Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Tue 02/05/2006 09:56

you should start to see some buildups happening about lunchtime and then wait for the afternoon deluge.

i think the problem we had yesterday was a lack of moisture, if we can get more of that today then we could be in.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 02/05/2006 10:38

Predicted rain and storms appears to be extremely wide of the mark for the time being.

Thunder risk is with the Front this Evening.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 02/05/2006 12:37

spwill wrote:
Predicted rain and storms appears to be extremely wide of the mark for the time being.

Thunder risk is with the Front this Evening.

I'm sceptical

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Tue 02/05/2006 14:09

theres some good storms in the tazzie bunch at the mo, and rickys tracker has picked up a few off northland.

the astrogenic tracker is also agreeing with this....

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 02/05/2006 14:23

A cool foggy, but now hazy day here. The cumulus are growing solidly thanks to the added moisture.

Some nice Cb's out there west of Northland but this warm front is highly unorganised so I wonder how much rain will be widespread tonight.

Storm steer is northerly, and shear looks good. Thunderstorms may again be running into the East Auckland suburbs later tonight.

Note the work 'risk' Razor

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 02/05/2006 14:32

Its no wonder the average person on the street gets so sceptical about the metservice and the like. The amount of times "thunderstorms" have been mentioned in the forecasts for days which have not eventuated is quite large this year.

Perhaps the method of delivering weather forecasts to the populace needs to be reviewed, so there is a better understanding of the uncertainties of 'risk'.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 02/05/2006 15:12

you have to be within 10km(?) or less of a lightning strike to be able to hear it inside a building
so even if there was a thunderstorm where it was forecasted, only people in a certain radius from that thunderstorm would even know there was thunder and lightning

there are thunderstorms around today, you can see them on the lightning tracker and on the sat image
they are moving down on the bay of islands at the moment, and they are out to the west of the NI at the moment too

and they are moving towards the greater auckland area

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 02/05/2006 15:31

Some Cj build now looking south with Lenticular cloud above and away

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 02/05/2006 15:37

Have had some towering Cu around Auckland today as well.

Current location of TS to our NW.

http://flash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_weather_map.jpg

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 02/05/2006 15:40

spwill wrote: Current location of TS to our NW.

http://flash.ess.washington.edu/L_plot_weather_map.jpg

Just came into rain radar zone.. it's lookin good for western areas!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 02/05/2006 15:56

Good development on the front just at the moment.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 02/05/2006 16:57

things hotting up for lightning strikes just west of northland now
heading towards the auckland area
should be here on dark
bring it on!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 02/05/2006 18:38

Interesting skies around Christchurch today but nothing much to photograph.
Looking really heavy especially in the afternoon when the weak convergence when through around 12:30pm.
Not much wind.
JohnGaul
NZTS

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 02/05/2006 19:16

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Interesting skies around Christchurch today but nothing much to photograph.
Looking really heavy especially in the afternoon when the weak convergence when through around 12:30pm.
Not much wind.
JohnGaul
NZTS

Was interesting, had a decent heavyish shower come thru around 12.15pm. My home rain gauge didnt record anything other than a few spits, and I like a mere 2 minutes away!! So was very localised.

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Tue 02/05/2006 19:33

....

metservice

.....lol....you guys are funny....lol

.....

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Tue 02/05/2006 20:07

i'm waiting patiently for something to happen. Any sign of activity anywhere?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 02/05/2006 20:21

Satellite shows some strong thunderstorms have developed over the ocean area east of Northland (they are moving away).

I'm guessing there will be patchy heavy rain from the front later this evening for Auckland with a low risk of a thunderstorm.

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Tue 02/05/2006 20:24

just heard my first thunder. will now go upstairs and watch with excitement

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Tue 02/05/2006 20:46

yep, lightning observed to the north

uretiti · Unread post by **uretiti** » Tue 02/05/2006 20:59

Just to let you know, it rained reasonably heavy here at around 5.30ish then just light showers, but then lots of lightning out to the east of us, and now (nearly 9pm) is raining quite heavy, not sure which way its going seems to be all over the place !!
will let u all know if it starts getting exciting..........

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Tue 02/05/2006 21:14

first loud crack of thunder here in about a decade

lol

Manukau heads obs · Tue 02/05/2006 21:20

yup
i saw the flash out the window and heard it here too, so it must have been a beauty!

i wonder if there will be more

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Tue 02/05/2006 21:23

Manukau heads observer wrote:yup
i saw the flash out the window and heard it here too, so it must have been a beauty!
i wonder if there will be more

lol Yea, don't know what happened to the lightning tracker though, nothing has shown up yet....strange

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Tue 02/05/2006 21:27

I can now see a wall of rain and bubbling cumulus coming towards me quite rapidly from the north. The strike probably originated from in there, can't wait. Its moving southwards aprox.

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Tue 02/05/2006 21:32

Ooh all yea of little faith!

Paul

NZ Weather Forum

Low #3, yet more Thunderstorms

Update from the North