Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 08/06/2006 17:22

I haven't checked models yet, as I have had other things to do, but it looks as tho' MetService is sort of wavering this system as a bit of a non-event, now. Interesting.
I'll report back later.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Thu 08/06/2006 20:06

gllitz wrote:Looking more and more likely for us to be getting a decent cold blast out of late MON/early TUES...850 Hpa temps shaping up to be mighty chilly (-4 to -8 down south!)

...and with what looks likely to be moisture-laden air to boot!

The cold air will *SQUEEZE* out that moisture, for sure...in the form of snow?...probably, we'll see how low she goes... Hail/sleet? For sure...
( I just hope we don't get any freezing rain...ice everywhere!!)

Out of curiousity...when was the last time something like that has happened in NZ? I've been here over 6 years now and can't remember an icing event.......

I don't think you ought to get your hopes too high.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 08/06/2006 20:38

looks like a good cold snap and very strong winds for monday/tuesday and maby wednesday.
Should see some snow in the usuall places
and your heavy showers and storms over the NI

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 08/06/2006 21:02

gllitz wrote:( I just hope we don't get any freezing rain...ice everywhere!!)

Out of curiousity...when was the last time something like that has happened in NZ? I've been here over 6 years now and can't remember an icing event.......

Freezing rain is very very rare in New Zealand, in fact I would go so far as to say virtually impossible. The fact that all of low land NZ is so close to the coast means the temperatures never get cold enough at low levels. At higher levels freezing precipitation is nearly always snow. Thats another of the consequences of living in a martime climate, as opposed to the continental effects you might see in the US.

gllitz wrote:My faith is more with Blue Skies (always has been, I might add )

Buy that man a DB

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 08/06/2006 21:37

A situation to watch indeed especially Monday,Tuesday next week here's hoping she shapes up to be our first snow of season for us.
Seriously MS saying Fine weather when there's a fat low to the east with isobars like railway tracks running straight in S-SE and darn cold air.

I am sure they will figure it out soon enough

.
Another cracker today my vege's need it lack of sun in the past few weeks as of before monday plenty rain though

.
Got to have the winter vege's for that warm pumpkin soup or vegetable soup with the letters in it

.
Cheers
Jason.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 08/06/2006 22:08

Looks as though we wont get the colder snap this WE as I thought may happen. It shows you can't really trust models out to a week or so.
My scenario now looks as though systems will weakon out, now and surface anticyclonic areas will remain supreme, ....sadly
The only saviour could be with possible upper level trough movements

?
This could mean lots more smoggy nights for Christchurch, Timaru and Waimate.
Waimate may get it's smoggiest year ever this year.

JohnGaul
NZTS

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 08/06/2006 22:21

Jasestrm wrote:A situation to watch indeed especially Monday,Tuesday next week here's hoping she shapes up to be our first snow of season for us.

Short memory Jason?

http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/forum/vi ... &start=165

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 08/06/2006 22:46

Gary Roberts wrote:
Jasestrm wrote:I wonder if we will get another go at snow .
Cheers
Jason.
Breath. Not. My. Holding.

Dit-. -to. (esp. after reading the latest postings!)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 08/06/2006 22:51

Well yeh there is that too Tony

but I am talking about abit more than last time

.
We can only live in hope people well for those who want snow

.
Cheers
Jason.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 08/06/2006 23:00

My scenario now looks as though systems will weakon out, now and surface anticyclonic areas will remain supreme, ....sadly

All the latest models I've seen are going for a cold airstream early next week in the wake of a low crossing the North Island. However, the flow may not be southerly enough for any major action in Chch.
Disturbed southwesterlies look like prevailing for the rest of the week.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Fri 09/06/2006 11:45

Please see the attached METEOGRAM...looks interesting, I would say...I especially like how the 2M temp hovers around the 0 mark for a while....
My hopes are not too high about MON/TUES, but we'll see...

(The result is from a model run only 5 hours old)

Cheers,
-Glenn

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 09/06/2006 16:03

gllitz wrote:My hopes are not too high about MON/TUES

Thats lucky

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 09/06/2006 16:06

still on target for a potential good blasting on monday/tuesday

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 09/06/2006 16:24

well by looking at the model looks qiute interesting for monday, looks as tho at this stage we are looking at around 985 hpa on monday with strong winds and very cold air

from what other people are telling me (jasestrm) it sounds pretty promising so make sure ya got ya wood box stacked for monday, tuesday

cheers: mike

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Fri 09/06/2006 20:05

hmmm...fizzle...fizzle....

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Fri 09/06/2006 20:16

gllitz wrote:hmmm...fizzle...fizzle....

Looks that way. It seems as if all the best action weather I can remember arrived unheralded. Everytime any event is anticipated and hyped it turns out to be a nothing deal. So everybody shuttup!

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Fri 09/06/2006 21:24

Gary Roberts wrote:
gllitz wrote:hmmm...fizzle...fizzle....
Looks that way. It seems as if all the best action weather I can remember arrived unheralded. Everytime any event is anticipated and hyped it turns out to be a nothing deal. So everybody shuttup!

Don't you tell me to shuttup!

But I will, anyway!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 09/06/2006 22:51

Gary Roberts wrote: Everytime any event is anticipated and hyped it turns out to be a nothing deal. So everybody shuttup!

OK then, I'll shut up for ever

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 10/06/2006 10:53

Look at this stupid high pressure cell,its almost just east of us yet we still getting this lousy and boring weather,Australias highs are 10 degrees furthur south than these ones

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 10/06/2006 12:05

haha gary ok i will shut up now just so that you can have your snow

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 10/06/2006 16:25

This next low judging by the current weather must be a major event

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Sat 10/06/2006 22:21

Nah... it'll be nothing. <waiting with baited breath for *something, ANYTHING* to happen in Canterbury!

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sat 10/06/2006 22:37

Andrew Massie wrote:Nah... it'll be nothing. <waiting with baited breath for *something, ANYTHING* to happen in Canterbury!

What do you wish for??? I personally wouldn't mind a decent dump of snow with plenty of warning though.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 11/06/2006 09:13

Another cold miserable day here,didnt they say it would be better,perhaps this is it only difference wind has dropped

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 11/06/2006 11:06

Yesterday was lovely. Today the WNW is getting up but not strong yet except in more exposed areas. Fine and mostly sunny with some arch cloud and the usual formation over the Tararuas to the north where they get the full westerly blast. Excellent visibility from the high ground at present. Interesting to see if the forecast events produce anything out of the ordinary here.

NZ Weather Forum

Colder Event for Next WE - 10/11June 2006

looking good so far