Monday 12th: Severe Gales, Snow and Storms

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Willoughby
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Monday 12th: Severe Gales, Snow and Storms

Unread post by Willoughby »

Thought it was time for a fresh thread on this event.

GFS and UKMO nicely show real strengthening of the northwesterly jetstream as it comes off Aust. (Both showing 160 knots!) as it surges about north of Taupo starting Monday morning...
Most models seem in agreement with the low crossing from Westport to Kaikoura during Monday and deepening to around 974mb. Not at all going with ECMWF thanks!
The interaction with the surface deepening low and strong jet should lead to very strong northwesterlies during front over all of the North Island, especially Auckland, Whakatane and Gisborne i'd say at this stage.
Gale westerly change... evening cold gale S change from Kaikoura to Wellington.. and looks like.. yes Micheal, this time, gale (or strong)southwesterlies following on Tuesday for Auckland northwards.

Looking troughy behind the front.. looks like that cold air will slide through from about Horowhenua as far north as New Plymouth.. may be some thunderstorms then evening! Looks like coastal Canterbury and Wellington may get the most rain from this system.

Looking healthier for snow late next week.. strong potential looming there, John :)

Yeah.. so.. let it BLOW!!! :twisted: :D :twisted:
Last edited by Willoughby on Mon 12/06/2006 03:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

any aucklanders wana come out here on the wild west coast and experience ond of our hum dinger NWer storms that we can get?
(and which we have not had for ages)
i will mount a weather station on the car to make a storm chase car, LOL
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Unread post by squid »

looks like a nice healthy system for ya some models have it crossing northern SI other have it crossing the central NI.
all in all i reckon you should see gales ans storms for the NI and gales rain/snow for eastern SI then IF a high comes over severe frosts in the usuall places. otherwise you will be stuck with a SW flow.
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Unread post by Michael »

Manukau heads observer wrote: i will mount a weather station on the car to make a storm chase car, LOL
And don your mittens,scarves,raincoats and gumboots ;)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

Through to Auckland today, observed one very hefty T/Cu just north of Huntly.. one stage i'm sure I could see some funnel thing.. or maybe it was just very low scud.

Mainly fine and fresh in central Ak, 16c :)

Looks like this S wind change to develop in the Cook Strait could rise to storm. :shock:
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Unread post by Michael »

Not here now black as blazes here and forcasters say isolated showers forecasted have been all day as occasional showers but then it is south westerly pressure 1 isobar but still wet and windy as :-({|=
Foggy Hamilton wrote:Mainly fine and fresh in central Ak, 16c :)

:shock:
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yes severe NW gales tomorrow followed by Southerly gales overnight so leave the rake in the shed :lol: :D .
Should be a short period of heavy rain here too as Foggy has sugested and Models show it too I would say snow could lower to about 400m.
But more of a W-SW flow for much of the week then next Wekend looks to be a real cold blast could last 2-3 days but we shall get through this low first.
Cheers
Jason.
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Unread post by spike_01 »

All clear here so far... But I expect there will be some fun with this one...

Batten down the hatches around Napier etc... 8)
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Unread post by Michael »

spike_01 wrote:All clear here so far... But I expect there will be some fun with this one...

Batten down the hatches around Napier etc... ie auckland 8)
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Unread post by RWood »

Bring it on - recent events here have generally been "fizzers", or at least over-forecast. ;)
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Re: Monday 12th: Severe Gales, northern and central NZ

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Thought it was time for a fresh thread on this event.

Good idea :D YES
Take no notice of views/comments on previous topic. [-X
(This posted before I read the topics on this thread)
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Re: Monday 12th: Severe Gales, northern and central NZ

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Foggy Hamilton wrote:
Looking healthier for snow late next week.. strong potential looming there, John :)

Yeah.. so.. let it BLOW!!! :twisted: :D :twisted:

Yes Let it Blow
"Let It Blow" is a Richard Thompson song (of which I'm a fan of) with NZ connections.

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Unread post by squid »

this system has dumped over 120mm of rain in bundaberg eastern austraila and is getting stronger just a little taste of what is to come for NZ on monday/tuedsay enjoy it
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Mild out at the moment 17C with a gusty N wind high cloud has gone through now it's scrappy cloud from the west.
Could be an event and a half in the next 24hrs stay tunned I see MS have 24 land areas on warning thats the most land areas iv'e seen since about late last year. :D
Should be a period of N-NW gales here this afternoon followed by rain overnight sometimes heavy same for tomorrow except southerly Gales.
I wouldn't want to be crossing the cook strait in the next 36hrs unless you want your wine spilt on the floor :lol: :D .
Cheers
Jason.
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Unread post by squid »

Canterbury, Otago, Southland and Fiordland
Rain in Fiordland spreading elsewhere this evening. Snow lowering to 600 metres in Southland overnight and 300 metres in Canterbury tomorrow morning, then easing to showers and clearing inland towards midday. Snow showers to 200 metres in Southland tomorrow night.

looking good for snow latest forcast above
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Unread post by squid »

Valid to: Noon 12 Jun 2006 NZST
Issued at: 10:53 am 11 Jun 2006 NZST

An active front preceded by a band of heavy rain and northerly gales is expected to move over much of northern and central New Zealand as a deep low crosses the South Island. There is a moderate risk of some severe thunderstorms, gusts in excess of 110km per hour and possibly a few weak tornadoes from Taranaki to the central North Island plateau and Bay of Plenty northwards. Rainfall rates could reach 10-25mm per hour briefly (see warning). From northern Westland to Nelson there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms and gusts 90-110km per hour. There is also a heavy rain warning in force. A southerly change should spread over north Canterbury and Marlborough but the risk of any thunderstorms is low. No other thunderstorms forecast.

even forcasting weak tornadoes :D
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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

squid wrote:Valid to: Noon 12 Jun 2006 NZST
Issued at: 10:53 am 11 Jun 2006 NZST

An active front preceded by a band of heavy rain and northerly gales is expected to move over much of northern and central New Zealand as a deep low crosses the South Island. There is a moderate risk of some severe thunderstorms, gusts in excess of 110km per hour and possibly a few weak tornadoes from Taranaki to the central North Island plateau and Bay of Plenty northwards. Rainfall rates could reach 10-25mm per hour briefly (see warning). From northern Westland to Nelson there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms and gusts 90-110km per hour. There is also a heavy rain warning in force. A southerly change should spread over north Canterbury and Marlborough but the risk of any thunderstorms is low. No other thunderstorms forecast.

even forcasting weak tornadoes :D

Sounds more like a case of CYA to me. I suspect they're not expecting much, at least not outside the upper half of the NI, but don't want to get caught out. Can't say I blame them either.
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Unread post by Cameo1 »

When I looked at the noon sat pic I felt a very real shiver run through me. :shock: This looks damn nasty, :? I've never seen a system quite like it(in Winter anyway).
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Unread post by gllitz »

Bags not to be on a Trans-tasman flight today! :-P

I also see they have closed Mt Hutt due do strong winds about the access road. :shock:

(Bummer! They JUST opened yesterday, but the ski fields should hopefully get a good dump out of this one and the ones to follow this coming week...)
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Unread post by Willoughby »

MetService sound quite optimistic regarding thunderstorm potential! :shock:

Another nice warm day in Ak after some overnight showers :)
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Unread post by Wildland »

Hey. Someone put the "Windy" back in "Welly." :P
Wind started gusting intermittently from abt. 1 a.m. but was graciously light for our 4 a.m. door-rattling quake.
Action has moved up a notch with winds gusting from WNW to NNE since about 11 a.m.
Made for a refreshing walk - and nice to get blown home! :D
Won't be so happy when it turns to the south, though.... :-({|=
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Unread post by joecam »

Good dump of rain in Greymouth/Runanga as I write this. Multiple flooding calls to houses and shops.
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Unread post by RWood »

Wildland wrote:Hey. Someone put the "Windy" back in "Welly." :P
Wind started gusting intermittently from abt. 1 a.m. but was graciously light for our 4 a.m. door-rattling quake.
Action has moved up a notch with winds gusting from WNW to NNE since about 11 a.m.
Made for a refreshing walk - and nice to get blown home! :D
Won't be so happy when it turns to the south, though.... :-({|=
Harden up! Nothing to write home about at this stage. The less often these things happen, the more fuss the media make about them. When that big southerly storm in Aug. 2004 occurred, they tried to make out it was as damaging as Wahine/Giselle - complete bollocks. The benchmark NW blow in the last decade was in Oct 1998, when the Hau Nui (?name) turbine(s) near Martinborough recorded a gust of 217kph. But then Hawkins Hill had some light zephyrs approaching 250kph in 1959 and 1962...
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Unread post by Gary Roberts »

RWood wrote:...Hawkins Hill had some light zephyrs approaching 250kph in 1959 and 1962...
Lots of people had Zephyrs in 1962.
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Unread post by Michael »

Probably no windier than our standard SW here :lol:
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