May prognosis

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 12/05/2006 11:36

This is what NIWA predicted the week before last:

In the short term, we expect settled conditions during the first half of May with anticyclones mostly dominant. In the second half of May a return to unsettled patterns is predicted, with depressions possibly affecting the North Island. This phase should ease early in June with a settled period in the middle of June, ahead of more storminess at the end of June and through the first half of July.

I heard someone refer to the acronym somewhere here the other day as No Idea What's Ahead

How could they be so wrong so quickly this season?

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 12/05/2006 12:00

Razor wrote:This is what NIWA predicted the week before last:...How could they be so wrong so quickly this season?

I'm just a rank amateur, yet people ask me for forecasts all the time just because I run a few weather stations, so I always say "how the hell would I know?"...weather prediction would have to be one of the hardest things ever. I reckon the Met Service and NIWA would prevent a lot of the criticism of themselves if they could bring themselves to be a little (or a lot) more conservative in their self-estimation, if you get my meaning.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 12/05/2006 12:07

Razor wrote:This is what NIWA predicted the week before last:

In the short term, we expect settled conditions during the first half of May with anticyclones mostly dominant. In the second half of May a return to unsettled patterns is predicted, with depressions possibly affecting the North Island. This phase should ease early in June with a settled period in the middle of June, ahead of more storminess at the end of June and through the first half of July.

I heard someone refer to the acronym somewhere here the other day as No Idea What's Ahead

How could they be so wrong so quickly this season?

Actually thats the Blue Skies' prediction I wrote last week! Its nothing to do with NIWA. At the time some of the data we work off was suggesting more anticyclones through early May. That had been the case with our April issue as well. These type of correlations arent totally reliable. In this case it looks as if the unsettled conditions we were antiicipating for the second half of the month are coming through from about now. Which is only a week or so ahead of schedule. In the context of trying to make a three month prediction I'd consider that quite good (although clearly we need to wait and see how the remaining two and a half months pans out!). I'm not aware that NIWA attempt to tie down changeability in that way at all.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 12/05/2006 12:08

Gary Roberts wrote:
Razor wrote:This is what NIWA predicted the week before last:...How could they be so wrong so quickly this season?
I'm just a rank amateur, yet people ask me for forecasts all the time just because I run a few weather stations, so I always say "how the hell would I know?"...weather prediction would have to be one of the hardest things ever. I reckon the Met Service and NIWA would prevent a lot of the criticism of themselves if they could bring themselves to be a little (or a lot) more conservative in their self-estimation, if you get my meaning.

You dont win prizes for predicting "average" all the time Gary, even if in the long term you will look right.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 12/05/2006 12:17

TonyT wrote:You dont win prizes for predicting "average" all the time Gary, even if in the long term you will look right.

I'm not saying they should timidly refuse to make predictions...just that they should acknowledge that it's an educated guess, and based upon the data and models they have...and not dismiss out-of-hand any who disagree with their predictions and forecasts. Also, when they get it wrong, they should point out that it was just an educated guess based uponblahblah, and not attempt to pretend that they somehow got it right (and change the forecast on their website to make it seem as if they were right all along).

Professional weatherologists have PhDs, have drilled holes in Antarctica, and flown high-altitude missions, and done all sorts of cool and interesting things, so nobody, least of all myself, disputes their dedication, training, experince, intellect, or whatever...but they have to be more open and honest about the nature and all-but-unpredicatability of their line of work. Forecasting the weather is fiendishly difficult, and to be honest I usually expect forecasts to be wrong. When gusy pretend that they're never wrong, and retro their results to make inaccurate predictions appear right I get a mite cranky. Hell, I'd be fired if I pulled the same stuff in my own line of work.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 12/05/2006 12:26

We put the following on the bottom of all the seasonal outlooks we send out:

"Please note that this outlook is based on statistical relationships derived from climatic records and supported by understanding of broadscale atmospheric processes. Since an element of randomness is an essential part of the earths climate system the predictions expressed here should be used with caution and due acknowledgment of their sometimes limited accuracy."

But, unfortunately, the Fencepost people decide to leave it off when they put the predictions up on their site.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 12/05/2006 13:15

Aha a can of worms opens...

It is good to see mother nature having a laugh at it all every now and then No offence is intented at individuals here Tony... good on you for sticking your neck out and good on you for fessing up

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 12/05/2006 17:12

Razor wrote:Aha a can of worms opens...

It is good to see mother nature having a laugh at it all every now and then No offence is intented at individuals here Tony... good on you for sticking your neck out and good on you for fessing up

About NIWA's seasonal prediction, you are in no position whatever to say they're wrong at all - because they predict an average over 3 months - and that period is only 12 days old so far. Tony's forecasts are more adventurous, so naturally carry more risk.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 12/05/2006 18:28

RWood wrote:About NIWA's seasonal prediction, you are in no position whatever to say they're wrong at all - because they predict an average over 3 months - and that period is only 12 days old so far. Tony's forecasts are more adventurous, so naturally carry more risk.

I'm never wrong. That's because I'm smarter than all of you.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Fri 12/05/2006 18:44

Maybe they just have the predictions for May round the wrong way

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 12/05/2006 18:54

As far as Auckland is concerned winter always lasts at least 6 months every year even if not traditionally cold but always the wet and or winds,we never missed winter be it from May to November or June to December

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 13/05/2006 08:35

Michael, your best Postings are way over on weather blogs where we dont have to read them.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 13/05/2006 08:44

Well you will be able to enjoy the sunshine when you go away to the States,some of us are stuck with what weve got

Well I am not telling you every time a squall comes through and writing every post 5x a day telling you our winds are at Gale Force from the SW and horizontal rain and writing in Font 24 in bold with swearing with 100 violins on my signature

spwill wrote:Michael, your best Postings are way over on weather blogs where we dont have to read them.

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Sat 13/05/2006 11:06

I love reading Michael's posts, dont stop, u have me LMAO

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 13/05/2006 12:09

Don't worry... he will never stop.

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Sat 13/05/2006 12:25

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 13/05/2006 15:55

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Don't worry... he will never stop.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 13/05/2006 20:29

Gary Roberts wrote:
Foggy Hamilton wrote:Don't worry... he will never stop.

Good. I like michael's postings too

...back to the origional topic of this posting. I don't think that any predictions were all that wrong, both NIWA and Blue Skies.
Well down here in Canterbury??
Auckland or the rest of the cuntry in general, maybe?

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZ Weather Forum

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