Cameo1 wrote:That was a major turn around for metservice. What happened to the forcast north Island rain? Whats with the severe thunderstorms in Northland forcast now?
funny that - I cant hear and thunderstorms from where i'm sitting.. although we've had some pretty heavy showers. Metservice lie anyway.
Humid northerly developing with this north Tasman low.. should see dewpoints up to 17-18c with temps to 21c in Northland later
That'd be good for thunderstorms over some land!
Yea the radio dudes just said there will be thunder and lightning at some point today.. pity i dont have my flash digicam anymore that i loaned out from polytech
Cameo1 wrote:Metservice says it may extend the rain warning to Auckland
Yes indeed! That forecast has changed, a severe weather watch in place now for tomorrow. Looking outside I won't be surprised to see it here earlier than that
Still curious to know what the rainfall record for may is round here if anyone has it to hand...
Wasn't it this time last year the big tauranga flood hit?
What an event coming up at the end of the week looks like heavy rain for much of northern south island and by atleast sunday east coast areas could see gales too.
MSLP maps picking this one out nicly so far http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... egion=nzsi
Cheers
Jason.
Surprised it is the monsoon season now,the 18 May was the floods
Razor wrote:
Cameo1 wrote:Metservice says it may extend the rain warning to Auckland
Yes indeed! That forecast has changed, a severe weather watch in place now for tomorrow. Looking outside I won't be surprised to see it here earlier than that
Still curious to know what the rainfall record for may is round here if anyone has it to hand...
Wasn't it this time last year the big tauranga flood hit?
models still going for an intense and complex depression there will be some big falls around all the ingredents are there and they are coming together for thoses that love this kind of stuff enjoy
Razor wrote:
Still curious to know what the rainfall record for may is round here if anyone has it to hand...
Still a long way out.. but between the years 1853-1980 for Albert Park the record is 348mm
This is the type of system I think that could flood the Nelson/Richmond district.. GFS 12z looking at up to 230mm over the next week! Especially now with the track of the low tending it will slide through central NZ rather than sliding SE of Northland as previously guided.
Yes I remember the NE sheltering,no wind,sunny,it was like that in 1988-89 over the Xmas period and much of 1989
RWood wrote:Lovely sunny day here with only scattered thin high cloud. Classic NE sheltering,but tomorrow should revert to Sunday's cloud and light rain.
Yes, a sizeable rain event for Nelson could be a good bet.
hi all, can tell you that it has been psssssng down in the big city of waipu tonight, has rained on and off for most of the day, but tonight i has really been raining heavy. I went down the road earlier this evening and most of the drains were pretty full.....so if the rain keeps up tonight, they will be full to overflowing, and maybe flooding up in the north...will keep you posted.
tich wrote:Dull and damp on Bank's Peninsula and Chch today, but just light drizzly stuff.
We received good rainfall today and last night. The lake levels are relatively healthy now, and if we get a decent amount of Spring snowmelt, the power shortages are likely to be averted, although if we get as little snow this year as the last few then we won't be out of the woods.
No squall line there Cameo, storm motion is northerly.. pressures are just too high for that just yet .
Also looking quite convective this evening north of Cape Farewell.. further heavy rain for the Nelson area soon.
High out east intensifying for a time tomorrow.. that should push further heavy showers onto Northland.
This place sure is quiet.. quiet before the storm?
Still a lot of variance in the models.. UKMO looks the most reasonable at this stage IMO which could see the heaviest rain over Northland.. however it looks likely that the Buller region would get the highest totals from this system.. GFS likes the idea of a 'wrap-around' scenaria which redevelops the low and sends it through the upper North Island late Sunday.
Cool southwesterlies look likely to follow over NZ.
Should be some heavy showers over Canterbury tomorrow.. especially Banks Peninsular way.
Not much rain for CHCh, Banks Peninsular should get a few heavier showers as foggy says. Also small risk of a thunderstorm, around lunchtime/early afternoon (probably not for chch though). Thursday not looking like much rain either till later at night and then falling thru out friday.
Last edited by 03Stormchaser on Tue 23/05/2006 19:13, edited 1 time in total.
Probly wont be much to scream about but something worth watching.
The low now possibly could deepen to 987hpa by saturday off the west coast of the south island instead of 990hpa that is was too yesterday keep an eye on this one.
It will definatly be very soggy under foot for the final at jade on Saturday and the chance of some heavy falls of rain friday night-saturday morning.
Cheers
Jason.
Short burst of rainfall here in Tawa earlier today then a gloomy day of low cloud and drizzle. Rainfall stepped up a bit this arvo taking the day's total from 4mm to 18 mm between 14:00 and 22:00 under steady northerly conditions which abruptly changed to the south at abt 20:00.
One of those days when I could see the moist air roiling over the NW side of the rift valley bringing that humidity in from the Tasman.
Neaby w/stns at Mana and Whitby confirm that the wind has dropped and the moisture is simply dropping out of the air in front of our noses... except their rainfall is lower than ours at the narrow end of the valley.
now,the 18 May was the floods
. 
, though maybe a slight improvement later.