Indicators soon tending positive for cyclogenesis

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 12/03/2006 21:54

Ok.. MJO is passing through between Indonesia and Australia producing a monsoon trough line.. shear is strong at the moment so no development just yet. Seas still warming, peaking very soon for warmth.
Coral sea is around 1.5c above normal, NZ waters have become cooler than normal.

Incoming southeasterly low set deepen rapidly off Eastland. Northeasterlies developing soon over the upper NI this weekend..and easterlies may follow.

Hopefully a cyclone will develop somewhere and last.. we are overdue. Please!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 12/03/2006 22:52

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Ok.. MJO is passing through between Indonesia and Australia producing a monsoon trough line.. shear is strong at the moment so no development just yet. Seas still warming, peaking very soon for warmth.
Coral sea is around 1.5c above normal, NZ waters have become cooler than normal.

Incoming southeasterly low set deepen rapidly off Eastland. Northeasterlies developing soon over the upper NI this weekend..and easterlies may follow.

Hopefully a cyclone will develop somewhere and last.. we are overdue. Please!

Not really

Just brings boring weather down here, anticyclonic wize.. ie. pushes high pressure down here when we don't want it.

Dull boring days, or should I say ...DAZE

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Mon 13/03/2006 08:00

well, Bob Mc Davitt does say in his weekly weathergram that later this week this looks ripe for a TC to develop

this next low to deepen to our NE....if it can just nudge close enough, then we will get some rain from it....but we dont normaly get much rain here from the SE

it will be just my luck that a major storm will develop while I am in brisbane for a week from friday!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 13/03/2006 10:02

Latest metvuw charts have pulled it in much closer to the eatern NI. Could be some warning imminent for tomorrow and Wednesday?

Manukau heads obs · Mon 13/03/2006 15:06

humm
ECMWF has the low to our NE only brushing east cape and then moving away and a new high cominig onto the NI
and so the run of dry weather continues here!
nothing showing on that model run for another week (as the next tasman low is going to weaken according to that model run (but the models have been all over the place, differeing each day, lately!

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 13/03/2006 18:33

well the monsoon is very active atm so anything could happen

Manukau heads obs · Wed 15/03/2006 06:49

still nothing taken hold yet, and nothing on the metvu models
just the same dry pattern
the low to our NE has moved away now

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Wed 15/03/2006 10:14

Almost seems if there is a larger circulation at work here with all the lows either being blocked or shoved east. Maybe the the forcasted wet March is going to be April.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 15/03/2006 10:20

NIWA didn't forecast a wet March. Did someone else do so?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 15/03/2006 12:01

Almost seems if there is a larger circulation at work here with all the lows either being blocked or shoved east.

Tropical lows tend to move to the north and east of NZ. A blocking high to the east of the NI would direct development to our north onto us.

Seems to me to be a quiet year for Cyclones to our north, there's about 8 weeks left in the season.

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Wed 15/03/2006 12:20

Speaking more about my location here in the Hawkes Bay, March seems to be a dry breaking month. Statisicaly I don't know if it is or not, but since I have lived here we normally get rains from one of these lows and we are away after that. Blue Skies mentioned a higher likelyhood of wet spells in March in there 3 month outlook.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 15/03/2006 14:10

Achten wrote:Speaking more about my location here in the Hawkes Bay, March seems to be a dry breaking month. Statisicaly I don't know if it is or not, but since I have lived here we normally get rains from one of these lows and we are away after that. Blue Skies mentioned a higher likelyhood of wet spells in March in there 3 month outlook.

I've got some records for Napier so could have a look at that.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 15/03/2006 15:06

Achten wrote:Blue Skies mentioned a higher likelyhood of wet spells in March in there 3 month outlook.

What we meant was wet spells more likely in March than in April or May, not necessarily that March would be wetter than normal. Our prediction for rainfall for Hawkes Bay was "65-115%, variable across all months, both April and May could be dry"

Manukau heads obs · Wed 15/03/2006 15:21

i see the ECMWF model has a TC in the coral sea on friday and moves it WSW into queensland...on sunday.....I will be in Brisbane then...maybe i need to do a TC chase, LOL!

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/03/2006 08:31

there is a nice looking group of big CB's near the Solomon Islands now, could develop into something over the next day or so...

MaxM · Unread post by **MaxM** » Thu 16/03/2006 10:56

Excuse me, that's probably a somewhat stupid question for you... but how much does it matter to New Zealand when thunderstorms are developing near the Solomon Islands. Sorry, I don't really know how weather develops for New Zealand so please excuse my naiive question.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 16/03/2006 11:05

how much does it matter to New Zealand when thunderstorms are developing near the Solomon Islands.

When Lows form up there they sometimes head our way and it is Tropical Cyclone season

MaxM · Unread post by **MaxM** » Thu 16/03/2006 11:13

Do tropical cyclones actually hit NZ sometimes? I know they hit Australia (just a few months ago Northwestern Australia was struck by a very strong cyclone) but I never thought they could also hit NZ!

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Thu 16/03/2006 12:39

MaxM wrote:Do tropical cyclones actually hit NZ sometimes? I know they hit Australia (just a few months ago Northwestern Australia was struck by a very strong cyclone) but I never thought they could also hit NZ!

we do get the odd one, in particular cyclone bola was a biggie.

We often get tropical lows that have developed from a weakening TC, in an event like this our east coast of the north island can often get huge rainfalls and cause localised flooding and other damge, hence why keeping an eye on these events as they occur may prove to be useful for mitigating the effects.

We often see lows forming off the top of aussie, then they head down the east coast and eventually fizzle out. For the rest of the North Island the air on either side of the system may also be unstable and these can cause other rain events to occur over the rest of the island which may be of concern

hope this helps

Manukau heads obs · Thu 16/03/2006 14:58

hi
the solomons is a good spot for one to get us from ...all depends on its movement...but from there they often move into queensland...like this one could if it develops (its looking more likely something will develop as time goes on I reckon (there is a broad rotation occuring now)
from brisbane:

At noon, Wednesday 15/03/2006, a 1003 hPa tropical low was centred well out in
the Coral Sea near 12S 158E and slow moving. The low has a moderate chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone during the next few days. At the present
time, the low is not influencing Queensland's weather.

did you get over to ntherb aust cnimbus??>

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 16/03/2006 15:49

I reckon the cyclone season has finished now.The SW are currently battering South Africa.The roaring 40s are now moving north early,Reckon the sort of cyclogenis we will get (when it does and will happen in the tasman) is caused by from a jetstream moving from under Australia

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 16/03/2006 20:34

still possible for cyclones for the next 6 weeks yet

MaxM · Unread post by **MaxM** » Fri 17/03/2006 02:52

Hi Nimbus,

thx for your kind answer! Now I've learnt something new.

Max

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Indicators soon tending positive for cyclogenesis

Indicators soon tending positive for cyclogenesis

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