The Next Trough
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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The Next Trough
ECMWF earlier on had a sort of a "Drewery DsB side rod" weather system moving over the seas to the south of the country. This being quite in contast to the earlier weather patterns of March.
Apart from reported thunderstorm activity over Westland today, I don't think this system to be relatively active or was.
However, the next trough seems to have the same scenario, rain on the west Coast, some thunderstorms maybe and fine boring weather in eastern areas..
Today, i thought a tornado may of been reported , but nothing., well so far reported.
Barometer pressures are going to be low ...but with fine weather.
Monday next week so far has a potential of 1 but keep your fingers and arse crossed
JohnGaul
NZTS
Apart from reported thunderstorm activity over Westland today, I don't think this system to be relatively active or was.
However, the next trough seems to have the same scenario, rain on the west Coast, some thunderstorms maybe and fine boring weather in eastern areas..
Today, i thought a tornado may of been reported , but nothing., well so far reported.
Barometer pressures are going to be low ...but with fine weather.
Monday next week so far has a potential of 1 but keep your fingers and arse crossed
JohnGaul
NZTS
- Willoughby
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Fattening jetstream on the way for the upper North island.. tonight until Friday evening.. that should mean strong to gale westerlies in store for Auckland come Friday (gusts to 100km/h).. there may be a few land wind warnings put out there. But hopefully not like the warnings they put out spring last year!
Heavy rain possible for Christchurch Friday morning.. with a gale northwest change... heavy rain also developing into the evening for Coastal Otago with a southwesterly change.
Possible thunder for Taranaki tomorrow afternoon with the intrusion of a pocket of cooler upper-air
Westport set to get some big thundery downpours
Edit, looking very ripe for troughy tasman thunderstorms for the upper North Monday But of course with the baro getting very low.. anything can happen before that (Bring on a good squall line!)
Heavy rain possible for Christchurch Friday morning.. with a gale northwest change... heavy rain also developing into the evening for Coastal Otago with a southwesterly change.
Possible thunder for Taranaki tomorrow afternoon with the intrusion of a pocket of cooler upper-air
Westport set to get some big thundery downpours
Edit, looking very ripe for troughy tasman thunderstorms for the upper North Monday But of course with the baro getting very low.. anything can happen before that (Bring on a good squall line!)
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Re: The Next Trough
[quote="NZ Thunderstorm Soc"]
Monday next week so far has a potential of 1 but keep your fingers and arse crossed
quote]
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?
Monday next week so far has a potential of 1 but keep your fingers and arse crossed
quote]
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?
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The NE winds should start strenthining tomorrow here according to news weather 55kmh so a blustery day ahead.
But friday should be a typical windstorm day big gales followed by scatterd rain wudnt surprise me if a thunderstorm spills over into south canty from the Alps and maybe even gusts may reach 130kmh+ for inland areas and BP.
Cheers
Jason.
But friday should be a typical windstorm day big gales followed by scatterd rain wudnt surprise me if a thunderstorm spills over into south canty from the Alps and maybe even gusts may reach 130kmh+ for inland areas and BP.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Storms possibly coming from the ones I've experienced in northern NSW.Edit, looking very ripe for troughy tasman thunderstorms for the upper North Monday Very Happy
I witnessed spectacular activity from Byron Bay yesterday afternoon. A cb built up well to the west in afternoon, and beaceme much bigger by about 3-4pm. I was walking around the heads when I started to see massive bolts of lightning to the west, plus some sheet lightning. The storm moved closer as I quickly went back to where I was staying - I got there 10 minutes before the heavens open! (about 5pm) Some strikes were rather close by then. After an hour or so, the rain was lighter, and cleared in another hour or so, but there was still an amazing lightshow offshore. Another thunderstorm with heavy rain hit just before dawn, clearing up but about 10am.
There was also a short downpour in Nimbin about 3.45 this afternoon, but I didn't notice any thunder or lightning. (no I wasn't wasted on any substances)
[/quote]
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http://www.loganvillageweather.com/lightning/index.php
that web site you could use to track the lightning
sounds like some exciting weather
you could see the cb tops on the sat image alright!
that web site you could use to track the lightning
sounds like some exciting weather
you could see the cb tops on the sat image alright!
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That Byron Bay cell had 120km/hr winds, large hail size up to golf balls and 45mm of rain in 23mins. I had 4 storms so far this outbreak for 2 days so far, but more storms coming from the west. It seems forming into a squall line! But no severe storm warning out yet, i hope cause of i am alone here atm 50knots+ winds recorded here last night and 46mm of rain in two days so far (still in current for my rain guage), i hope to brake April daily average rainfall
Matt
Matt
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Re: The Next Trough
1 = not likely but the potential is thereAndrew Massie wrote:
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately
JohnGaul
NZTS
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Re: The Next Trough
Thanks Mate!NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:1 = not likely but the potential is thereAndrew Massie wrote:
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately
JohnGaul
NZTS
Looking forward to some 5s!
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Re: The Next Trough
1 = NO
2 = MIGHT
3 = MAYBE
4 = COULD
5 = KINETIC
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?[/quote]
1 = not likely but the potential is there
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately
JohnGaul
NZTS[/quote]
2 = MIGHT
3 = MAYBE
4 = COULD
5 = KINETIC
Hey John, how does your Potential Scale work again?[/quote]
1 = not likely but the potential is there
2 = quite probable
3 = quite on the cards
4 = yes, looks likely
5 = definately
JohnGaul
NZTS[/quote]
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Yes, that front looks amazing.. not many discharges at the moment from those storms tich experienced.
Here's another good link:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_weather_map.jpg
hmmmmmm.. haven't had a thundery front in a while have we?
On the satellite it looks like a very rare front.. must be embedded in a very cool-cored system
Here's another good link:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_weather_map.jpg
hmmmmmm.. haven't had a thundery front in a while have we?
On the satellite it looks like a very rare front.. must be embedded in a very cool-cored system
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the low center will eventualy cross central NZ...and there could be come real thundery weather for the NI coming!
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Thu 06/04/2006 15:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Hey guys, i got storm reports from Tuesday night!
http://www.freewebs.com/mattweather/4th ... ercell.htm
any comments on this?
Matt
http://www.freewebs.com/mattweather/4th ... ercell.htm
any comments on this?
Matt