Cyclone Larry

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 16/03/2006 21:02

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low with central pressure about 1000 hectopascals centred at
160600UTC near 13.9S 158.4E and moving slowly south. Position fair. The low is
slowly deepening and likely to become a tropical cyclone within 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre in southern quadrants and within 50nm in northern
quadrants.

FORECAST
Forecast position
near 14.6S 158.2E at 161800UTC and
near 15.2S 157.4E at 170600UTC.
Winds increasing to 34 to 40 knots within the forecast area during the next
24 hours.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 16/03/2006 21:04

Looks like there's a chance of a Tropical Cyclone for Cairns early next week.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 16/03/2006 21:08

I think so too. An "Aussie Inlander" as I call it, judging by the models

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 16/03/2006 21:36

Yes, something nasty in store for tropical Queensland.

On a different topic, noticed this report in the Ashburton newspaper today
http://www.ashburtonguardian.co.nz/inde ... cleid=6748

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 16/03/2006 22:00

Inetersting story there Steven, didn't know anything about that?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 16/03/2006 22:30

Hmm, that's a bit of a random one re the Ashburton Hail storm. Didn't notice any lightning or hail that night here (then again I was asleep and it probably didnt' come this far north). And the set up didn't look all that good from what I can remember, especially since it was a night storm.

Oh well, good to see the rouge storms can pop up from time to time...

And cool re the cyclone!!

Cheers

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 16/03/2006 22:46

Would never have knowen here either!! lol

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 16/03/2006 23:07

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:
Oh well, good to see the rouge storms can pop up from time to time...

I prefer purple-complexioned ones myseljavascript:emoticon(':lojavascript:emoticon(':D')l:')f

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 17/03/2006 00:05

Quite a bit of model variability in this one for the time being..

Looks good this time next week for something to really fire up.

These ridges over SE Australia -> NZ are being pushed up too northwards unfortunately.. but there should be heavy rain instore for greater Mt Isa region.. and from Townsville to Mackay.. and that heavy rain may even develop down as far as Brisbane, and then hit use nicely

MaxM · Unread post by **MaxM** » Fri 17/03/2006 02:50

If I remember correctly, Australia had a cyclone just a few weeks ago in the Northwest, didn'd they?

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Fri 17/03/2006 07:29

NZstorm wrote:On a different topic, noticed this report in the Ashburton newspaper today
http://www.ashburtonguardian.co.nz/inde ... cleid=6748

The story is actually dated February 8 (right at the bottom) so it refers to the overnight storm on 5th Feb

http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/forum/vi ... php?t=1671

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Fri 17/03/2006 07:48

Steven Graham wrote:
NZstorm wrote:On a different topic, noticed this report in the Ashburton newspaper today
http://www.ashburtonguardian.co.nz/inde ... cleid=6748
The story is actually dated February 8 (right at the bottom) so it refers to the overnight storm on 5th Feb

http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/forum/vi ... php?t=1671

Well that would explain everything!!

Thanks for clearing that up Steven!

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 17/03/2006 22:29

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low with central pressure 998 hectopascals centred at 170600UTC near
15.2S 159.5E and was moving SW at 10 knots. Position good. The low is slowly
deepening and likely to become a tropical cyclone within 12 to 24 hours. The low
is expected to begin moving west overnight. A trough extends west of the low
centre out to 300 nautical miles.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100nm of the low centre, and within 120 nautical miles to the north of
the trough.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to 34 to 40 knots around the low, and south west
winds 35 knots within 120 nautical miles to the north of the trough.

Forecast positions
Near 15.4S 157.8E at 171800UTC and
Near 15.7S 156.3E at 180600UTC.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 18/03/2006 13:32

Larry is born

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:48am on Saturday the 18th of March 2006

A Cyclone WATCH has been issued for coastal and island communities
between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine.

At 8am, Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 1, was centred near latitude
16.5 south longitude 157.4 east, which is 1240 kilometres east of Cairns.

Tropical Cyclone Larry is expected to intensify further and move in a westerly
direction over the weekend at about 15 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Larry is expected to affect coastal and island areas between
Cape Tribulation and Proserpine early Monday morning.

People living between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine should consider actions
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next
advice. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available
from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 11am EST Saturday

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 18/03/2006 13:50

cat 2 now

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:32am on Saturday the 18th of March 2006

A Cyclone WATCH has been issued for coastal and island communities
between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine.

At 10am, Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 2, was centred near latitude
17.2 south longitude 156.6 east, which is 1150 kilometres east of Cairns.

Tropical Cyclone Larry is expected to intensify further and move in a westerly
direction over the weekend at about 25 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Larry is expected to affect coastal and island areas between
Cape Tribulation and Proserpine early Monday morning.

People living between Cape Tribulation and Proserpine should consider actions
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next
advice. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available
from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued at 5pm EST Saturday

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sat 18/03/2006 19:36

Shucks,just my luck.
Im currently in Ashburton.

Warm day here,temp up to 26 degrees.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 18/03/2006 21:28

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:46pm on Saturday the 18th of March 2006

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Tribulation to Mackay.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Cape Tribulation.

At 4 pm AEST Saturday, Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 2 with central pressure
975 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.0 south and
longitude 155.5 east, about 1040 km east of Cairns. The cyclone is expected to
intensify further, and move towards the west-southwest at about 20 km/h over the
next 24 hours. The centre of Tropical Cyclone Larry is likely to be near the
Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 115 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late Sunday afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Tribulation and Mackay overnight Sunday.

Very destructive winds, with gusts to 200 km/h, may develop on the coast between
Cairns and Bowen on Monday morning.

As the centre approaches the coast, sea levels are likely to rise well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas near the
shoreline.

Heavy to flood rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and
Mackay during Sunday night.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 2, for 4 PM AEST Saturday
Central Pressure : 975 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 17.0 degrees south
longitude 155.5 degrees east
about 1040 kilometres east of Cairns
Recent Movement : West at 20 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 80 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 150 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Tribulation and Mackay should immediately commence
preparations, especially the securing of boats and property, using available
daylight hours.

People between Cape Flattery and Cape Tribulation should consider what action
they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 18/03/2006 23:07

Heck! Another cyclone looks well possible after Larry too!

Talk of it being QLD's strongest cyclonic system in 20 years

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 02:00

cat 3 now

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:47pm on Saturday the 18th of March 2006

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Flattery to Mackay.

At 10 pm AEST Saturday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 3 with central
pressure 970 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.2 south
and longitude 154.2 east, about 900 km east of Cairns. The cyclone is expected
to intensify further, and move towards the west at about 22 km/h over the next
24 hours. The centre of Tropical Cyclone Larry is likely to be near the
Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late Sunday afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Flattery and Mackay overnight Sunday.

Very destructive winds, with gusts to 230 km/h, may develop on the coast between
Cape Tribulation and Bowen on Monday morning.

As the centre approaches the coast, sea levels are likely to rise well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas near the
shoreline.

Heavy to flood rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and
Mackay during Sunday night.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 3, for 10 PM AEST Saturday
Central Pressure : 970 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 17.2 degrees south
longitude 154.2 degrees east
about 900 kilometres east of Cairns
Recent Movement : West-southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 80 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 170 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Flattery and Mackay should continue preparations, and in
particular secure boats and property.

The next advice will be issued at 2am AEST Sunday.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 19/03/2006 10:09

Looks like Larry will be category 4-5 just off the coast of Carins by this time tomorrow

.
Check this out I found this on the Convection thunderstorm outook on MS.

Severe Convection/ Thunderstorm Outlook
To add this to your My Weather
page you must be logged in.

Valid to: 11:00 am 19 Mar 2006 NZST
Issued at: 1:00 pm 1 Jan 1970 NZDT

1:00pm 1st of January 1970

major coff up.

Cheers
Jason.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 19/03/2006 11:17

Cat4 will be nasty. A good opportunity for hurricane chasers.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 12:18

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For Broadcast within the hour. The Standard Emergency Warning Signal
should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:43am on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Flattery to Mackay and extending to inland areas about Chillagoe and
Charters Towers.

At 7 am AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 3 with central
pressure 965 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.6 south
and longitude 152.1 east, about 680 km east of Cairns. The cyclone is expected
to intensify further, and move in a general westerly direction at about 25 km/h
over the next 24 hours. The centre of Tropical Cyclone Larry is likely to be
near the Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Flattery and Mackay overnight Sunday.

Very destructive winds, with gusts to 230 km/h, may develop on the coast between
Cape Tribulation and Bowen on Monday morning.

As the centre approaches the coast, sea levels are likely to rise well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas near the
shoreline.

Heavy to flood rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and
Mackay during Sunday night.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 3, for 7 am AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 965 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 17.6 degrees south
longitude 152.1 degrees east
about 680 kilometres east of Cairns
Recent Movement : West-southwest at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 80 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 180 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Flattery and Mackay should continue preparations, and in
particular secure boats and property.

The next advice will be issued at 11am AEST Sunday.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 19/03/2006 12:24

Cat4 will be nasty. A good opportunity for hurricane chasers.

Ak /Cairns return with Qantas $951.31

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sun 19/03/2006 13:25

What chances the depression to the East of Larry will turn into a Cyclone??

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 15:58

cat 4 now
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:54pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Croydon,
Greenvale and Charters Towers.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch extends inland to near the Normanton area.

The warning between Cape Flattery and Cape Tribulation has been cancelled.

At 1 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 4 with central
pressure 950 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.7 south
and longitude 150.4 east, about 460 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to intensify further, and move in a general westerly direction at about
25 to 30 km/h over the next 24 hours. The centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone
Larry is likely to be near the Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Tribulation and Mackay tonight.

Very destructive winds may develop on the coast between Cairns and Bowen on
Monday morning, with maximum wind gusts reaching 280 km/h near the centre of the
cyclone.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible, and be
prepared to follow advice regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so
by the authorities.

Heavy rains are likely to develop near the coast between Cairns and Mackay
Monday morning and this will lead to significant stream and river rises and
flooding of low lying areas.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 1 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 950 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 17.7 degrees south
longitude 150.4 degrees east
about 460 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25/30 kilometres per hour

Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 230 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Tribulation and Mackay and the adjacent inland should
complete preparations before nightfall, especially the protection of boats and
other property.

People over inland areas around Normanton and Croydon should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next advice will be issued at 5 pm AEST Sunday.