Cyclone Larry

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 16:10

the depression behind larry is starting to spin up

Gale warning for Tropical Depression 998hPa issued by Nadi for area within 90
miles of the centre.
Tropical Depression near 15.3S 166.0E to 16S170E moving WSW at 10 knots and
slowly intensifying.
Within warning area of Tropical Depression.
Clockwise winds 25/30 knots increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Seas
rough increasing to very rough on a moderate swell. Areas of rain and scattered
thunderstorms.

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sun 19/03/2006 16:12

It will be interesting to follow over the next 24 hours...

http://www.gorgecreekorchards.com.au/flash.html

http://www.pavardigar.com/flash.html

http://www.perfectoarts.com.au/weather.html

http://michael.bsch.au.com/webcam.html#pic

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 19/03/2006 16:20

spwill wrote:
Cat4 will be nasty. A good opportunity for hurricane chasers.
Ak /Cairns return with Qantas $951.31

I see Geoff Mackley is over there.

http://www.geoffmackley.com

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 19/03/2006 16:30

Guys, i think it to do with la nina sources?

Matt

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 19/03/2006 17:01

How often do tropical cyclones directly affect the eastern coasts of Queensland? Do they ever move down the coast to NSW?

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 19/03/2006 17:11

Well sometimes, but not that often, in la nina periods can be hazard for NSW.

Matt

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Sun 19/03/2006 18:08

Mackay has certainly had its share of direct strikes and near misses, and their presence has typically heralded widespread flooding.
On March 5, 1956, The Daily Mercuryâ€™s front page warned of the coming blow of Cyclone Agnes. On March 6, our page one reported the 570km wide cycloneâ€™s crossing of the coastline overnight, causing damage from Mackay to Cairns and inland almost to the Gulf of Carpentaria.
With barometric pressure dropping to 979Hpa in the early hours of the morning, the cyclone had built from a category two to category three as it crossed the coast. The Daily Mercury reported that the city had been well-prepared for the cyclone, and there had been no loss of life. However, there had been significant damage at the Harbour, with a barge sunk, breakwaters significantly damaged, and a ship wrecked.
The worst hit by Cyclone Agnes were cane farmers, who reported flattened and flooded crops throughout the region. Many said the cyclone had been more damaging than that of the previous year, which had coincidentally crossed the coast north of Mackay on March 7, 1955.
The cyclone brought widespread flooding from Lismore in northern NSW through to Cape York. Cairns had received significant structural damage throughout the township, and in Townsville, a hangar collapse at the RAAF base had destroyed the baseâ€™s two Lincoln Bombers.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 18:47

nearly a cat 5
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 935 hectopascals centred at 190600
UTC near 17.6S 149.7 and moving westwards at 13 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westerly
direction.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 250nm of the low centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm in
the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 150 nm in the southern semicircle increasing
to 250 nm during the next 24 hours. Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in
the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots within 60nm of the centre and
maximum winds reaching 90 knots near the centre. Maximum winds increasing to
about 110 knots near the centre in the next 12 hours. Seas very rough to
phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 191800 UTC near 17.5S 147.0E with maximum winds 110 knots
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.2E with maximum winds near 80 knots over land.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 18:57

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:51pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Croydon,
Greenvale and Charters Towers.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch extends inland to near the Normanton area.

At 4 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, category 4 with central
pressure 935 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.6 south
and longitude 149.7 east, about 390 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to intensify further, and move in a general westerly direction at about
25 km/h over the next 24 hours. The centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry is
likely to be near the Queensland coast early Monday morning.

Damaging winds with gusts to 120 km/h are expected to develop about the
Whitsunday Islands late this afternoon, and extend to the coast between Cape
Tribulation and Mackay tonight.

Very destructive winds may develop on the coast between Cairns and Bowen on
Monday morning, with maximum wind gusts reaching 280 km/h near the centre of the
cyclone.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if
advised by authorities.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 4 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 935 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.6 degrees south
longitude 149.7 degrees east
about 390 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 240 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People between Cape Tribulation and Mackay and the adjacent inland should
complete preparations before nightfall, especially the protection of boats and

other property.

People over inland areas around Normanton and Croydon should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next advice will be issued at 8 pm AEST Sunday.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 19/03/2006 20:00

WOW Larry is now a Cat 4, wind speeds winding up to 280km per hour. Full on hit coming for the Queensland coast in the morning. Glad I'm not there....

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 19/03/2006 20:22

YEP, Cyclone Larry is hitting between Cairns and innsfail later tonight or early tomorrow morning with incredible wind gusts and heavy swell. I saw some rotating swirling clouds around 1000km EES of Larry, that low seem have a great chance to form into tropical cyclone. And it seems heading for SE QLD and NE NSW for our cyclone event, but i not sure where it could hit because it hasn't formed. New cyclone may form NW WA coast tomorrow!

I sorted this out why those cyclones kept forming and intensifiying so fast with real type hurricane. I think it to do with la nina because the graph show it had moved up to +7.5! From 5.2 yesterday, how awesome that was. Something had caused la nina to brew.

Matt Townsend

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 19/03/2006 20:32

Razor wrote:Glad I'm not there....

Wish I was there!

A state of emergency has now been declared!

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Sun 19/03/2006 20:46

The latest satellite image looks very impressive, I'd image the system is being enhanced by the warmer water in the Coral sea / East Coast current.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 19/03/2006 21:56

I saw no mention of Larry on the TV News at 6pm on both channels except that Karen mentioned a bit about it on the weather.
I thought that the lack of mentioning it was interesting as this storm now a Category 4 hurricane could provide as much devastation to the NorthQueensland coast at what Katrina did to New Orleans??
I bet it is headlines tomorrow though.

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:02

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:50pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities
from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Croydon,
Greenvale and Charters Towers.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch extends inland to near the Normanton area.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a very serious threat to life and property
and hourly warnings will now commence.

At 7 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4 with central
pressure 925 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.6 south
and longitude 149.0 east, about 315 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is
expected to intensify further, and move in a general westerly direction at about
25 km/h over the next 24 hours.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with extreme gusts up
to 280 km/hr should cross the coast between INNISFAIL and MISSION BEACH between
7am and 9am MONDAY MORNING. DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to commence along
the coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS early MONDAY MORNING. GALES are
already being experienced along the exposed coast in the warning area.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the
dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to
steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide,
with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending
some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if
advised by authorities.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams
between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 7 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 925 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.6 degrees south
longitude 149.0 degrees east
about 315 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 25 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 280 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People in the path of this VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE should stay calm and remain in
a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive

winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the
cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any
time. Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police or State Emergency
Service personnel.

People over inland areas around Normanton and Croydon should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next warning will be issued at 9 pm AEST Sunday.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:05

Yes John I was awaiting the news too I think it was important the had that on tonight because there are alot of Kiwi's or Mozzies in Queensland so letting NZ families relatives know about it would be a good thing.
Considering the fact it is pretty much almost a category 5 which it probly will be very soon if it does it will match up to Tracy that hit Darwin.

Cheers
Jason.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:10

It was mentioned briefly on TV3 - they showed folk stocking up with supplies for their "emergency kit".

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 19/03/2006 22:21

I musta missed it flicking between channels for news on it.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:32

Gonna be a long night in front of the computer.Larry is heading directly towards Innisfail,I drove through that town a few weeks ago,that town will not survive anything over a category three.Reminded me of Greymouth.
Gee maybe i did pick the right time to holiday back in NZ.

Aussie2005 · Unread post by **Aussie2005** » Sun 19/03/2006 23:06

Larry did not rate a mention on the news I watched in Melbourne this evening, too occupied with the games to both what is happening outside Melbourne.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:49pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Cape Tribulation to Mackay, and extending to inland areas about Croydon, Greenvale and Charters Towers.

A Tropical Cyclone Watch extends inland to near the Normanton area.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry poses a VERY SERIOUS THREAT to life and property in the warning area.

At 9 pm AEST Sunday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4 with central pressure 925 hectopascals, was centred in the Coral Sea near latitude 17.5 south and longitude 148.6 east, about 280 km east of Innisfail. The cyclone is expected to intensify further, and continue to move in a general westerly direction TOWARDS THE COAST at about 25 30 km/h.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with EXTREME GUSTS of approximately 280 km/hr should cross the coast between INNISFAIL and MISSION BEACH between 7am and 9am MONDAY MORNING. DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to commence along the coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS early MONDAY MORNING. GALES are already being experienced along the exposed coast in the warning area.

Coastal residents between Cairns and Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to steadily rise up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas should be prepared to evacuate if advised by authorities.

A preliminary flood warning has been issued for coastal rivers and streams between Innisfail and Mackay.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 4, for 9 pm AEST Sunday
Central Pressure : 925 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
latitude 17.5 degrees south
longitude 148.6 degrees east
about 280 kilometres east of Innisfail
Recent Movement : West at 28 kilometres per hour
Destructive winds : out to 120 kilometres from the centre
Maximum wind gusts : 280 kilometres per hour, intensifying

People in the path of this VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive winds continue. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time. Follow the evacuation advice or directions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People over inland areas around Normanton and Croydon should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

The next warning will be issued at 10 pm AEST Sunday.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 20/03/2006 07:56

CATEGORY 5 NOW

"At 5.30 am AEST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, Category 5 with central
pressure 915 hectopascals, was centred off the north tropical Queensland coast
near latitude 17.5 south and longitude 146.5 east, about 50 km east of
Innisfail. The cyclone is expected to continue to move in a general westerly
direction at 25 km/h and CROSS THE COAST within the next few hours.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY with EXTREME GUSTS of
approximately 290 km/hr should cross the coast near INNISFAIL between 7am and
9am this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are already occurring along the exposed
coast between INGHAM and PORT DOUGLAS. GALES are being experienced along the
remainder of the exposed coast in the warning area. These winds will ease
rapidly later this morning as the cyclone moves inland. "

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 20/03/2006 08:30

Shows up well on the bom radar, eye now about to cross the coast with the center just south of Innisfail so max winds there now.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 20/03/2006 16:30

larry starting to peter out cat 3 now and moving further inland

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 20/03/2006 17:30

Cyclones hate land, hence they weaken out very quickly once they make landfall.

Looks like Cairns and Townsville (Airports) missed this cyclone according to the metars.

Will be interested to see the pictures from Innisfail where the cyclone struck.

Angel · Unread post by **Angel** » Mon 20/03/2006 17:50

So are we gonna get the remanents do you think? if we do, i'm hoping for some awesome cloud formations for me to take pics of