Another icy blast from Friday 16th to Monday 19th June
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Another icy blast from Friday 16th to Monday 19th June
The latest models tend to be in agreement about this, suggesting that there should be 2 waves of polar southerly air affecting the whole country. Different from today's snowy blast - places like Timaru and inland Canterbury areas less likely to be affected, but Chch and Dunedin should be in the firing line, plus the central NI.
Last edited by tich on Mon 19/06/2006 13:26, edited 2 times in total.
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Friday
North Island, rain or showers spreading north in the west, showers later in the east. South Island, rain easing to showers in the west, cold southwest change brings showers to the east and snow flurries later to the south.
looks ok for further snow on friday/saturday in the areas mentioned above
North Island, rain or showers spreading north in the west, showers later in the east. South Island, rain easing to showers in the west, cold southwest change brings showers to the east and snow flurries later to the south.
looks ok for further snow on friday/saturday in the areas mentioned above
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- 03Stormchaser
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Hmm interesting, snow too low levels again this up coming Weekend!!
Warm NW friday, turnig more W overnight. Southerly change saturday morning picking up during the morning, 500mb thickness levels down too 523, 850mb temp 5.5C, 500mb -35C. Snow to low levels although amounts wont be anywere near todays. The second southerly change as tich mentions will come thru sunday evening. Snow will fall but will be higer that the first change.
Baramometer will be reading quite high though, does this affect thickness and 850mb readings if pressure is high??
Warm NW friday, turnig more W overnight. Southerly change saturday morning picking up during the morning, 500mb thickness levels down too 523, 850mb temp 5.5C, 500mb -35C. Snow to low levels although amounts wont be anywere near todays. The second southerly change as tich mentions will come thru sunday evening. Snow will fall but will be higer that the first change.
Baramometer will be reading quite high though, does this affect thickness and 850mb readings if pressure is high??
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- gllitz
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Please see attached for most recent GFSx run (7 hours old)...850mb temps are at the -6C mark and thickness right down as well!!03Stormchaser wrote:Hmm interesting, snow too low levels again this up coming Weekend!!
Warm NW friday, turnig more W overnight. Southerly change saturday morning picking up during the morning, 500mb thickness levels down too 523, 850mb temp 5.5C, 500mb -35C. Snow to low levels although amounts wont be anywere near todays. The second southerly change as tich mentions will come thru sunday evening. Snow will fall but will be higer that the first change.
Baramometer will be reading quite high though, does this affect thickness and 850mb readings if pressure is high??
Will have to keep an eye on this one...precip amounts are not so smallish anymore as well...hmmm...IF it stays like this, as it did for Monday's event, then I'd say more snow to sea level (in CHCH, anyway)
And....most importantly, coincides with ATS
http://ats.co.nz/weather/12day.asp
One to watch out for during the week...here's hoping that IF the models stay consistent, we can prepare so we don't get caught out...
(My wife thinks I am a "weather dork", but better prepared than not!)
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The South Island West Coast might even get some low level snow if ECMWF outlook for Friday proves correct. GFS and GASP seem to be going for lows forming over the North Island in the very cold air, intensifying any snow on the North Island high country - you may even see some on Pirongia and the Kaimais Foggy.It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.
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Saturday or Sunday? (I have to work Saturday, so I'm hoping for Sunday).Foggy Hamilton wrote:It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.
GFSx has persistant cold southerlies over Aotearoa, a high is set to start blocking over SE Australia, sending them up.
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Wouldn't know at this stage.. but i'd hint at Sunday.. as tich says there is a bit of a southwesterly component in the models.. may suggest that places like Taumarunui (if cold enough) to the Grand Chateau will recieve it first, rather than that Waiouru/Kaimanawa area.tgsnoopy wrote:Saturday or Sunday? (I have to work Saturday, so I'm hoping for Sunday).Foggy Hamilton wrote:It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.
GFSx has persistant cold southerlies over Aotearoa, a high is set to start blocking over SE Australia, sending them up.
Interesting times ahead again
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Saturday not looking as good here, although snow flurries to low levels still possible. Snow inland down to 200-300m. Monday looks like a repeat of last monday, snow to very low levels, and in ChCh for a 3rd time already this winter.
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South westerlies dont really get well into that area due to the SI and if any snow probably hit Pirongia 1st would,A cold westerly flow would bring snow to the Taumaranui hills
Foggy Hamilton wrote: Wouldn't know at this stage.. but i'd hint at Sunday.. as tich says there is a bit of a southwesterly component in the models.. may suggest that places like Taumarunui (if cold enough) to the Grand Chateau will recieve it first, rather than that Waiouru/Kaimanawa area.
Interesting times ahead again
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Ya know what makes me snigger, Foggy? The last couple of years people have taken winter holidays in places like Fiji, to escape the cold season...and we had no winter. This year they stayed put!Foggy Hamilton wrote:GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington
Flutterbye looks like your best chance at snow will be Saturday, as thickness drops to 5220 and 500mb temps @ -36c!
This has surprised me, since I thought we'd get another winterless winter too.
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Perhaps in the mainland but I am sure Aucklanders go away almost soley to escape the rain (light but which has restarted)
Gary Roberts wrote:The last couple of years people have taken winter holidays in places like Fiji, to escape the cold season...and we had no winter. This year they stayed put!
This has surprised me, since I thought we'd get another winterless winter too.
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The front has to come up from the south and swing around and come in from the WNW for us to get any decent falls in the city Foggy. My fingers are crossed.Foggy Hamilton wrote:GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington
Flutterbye looks like your best chance at snow will be Saturday, as thickness drops to 5220 and 500mb temps @ -36c!
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I'm still getting up to speed with some of the acronyms and terms used here.Foggy Hamilton wrote:GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington
Can you decipher what is meant by "528dm over Wellington" ??
Would also like to know who GFS, ECMWF, CRAS (a cute little acronym - lucky they left the last "s" off!), GASP (sounds suitable for weather) and NGP are.
Appreciate your help.