Cyclone Wati

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 19/03/2006 18:10

Looking OK for another cyclone to develop.. maybe it's our turn?

BoM:
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:43pm on Sunday the 19th of March 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone "Larry" is located over the Coral Sea. Please refer to
the current Tropical Cyclone Advice.

At the present time there are no other significant tropical disturbances in the
Coral Sea. However, a low near Vanuatu is likely to move west into the region
during the next 72 hours and has a moderate potential of developing into a
tropical cyclone.

UKMO:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9S 165.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.03.2006 14.9S 165.2E WEAK

12UTC 19.03.2006 15.2S 164.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.03.2006 16.4S 161.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.03.2006 17.1S 158.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.03.2006 18.3S 157.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.03.2006 18.3S 155.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.03.2006 18.8S 153.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.03.2006 18.7S 152.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 23.03.2006 18.6S 151.1E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.03.2006 17.9S 150.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.03.2006 17.6S 149.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.03.2006 16.9S 150.0E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.03.2006 16.7S 149.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

GFS 00z has some pretty wet easterly weather on the way

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sun 19/03/2006 18:18

That be the Low East of Larry... I asked about the chance of that turning into a TC in the Larry thread...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 18:48

somethign to watch looks like it will take a similar path to larry

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 19/03/2006 22:00

What does 95.P Invest mean????

JohnGaul
NZTS ???

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:07

I was wondering the same thing.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:11

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 164.8E TO 18.5S 158.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMÂ
AGERY AT 190530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 164.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.7S 164.4E, APPROXIMATELY
415 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING SUPERPOSED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IND-
ICATES THE AREA IS AN ENVIRONMENT OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AND IN-
CREASED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200800Z.
//

John, Invest means it's being investigated and 95P is the index number the JTWC uses

Here we go http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:14

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7 SOUTH
164.5 EAST AT 190600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 19/03/2006 22:14

....im...sorry, I mean 95.P Invest?????

We all know what a 95.P Invest is, but I'm afraid, 95P. Invest has thrown me???
Could you explain, Foggy

JohnGaul
NZTS?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 19/03/2006 22:21

From the JTWC:
Letter identifiers are assigned to the storm's basin of origin. If a storm passes over a basin boundary, the storm will maintain it's basin of origin letter identifier even though it has entered a new region. For example, storm "Alpha" originates in the Eastern Pacific and is assigned 01E. If it makes its way into the Central Pacific it will still maintain its number and name designation even though it is seen under the Central Pacific header.
The storm number can be an eighty series (80-89), ninety series (90-99), or a number between 1 and 50. Storms seen with a number between 80 and 89 are usually used for testing purposes only. Storms with numbers between 90 and 99 are areas that forecasters use to monitor suspect regions typically with disorganized large-scale convection that has a chance to develop into a more organized system such as a tropical depression. Storms with numbers between 1 and 50 are/were storms that reached tropical storm strength or higher.
The naming convention after the number/basin pair can be called INVEST, NONAME, or assigned name. All storms will start with an INVEST name. When the system becomes a tropical storm this name will change to either NONAME or assigned name. NONAME is assigned to storms which do not have an official assigned name yet. Assigned names are given to tropical storms according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Typically, storms that form in the Indian Ocean north of the equator will have NONAME. There are a few occasions where a tropical storm name will have an INVEST or a ONE, TWO,... following the number/basin pair. This name is only temporary and typically lasts for only a couple of hours. This is caused by the timing of the position updates generated by the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) system and when forecasters determine that the system has become a tropical storm.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 19/03/2006 22:26

Thanks.
I couldn't lodge onto your attachment.

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 20/03/2006 02:30

cyclone wati is born

Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [995hPa] was located near 15.9 South
163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving west-southwest 13 knots. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at 35 knots
increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33
knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors from northwest through
north to east and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

LLCC now underneath the developing CDO. Overall organisation steadily
improving. Deep convection about central area steadily increased and
cooled past 12 hours. Outflow good to north but still restricted
elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .6, yielding
DT=3.0. MET and PT agree at 3.0. Thus, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. Wati lies
just to the north of the 250 hPa ridge axis. Vertical wind shear
around 15 to 25 knots but anticipated to decrease gradually. SST
around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is beeing steered west-southwest by a deep
mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the
south. Consensus of available global models agree on steady
west-southwest track with slight, further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 200000 UTC near 16.7S 160.7E mov WSW 13kt with 45kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 201200 UTC near 17.9S 158.0E mov WSW 13kt with 50kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 210000 UTC near 18.8S 156.0E mov WSW 12kt with 60kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.0S 154.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt
close to centre.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 20/03/2006 09:45

Storm Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1912 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati [987hPa] centre was located near 16.7 South 161.7 East at
191800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 16.7S 161.7E at 191800 UTC. Cyclone
moving west-southwest at 16 knots. Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre increasing to 55 knots in
the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector
from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 17.9S 159.3E at 200600 UTC
and near 18.4S 157.1E at 201800 UTC.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 20/03/2006 16:32

Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [985hPa] was located near 17.0 South
160.0 East at 200000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery
with animation and 2053Z SSMIS pass. Cyclone moving west 17 knots.
Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at 50 knots increasing to 55 knots in the next 6 to 12
hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre, winds
over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector from northwest
through east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Cloud tops warmed and decreased in areal coverage since early morning
but are reinvigorating after midday. Outflow remains good in northern
semicircle but still restricted elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on
log10 spiral wrap of .8 yields DT=MET=PT=3.5. FT based on DT:
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24hrs. Vertical wind shear is around 10 to 20 knots and
Wati is expected to remain in a moderately sheared environment. SST
around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is being steered westwards by a deep mean
easterly flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the south.
Consensus of available global models agree on a steady westwards
track with slight intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 201200 UTC near 17.5S 157.3E mov W 13kt with 55kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 210000 UTC near 17.7S 155.5E mov W 10kt with 60kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 18.0S 154.2E mov WSW 08kt with 65kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 220000 UTC near 18.4S 152.7E mov WSW 08kt with 65kt
close to centre.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 20/03/2006 19:19

Still waiting for Cyclone STIG to be born or Hurricane Stig, whatever...

JohnGaul
NZTS

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 20/03/2006 20:51

I don't agree with that tracking of Wati anymore cause if u look on weatherzone national satetille, it seems heading further SW'ly and a bit towards south to Mackay or a bit south i hope so. There is no outflow band on westside of Wati!!! The gust front structure seems like mesocyclone!!!! On other side of it seems like Halley Comet tail

La nina starts all this happens!!!!

Matt

GraemeWi · Unread post by **GraemeWi** » Mon 20/03/2006 21:27

Matt Townsend wrote:La nina starts all this happens!!!!

Although the SOI is > 0 at the moment, I believe statistically it's too early to say that La NiÃ±a is active. Currently it's nowhere near as active as say 1974 for example:

Code: Select all

August 1973 to May 1974
12.3	13.5	9.7	31.6	16.9   20.8	16.2	20.3 	11.1	10.7

August 2005 to Current
-6.9	3.9	10.9	-2.7	0.6    12.7	 0.1

Cheers,

G

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 20/03/2006 23:17

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN #1
For 17:00 EST on Monday the 20th of March 2006

At 5pm EST Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 980 hPa, is
located over the far eastern Coral Sea.

Wati is currently at 17.2 degrees south, 159.1 degrees east, which is about
1,400 km east of Cairns.

Wati currently poses no threat to the Queensland coast and is not influencing
Queensland's weather. The cyclone is expected to move in a general westerly
direction over the next day or so and be in the central Coral Sea by Wednesday.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 21/03/2006 14:21

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1000 EST on Tuesday the 21st of March 2006

At 10am EST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Wati, category 2 with central pressure 975
hPa, was located about 750km east northeast of Mackay. It is moving towards the
west at 20 km per hour and should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours.

Wati is expected to maintain this track until Wednesday morning when it will
slow down and remain in offshore waters for the rest of the week. This may
produce gale force winds off the coast between Bowen and Fraser Island. Large
seas will develop along the southern coast during the week.

Next bulletin will be issued at 5pm today.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 21/03/2006 15:01

something to watch if wati curves to the SE towards New Zealand

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 21/03/2006 15:18

squid wrote:something to watch if wati curves to the SE towards New Zealand

Wati's structure was never favourable.. may end up down here has a rain-bearing depression

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Tue 21/03/2006 17:08

I sorry guys, the twin high pressures coming into Tasman Sea which makes Wati to direct hit to coastal area including here and north of here. It makes NZL weather dyier again!!!

Matt

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Tue 21/03/2006 17:57

Weatherzone has the following:

Cyclone Wati lurking in the Coral Sea
Tom Saunders, Tue 16:30 EDT

Tropical Cyclone Wati, a category 2 system at 4pm Tuesday, will linger dangerously close to the QLD coast during the next few days. Wati approached the coast rapidly on Monday but slowed on Tuesday and by 10am was still 750 km east of Mackay. Wati will intensify further on Wednesday but computer models disagree on her future path. She is most likely to slow down further and linger a few hundred km off the coast for the rest of the week. She may eventually head southeast towards New Zealand or gradually weaken and make extratropical transition in the Coral Sea. A tight pressure gradient between Wati and a strong high near TAS is generating gale force winds and large swell along the QLD coast.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 22/03/2006 08:13

Nothing coming this way...in the paper today:
Little threat from Wati

22.03.06 8.00am

Tropical Cyclone Wati is unlikely to have much effect on New Zealand.

The category two cyclone is expected to turn away from Australia and may move towards New Zealand.

But MetService forecaster Steve Ready said it was moving slowly and did not pose a threat. "There's nothing imminent and it's days away if it is to have any effect at all."

Yesterday Wati was about 750km off Australia and moving at less than 20km/h.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 22/03/2006 10:12

I see NOGAPS has the reminant for Wati forming a deep low in the central tasman sea in a few days time. Watch that space...who is right? Metservice or NOGAPS?

You guys who've been watching longer, how good is NOGAPS?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 22/03/2006 10:25

Razor wrote:I see NOGAPS has the reminant for Wati forming a deep low in the central tasman sea in a few days time. Watch that space...who is right? Metservice or NOGAPS?

You guys who've been watching longer, how good is NOGAPS?

MetService would be using the NGP model, like all the others..

It's the UKMO model which looks interesting for New Zealand

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATI ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9S 154.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 21.03.2006 17.9S 154.2E WEAK

00UTC 22.03.2006 18.1S 153.3E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.03.2006 18.5S 153.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.03.2006 18.8S 154.4E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.03.2006 19.0S 155.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.03.2006 20.7S 156.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.03.2006 22.2S 158.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 25.03.2006 24.6S 160.6E MODERATE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL

12UTC 25.03.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL

But then the guidance puts Wati into Farewell Spit.

NOGAPS isn't really good for it's development of lows, but it's tracking of cyclones etc can be pretty accurate

The current consensus of all the global models is that it will turn SOUTH and weaken.