NI Low #2... Thundery and Convective we hope!

uretiti · Unread post by **uretiti** » Sat 29/04/2006 14:24

Well can tell you that is fine and sunny up in my part of the north now with little to no wind...........very weird

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 29/04/2006 14:40

some severe convection may be about to occur somewhere in the upper north soon

uretiti · Unread post by **uretiti** » Sat 29/04/2006 14:46

Cameo1 wrote:some severe convection may be about to occur somewhere in the upper north soon

just looked on the storm tracker and there is heap of activity going on up here, but can't say i've seen or heard it ???.....still nice n sunny

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 29/04/2006 14:50

uretiti wrote:
Cameo1 wrote:some severe convection may be about to occur somewhere in the upper north soon
just looked on the storm tracker and there is heap of activity going on up here, but can't say i've seen or heard it ???.....still nice n sunny

Hi, I think if it's sunny and humid with wispy high cloud(cold aloft) you might have a chance of some thunder later on.

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 29/04/2006 14:53

If the sun came out in Auckland and pushed the temp up a bit I think we would have a storm on our hands. Its quite cold here now.

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 29/04/2006 15:37

Whats going on guys? It seems that trough has backed up now.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 29/04/2006 15:59

Whats going on guys?

Most of the thunderstorm activity is rolling over the top of Northland. But there is one thunderstorm over central Northland. Also looks to be a weak tstorm in the BOP.

if any chase was to happen today, would have to head up into northland (way into northland) away from this warm front/trough muck here in the auckland area!

Yes, this is going to be our coldest day of the year so far. A max temp of just 16C.

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 29/04/2006 16:11

NZstorm wrote:
Whats going on guys?
Most of the thunderstorm activity is rolling over the top of Northland. But there is one thunderstorm over central Northland. Also looks to be a weak tstorm in the BOP.

if any chase was to happen today, would have to head up into northland (way into northland) away from this warm front/trough muck here in the auckland area!
Yes, this is going to be our coldest day of the year so far. A max temp of just 16C.

Do you think Auk will get a storm today?

It seems strange that metservice can forcast for a moderate risk of Severe thunderstorms, yet the weather can't even squeeze out a normal thunderstorm. I think Auckland has too many variables for them to accurately forcast for any type of thunderstorm, they really shouldn't bother saying moderate risk or higher in Auk it should be kept at low, (unless it was 30C or something exceptional)!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 29/04/2006 16:29

Do you think Auk will get a storm today?

I think its all over for Auckland now. Our best chance for thunderstorms was with that frontal trough this morning. That front is south of us over Waikato into the Bay of Plenty now. I think there is a risk of further thunderstorms in the Coromandal/BOP until tomorrow morning.

Next chance for some interesting weather for AK is mid week as another low moves in from the Tasman.

Did anybody else see Erik Brenstrum from Met Service on Closeup TV1 last night. He was essentially saying that eastern areas can expect above average rainfall for the next 10 years or so, West Coast below average.
Gisborne in particular will enjoy high rainfall, Canterbury will have above average rainfall too.

Angel · Unread post by **Angel** » Sat 29/04/2006 16:34

[quote="tgsnoopy]Roll of film? What's that? Is that some new kind of memory stick? How many Gigabytes or thousands of photo's does it hold?

[/quote]

Haha smarty pants.
I'm learning photography at polytech, so I thought i'd use my roll of film on the weather.. will make for interesting pictures when I get them developed.

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Sat 29/04/2006 16:50

Did anybody else see Erik Brenstrum from Met Service on Closeup TV1 last night. He was essentially saying that eastern areas can expect above average rainfall for the next 10 years or so, West Coast below average.
Gisborne in particular will enjoy high rainfall, Canterbury will have above average rainfall too.

NZStorm, what was the reason that Erik gave for this occurring?

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 29/04/2006 16:52

NZstorm wrote:
Do you think Auk will get a storm today?
I think its all over for Auckland now. Our best chance for thunderstorms was with that frontal trough this morning. That front is south of us over Waikato into the Bay of Plenty now. I think there is a risk of further thunderstorms in the Coromandal/BOP until tomorrow morning.

Next chance for some interesting weather for AK is mid week as another low moves in from the Tasman.

Did anybody else see Erik Brenstrum from Met Service on Closeup TV1 last night. He was essentially saying that eastern areas can expect above average rainfall for the next 10 years or so, West Coast below average.
Gisborne in particular will enjoy high rainfall, Canterbury will have above average rainfall too.

Yea I saw him. He said rather than the usual south westerlies we will see more easterly weather events. I don't know if thats La Nana related.
It also heard him say that it snowed in Auckland in 1939

LOL

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:03

Did anybody else see Erik Brenstrum from Met Service on Closeup TV1 last night. He was essentially saying that eastern areas can expect above average rainfall for the next 10 years or so, West Coast below average.
Gisborne in particular will enjoy high rainfall, Canterbury will have above average rainfall too.[/quote]

Yes NZstorm I seen that more heavy rain expected in the east of both islands this winter this gets me thinking if thats the case it puts the picture of deep lows to the east with cold E-SE winds which in turn could be good for heavy snowfalls too.

Infact possibly the heaviest snow would fall in such situations I mean look at Central Otago the other day with that low and our snow last year on sept 19 was caused by a developed low under a more dominant SE winflow.
When it rains from the north or east here its usually heavy so snow could also do the same in winter now we jst have to wait and see.
Maybe we will have a repeat of Germanys winter

lots of record breaking snowfalls.

dare i mention it too early

dont worry we will save you north islanders some snow to go with your beers this winter

Cheers
Jason.

agingaquarian · Unread post by **agingaquarian** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:08

I don't know about snow in Auckland in 1939. But I definitely saw sleet in Queen Street in 1974 or 5.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:18

NZStorm, what was the reason that Erik gave for this occurring?

Something to do with the hemispheric pattern. Forgot the exact jargon he used. But the period 1977 to 2000 was prone to El Nino events. That pattern has changed, making la Nina events more possible now.

It also heard him say that it snowed in Auckland in 1939 LOL

Yes, and a heavy snowfall over SE hills of Auckland. Metroplitian Auckland got a light coating. I've been into the Library and read the NZ Herald account with lots of photos.

lows to the east with cold E-SE winds which in turn could be good for heavy snowfalls too.

That was my thought Jason. Wetter winter weather in the east of the SI means more snow for you guys although means temps are expected to be above normal.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:37

A friend rang me a little while ago and said the Coromandel is getting clobbered again. More flooding between Tairua and Whiritoa!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:38

Pacific decadal oscillation is the jargon you are looking for. An interesting little beastie. Last time we were in this phase of thePDO was in the 70s when there were some very wet years in both islands, the mid-70s especially wet in Christchurch, I think the later 70s also very wet in the east of the North Island (RWood?). Then it all switched around in the 80s and drought was the order of the day. However, its worth noting that droughts did occur in Canty in the 70s, and wet years in the 80s. The PDO is not an on/off switch for wet/dry, its one of many influences, not all of which may work together.

As for this year, I think everyone agrees a significant El Nino is well overdue, and there are some signs in the Pacific, but nothing seems to be moving yet, and the models are not expecting much either. Is this the PDO exerting its influence perhaps?

And one final thought - a winter with more easterlies is not always wet. Oftentimes those easterlies can be due to blocking anticyclones, which keep the rain away from Canterbury, but keep the low cloud trucking in (I can hear the groans from John already!).

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:50

TonyT wrote: And one final thought - a winter with more easterlies is not always wet. Oftentimes those easterlies can be due to blocking anticyclones, which keep the rain away from Canterbury, but keep the low cloud trucking in (I can hear the groans from John already!).

Would they keep average temps down??

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 29/04/2006 17:52

Dont mind as long as it keeps the SW away

03Stormchaser wrote:
TonyT wrote: And one final thought - a winter with more easterlies is not always wet. Oftentimes those easterlies can be due to blocking anticyclones, which keep the rain away from Canterbury, but keep the low cloud trucking in (I can hear the groans from John already!).
Would they keep average temps down??

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 29/04/2006 18:05

NZstorm wrote: Did anybody else see Erik Brenstrum from Met Service on Closeup TV1 last night. He was essentially saying that eastern areas can expect above average rainfall for the next 10 years or so, West Coast below average.
Gisborne in particular will enjoy high rainfall, Canterbury will have above average rainfall too.

Well that totally contradicts what NIWA (No Idea What's Ahead) said at the Climate Change conference last month!

Persistant light rain today and cool. Winter is near..

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 29/04/2006 18:36

Wetter winter weather in the east of the SI means more snow for you guys although means temps are expected to be above normal.

Pattern has been going since year 2000 and we seem to be getting less snow.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 29/04/2006 19:27

This posting is getting too long but I must say that it RAINED here today, not drizzled.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Sat 29/04/2006 20:22

yes, great program that on TV last night

there was thudnerstorms in auckland today, you just had to be up early

some great boil ups occured over the waitaks around 5pm to 6pm 2 nite, all in a row, leaving behind old dead CB tops, like a haiwii geothermal hotspot!

ps, i like that acronym foggy, thats funny

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 29/04/2006 20:46

[quote="NZ Thunderstorm Soc"]This posting is getting too long but I must say that it RAINED here today, not drizzled.

Yeh it was a mix of light rain and drizzle

.
I see MS forecast drizzle for tues,wed

should be cloudy on tuesday wit rain at night and rain easing to showers on Wednesday.

I know I should be forecasting well I do on my website.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 29/04/2006 20:53

Well, Lets continue the longentivity of this post, as more thunderstorms are due to the northern NI well into next week.

...ummm.. Ive forgetton what I was going to say ????

um...

On yes..
I CAN'T stand that Susan Wood

..but she asked Eric Brenstrum, MetServices chief Forecaster, interesting questions, some similar to my interview on Thursday. He is in the belief of a La Nina regime, despite of nothing much definite happening as far as La Nina/El Nino goes. To even up, there has to be more La Ninas?? Even under neutrality, there is a possibily of a La Nina tendancy.
Evidence of this is the severe rain events we have had in both Eatern Otago and the Coromandel ??

JohnGaul
NZTS