Another icy blast from Friday 16th to Monday 19th June

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 12/06/2006 20:24

The latest models tend to be in agreement about this, suggesting that there should be 2 waves of polar southerly air affecting the whole country. Different from today's snowy blast - places like Timaru and inland Canterbury areas less likely to be affected, but Chch and Dunedin should be in the firing line, plus the central NI.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 12/06/2006 20:27

yes I been looking at that aswell and it does seem likely that you could be in for some further snow.
I would say that southland to chch woudl be in the fire line and the usuall NI places.
I would not expect the snow to be as bad as it was today.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 12/06/2006 20:36

Friday
North Island, rain or showers spreading north in the west, showers later in the east. South Island, rain easing to showers in the west, cold southwest change brings showers to the east and snow flurries later to the south.

looks ok for further snow on friday/saturday in the areas mentioned above

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 12/06/2006 20:49

squid wrote:yes I been looking at that aswell and it does seem likely that you could be in for some further snow.
I would say that southland to chch woudl be in the fire line and the usuall NI places.
I would not expect the snow to be as bad as it was today.

I won't hold my breath

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 12/06/2006 21:56

Hmm interesting, snow too low levels again this up coming Weekend!!

Warm NW friday, turnig more W overnight. Southerly change saturday morning picking up during the morning, 500mb thickness levels down too 523, 850mb temp 5.5C, 500mb -35C. Snow to low levels although amounts wont be anywere near todays. The second southerly change as tich mentions will come thru sunday evening. Snow will fall but will be higer that the first change.

Baramometer will be reading quite high though, does this affect thickness and 850mb readings if pressure is high??

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 13/06/2006 14:09

03Stormchaser wrote:Hmm interesting, snow too low levels again this up coming Weekend!!

Warm NW friday, turnig more W overnight. Southerly change saturday morning picking up during the morning, 500mb thickness levels down too 523, 850mb temp 5.5C, 500mb -35C. Snow to low levels although amounts wont be anywere near todays. The second southerly change as tich mentions will come thru sunday evening. Snow will fall but will be higer that the first change.

Baramometer will be reading quite high though, does this affect thickness and 850mb readings if pressure is high??

Please see attached for most recent GFSx run (7 hours old)...850mb temps are at the -6C mark and thickness right down as well!!

Will have to keep an eye on this one...precip amounts are not so smallish anymore as well...hmmm...IF it stays like this, as it did for Monday's event, then I'd say more snow to sea level (in CHCH, anyway)

And....most importantly, coincides with ATS

http://ats.co.nz/weather/12day.asp

One to watch out for during the week...here's hoping that IF the models stay consistent, we can prepare so we don't get caught out...

(My wife thinks I am a "weather dork", but better prepared than not!)

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 13/06/2006 17:21

nothing wrong with being a weather dork mate as i am one myself

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 13/06/2006 17:39

squid wrote:nothing wrong with being a weather dork mate as i am one myself

A man's gotta have a hobby! And so do women!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/06/2006 18:56

It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.

GFSx has persistant cold southerlies over Aotearoa, a high is set to start blocking over SE Australia, sending them up.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 13/06/2006 19:24

yes the high over austraila is moving very slowely and looks set to stall over Tas so i would expect to be shivering for a while yet may see some records broken

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 13/06/2006 20:48

It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.

The South Island West Coast might even get some low level snow if ECMWF outlook for Friday proves correct. GFS and GASP seem to be going for lows forming over the North Island in the very cold air, intensifying any snow on the North Island high country - you may even see some on Pirongia and the Kaimais Foggy.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 13/06/2006 21:12

Foggy Hamilton wrote:It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.

GFSx has persistant cold southerlies over Aotearoa, a high is set to start blocking over SE Australia, sending them up.

Saturday or Sunday? (I have to work Saturday, so I'm hoping for Sunday).

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 13/06/2006 21:29

tgsnoopy wrote:
Foggy Hamilton wrote:It looks good for the Central North Island at the moment.. may see some snow even in the higher Wellington suburbs if this keeps up. The secondary Monday event looks interesting.

GFSx has persistant cold southerlies over Aotearoa, a high is set to start blocking over SE Australia, sending them up.
Saturday or Sunday? (I have to work Saturday, so I'm hoping for Sunday).

Wouldn't know at this stage.. but i'd hint at Sunday.. as tich says there is a bit of a southwesterly component in the models.. may suggest that places like Taumarunui (if cold enough) to the Grand Chateau will recieve it first, rather than that Waiouru/Kaimanawa area.

Interesting times ahead again

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 13/06/2006 21:36

Anyone else notice the wee "burp" moving up the centre/E of the S Island in the latest loops??
Just curious...

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 13/06/2006 22:09

Saturday not looking as good here, although snow flurries to low levels still possible. Snow inland down to 200-300m. Monday looks like a repeat of last monday, snow to very low levels, and in ChCh for a 3rd time already this winter.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 13/06/2006 23:01

what is a burp?? in weather terms

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Wed 14/06/2006 07:39

I dunno...was at a loss for words...perhaps a "lee trough" as jasestrm suggested...

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 14/06/2006 09:05

squid wrote:what is a burp?? in weather terms

A more northerly event than a fart.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Wed 14/06/2006 10:27

hahahahahaha

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 14/06/2006 10:32

South westerlies dont really get well into that area due to the SI and if any snow probably hit Pirongia 1st would,A cold westerly flow would bring snow to the Taumaranui hills

Foggy Hamilton wrote: Wouldn't know at this stage.. but i'd hint at Sunday.. as tich says there is a bit of a southwesterly component in the models.. may suggest that places like Taumarunui (if cold enough) to the Grand Chateau will recieve it first, rather than that Waiouru/Kaimanawa area.

Interesting times ahead again

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 14/06/2006 11:07

GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington

Flutterbye looks like your best chance at snow will be Saturday, as thickness drops to 5220 and 500mb temps @ -36c!

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Wed 14/06/2006 11:09

Foggy Hamilton wrote:GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington

Flutterbye looks like your best chance at snow will be Saturday, as thickness drops to 5220 and 500mb temps @ -36c!

Ya know what makes me snigger, Foggy? The last couple of years people have taken winter holidays in places like Fiji, to escape the cold season...and we had no winter. This year they stayed put!

This has surprised me, since I thought we'd get another winterless winter too.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 14/06/2006 11:53

Perhaps in the mainland but I am sure Aucklanders go away almost soley to escape the rain (light but which has restarted)

Gary Roberts wrote:The last couple of years people have taken winter holidays in places like Fiji, to escape the cold season...and we had no winter. This year they stayed put!

This has surprised me, since I thought we'd get another winterless winter too.

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Wed 14/06/2006 11:56

Foggy Hamilton wrote:GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington

Flutterbye looks like your best chance at snow will be Saturday, as thickness drops to 5220 and 500mb temps @ -36c!

The front has to come up from the south and swing around and come in from the WNW for us to get any decent falls in the city Foggy. My fingers are crossed.

Wildland · Unread post by **Wildland** » Wed 14/06/2006 12:27

Foggy Hamilton wrote:GFS and ECMWF both going for 528dm thickness levels over the Central Plateau by Sunday 12z.. CRAS, GASP and NGP all bringing the colder air down a bit, with 528dm over Wellington

I'm still getting up to speed with some of the acronyms and terms used here.
Can you decipher what is meant by "528dm over Wellington" ??

Would also like to know who GFS, ECMWF, CRAS (a cute little acronym - lucky they left the last "s" off!), GASP (sounds suitable for weather) and NGP are.

Appreciate your help.