change. $\:D/$
I haven't checked MetSerices predictions yet and also what BlueSkiesforecast apart from what Aaron indicated on Sunday, apart from TV One's forecast just forecasted on the TV.
A confidence now of 4 on my scale.
Reports and pictures tomorrow after the event.

JohnGaul
NZTS

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 07/03/2006 19:20

If will be at night tomoro, John so hope you can take night shots or something!

Yea does look ok, coldest air doesnt arrive here till after midnight so wait and see. Also GFS isnt forcasting much rain to come, will have closer look at models tomoro.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 07/03/2006 20:17

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I'm fairly confident of a thunderstorm tomorrow for ChCh with the Sw change. $\:D/$
I haven't checked MetSerices predictions yet and also what BlueSkiesforecast apart from what Aaron indicated on Sunday, apart from TV One's forecast just forecasted on the TV.
A confidence now of 4 on my scale.
Reports and pictures tomorrow after the event.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Remember. To. Charge. All. Batteries!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 07/03/2006 20:39

Pity that change is coming thru so late. Should be some good cb development though over the warmer sea with the chance of these maritime thunderstorms affecting the coast.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 07/03/2006 20:50

NZstorm wrote:Pity that change is coming thru so late. Should be some good cb development though over the warmer sea with the chance of these maritime thunderstorms affecting the coast.

Is 6.30/7.00pm to late??

http://img122.imageshack.us/img122/6406 ... 0171yz.png

Although i must admit the different models are coughing up slightly different times of the change. Good Cape just to the south of chch aswell.
Cape

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 21:32

At current momento, CAPe and L/Index aside, anythime 'twixt 3pm and 9pm is looking good. I can, at the moment, see no reason for an onshore NE or ENE resistence to persist to the change without a westerly or a NW flow coming in before the change,spoiling things.

HOWever, as we have very low barometer pressure, which is most useful for a thunderstorm event to happen, things could change which will reduce the chance to a 2 or be upgraded to a full blown 5 event.
More on that tomorrow. In the meanwhilst, be fully charged

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Tue 07/03/2006 21:45

No thunderstorms here this evening. After a pleasant day with 18.1 a brief westerly change went through earlier tonight but only dropped 1mm.
I thought we would have got more by the look of the front. Now back to a NNW breeze but very cool on 9.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Tue 07/03/2006 22:26

Lots of rain today. So far 21mm. Was told of a thunderstorm around 4pm today (I was inside a concrete building with barbed wired fences and windows only 2ft wide... yes that's work). There was a brief hailstorm after 5pm

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 07/03/2006 22:35

Fujita Phil wrote:Lots of rain today. So far 21mm. Was told of a thunderstorm around 4pm today (I was inside a concrete building with barbed wired fences and windows only 2ft wide... yes that's work). There was a brief hailstorm after 5pm

could be true, Phil
Dunedin could in for a good dowsing tomorrow, with thunder, earlier than Christchurch. $\:D/$

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 07/03/2006 23:12

Pity that change is coming thru so late. Should be some good cb development though over the warmer sea with the chance of these maritime thunderstorms affecting the coast.

The Anzac Weekend blast last year hit Chch 'too late' (ie after dark), yet still managed to deliver a spectacular storm to the city. (though tomorrow's change probably won't be as strong as that one)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 08/03/2006 06:54

Is 6.30/7.00pm to late??

Given warm sea temps at this time of year, it is never too late when the upper gets so cold.

3pm is ideal though as the daytime heating over land gives that additional CAPE. CH's temps don't hold up well after dusk.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 08/03/2006 08:50

Fresh snow down to 1,000m overnight.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 08/03/2006 09:29

Whats the happs in ChCh at the moment? Looks like some mammatus like cloud on Jeffs Weather cam?

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 08/03/2006 10:35

I see the MS had upped the risk in coastal areas along the East Coast of the S. Island:

A major upper trough will move over the South Island today and an associated pool of cold air aloft is expected to set off deep convection over the lower two thirds of the island. There appear to be several wind shifts moving up the eastern side of the island and this makes things a bit tricky. However, there is a high risk of thunderstorms developing on perhaps two of these wind changes which will move througheastern Otago and Canterbury through the period. These thunderstorms have the potential to produce hail in the 10 to 20mm range and wind gusts up to 90km/h.

By late in the day,the heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms pushing into Southland this morning will gradually become lighter and less in intense.

Throughout the day, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to spread along the Fiordland and Westland coasts as far north as Westport.

In the north east of the North Island, there is likely to be a few heavier showers with a front moving across this afternoon, and there is a continued low risk of a few embedded thunderstorms developing as it crosses this afternoon.

Gotta love it when they say "tricky"...hmmm....Got my camera's batteries charged, regardless...now a waiting game

Any news on revised Lifted Indeces or CAPEs?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 08/03/2006 10:56

Wind should be SW all day for Christchurch..still very reasonable CAPE and LI off Banks Peninsular developing.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 08/03/2006 11:16

Well things looking up so farr sunny and warm on 18C with a fresh cool NE breeze hopefully it sticks around until the change.
Someone comented on the mamatus you often see that before a cold change here but you can also see it in a NW arch if the apper level is cold enough.
In America they believe Mamatus is the sign of large hail and possible tornadoes to follow but thats not the case here

.
I now see two troughs coming off that low in the farr south

according to MS isobaric image at 7am i thats the case Farr south could be in for good dosing.
Cheers
Jason.

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 08/03/2006 11:40

We have had some interesting buildups around here. Not a normal Dunedin sky for sure. A little bit of light rain now on the back of 10C. Heard of heavy rain in Queenstown earlier this morning

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 08/03/2006 12:04

Just starting to rain now - very cold on 8, has been a NNW breeze but it's now swinging to the west. The picture was taken just after 10.30am.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 08/03/2006 12:15

Oh no it's turned NW darn actually it's W-SW the wind i just figured it out

.
22C now iam actually glad most of my vege's are picked bcoz they wil probly get a hiding this evening with the hail.
EDIT.. Strikes already going off near the Otago coast and it's only lunchtime looking good so farr

.
Cheers
Jason.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 08/03/2006 13:56

It's like a Thunderstorm playground out there

towering CU everywhere looks to be a good storm going off near Timaru coast at the moment too.
Beta start getting ready canty storm chasers looks like some early storms.
Cheers
Jason.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 08/03/2006 14:07

Slightly off topic...from my vantage point in Addington there appears to be a rather large fire/burnoff south and west of the city towards Halswell area...anyone know what that is all about?

Now back on-topic...CB clouds building all over the place and the sky is beginning to darken south and west....I can see all the way to the mountains from here and you can see showers coming down...much needed rain, for sure...are we in for an early treat today? SOMETHING going on down south, for sure near Timaru.....

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Wed 08/03/2006 14:27

Hi all,

very active thunderstorm area northeast of Dunedin, in the Timaru area as some have said and now in coastal south Canterbury. Hail diagnosis routine indicates high prob of 18mm hail in a storm near Ashburton.

...and its early yet!

Paul

mikechamble · Unread post by **mikechamble** » Wed 08/03/2006 14:29

Slightly off topic...from my vantage point in Addington there appears to be a rather large fire/burnoff south and west of the city towards Halswell area...anyone know what that is all about?

Now back on-topic...CB clouds building all over the place and the sky is beginning to darken south and west....I can see all the way to the mountains from here and you can see showers coming down...much needed rain, for sure...are we in for an early treat today? SOMETHING going on down south, for sure near Timaru.....

yeah i was sitting up in the canty uni library 11th floor about 30 mins ago and could see pretty much what you could see gllitz. I was wondering what that burnoff was too, weird.

Over to the lightning Detector there is something major activity happening off the coast of timaru. A couple of massive clusters of strikes.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 08/03/2006 14:41

It would appear now the storm is moving/spreading up the coast!!

...at least, according to storm tracker...I guess we shall see in the next hour or so...skies are darkening to the south and west...time to get out the cameras yet?
-G

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Wed 08/03/2006 14:42

Report on that saferics non stop now and very loud one cluster of saferics scared the **** out of me it was that loud

going by detector the storms are moving closer.
Batteries all charged up for an early storm.
EDIT... Idon't think this storm will get us the tracker is ranging it in the wrong area aye there is nothing to the SW to where elsemere is to indicate a storm its more SE where it looks like being one.
Better luck this evening when the proper change hits.
Cheers
Jason.

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Thunderstorms for Christchurch 8th March.

Thunderstorms for Christchurch 8th March.

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