Wintry weekend looming

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tich
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Wintry weekend looming

Unread post by tich »

MetService is going for cold southwesterlies over NZ, with snow to low levels in the south of the South Island, and thunder and hail elsewhere. The models certainly suggest a wintry outbreak. But the GASP models make you want to gasp (excuse the pun) in disbelief. Saturday's prognosis suggests a 516 thickness line over the centre of the South Island, and a 520 line cuting across Nelson and Cook Strait! Now that's a pretty extreme forecast for October which they'll probably tone down, but I think we're definitely in for a wintry weekend. Not with heavy snowfalls like the recent inland Canterbury dump, but with lighter and more extensive low level falls, at least in the South Island.

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Unread post by Michael »

When is this (&@p going to end? It was better in July than this so called spring :(
Blowing a gale in Auckland as usual tonight
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Possibly in November ... and December and January and February, when it will be very settled with anticyclone after anticyclone after antiyclone drifting over NZ.

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Unread post by Michael »

"Believe it when we see it" ;) Well it didnt do that last summer remember the easterly and troughs over the north but then you never got all the rain and cloudiness over summer like we did
[quote="NZ Thunderstorm Soc"]Possibly in November ... and December and January and February, when it will be very settled with anticyclone after anticyclone after antiyclone drifting over NZ.

]
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

The first of these anticyclones should move over us next week in behind a the stormy WE we are going to get here on Friday and Sat, clearing from Sunday. There should lots of sunny fine weather in Auckland next week! :)


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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wow,what a huge cloud sheet system in the tasman
this low might just reach the proportion (wind/rain) they have been forecasting!
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, as what I said on my other postings, you better battern down the hatches.

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup
(been away down playing in the snow with the kids, school holidays....
lots of snow on ruhapehu, we had 50 cm depth to play with half way up to the car park, so just stopped there :)
there was snow even on pihunga behing turangi yesterday (i.e very wintry secne), and right down on the kaimanawa ranges), and some real nasty hails showers that day too

it depends how northerly the wind is how much we will get it here...
a 125 year old church lost some of its roof in the last big blow only a few days ago!
(we had no power, so i dont know what the top windspeed was here!)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Will we in poor Cantab get anything John?

There was a bit of Cu around the port hills today. I think they are coming from moisture that evaporates from Lyttleton Harbour because the clouds look to begin to develop overhead of the harbour then slowly grow a bit as the moved east, they quickly disapated as the sun went down and it got cooler.

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Cu clouds over Lyttleton Harbour / Port Hills, looking from Sydenham / Town.

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Unread post by NZstorm »

Obs this morning from

MaQuarie Island
Temperature minus1, Southerly 40knots, baro 982hpa Snow

Norfolk Island
Temperature 19 Dewpiont 18, Northerly 15knots, baro 1008hpa Overcast


Looks like bitterly cold air coming up from the south, very moist air coming in from the north. Ingredients for some very nasty weather
(somewhere). Looks like a wintry outbreak for the SI is on the way.

Cloud sheet in the Tasman Sea looks extensive but disorganised.
Currently 8/8 altostratus with light rain in Auckland.
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Unread post by Michael »

[quote="Aaron J Wilkinson"]Will we in poor Cantab get anything John?

Probably not much We as always get the stormiest weather here :(
Winter has arrived late
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Unread post by Chris Raine »

Calm in Invercargill this morning,Moderate rain Temp 6.8 degrees.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://ps.gen.nz/~hamgap/waipu.htm

the wind is increasing in northland now....
a good site to keep an eye on :)

latest quick scat mircowave wind on the water pass has a huge no data hole over the tasman ! :(
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

big changes on the sat pic in only 3 hours
looks like the main center in the mid tasman is getting more organised now
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas70.png

finally a good quick cat scan

some 45 knot winds with the cold front, but not too much wind with the low
less wind, so far, than the last system...
but its still deepening....
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Unread post by Michael »

Doesnt look much different than what Auckland usually gets from the NE apart from the rain on the WmBas map but the SW change and following it look more hideous
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

barometer dropping fast here now, 2 hpa last hour
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Mine dropped like a stone overnight!
Eventually down to 976hPa by a quarter to 3. this afternoon.
Now the southerly has gone through.
With the low pressure, the sky looks quite disorganized here.
I don't know what the thunder chances are for Canterbury tommorow, Aaron? ...but as the borometer is very low, anything can happen.
The temp has gone down from 24C here just before the southerly hit at 4:30pm to 13C now.

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Unread post by Michael »

Whats 24 degrees like? we wouldve seen that for 7 months now ;)
The temp has gone down from 24C here just before the southerly hit at 4:30pm to 13C now.

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Unread post by jeffsweather »

Temp now 10.3 with the southerly gusting to 44km/h. Just as I left work the southerly picked up, rushing through the trees. A difficult ride home on the bike with the head wind.

Few spots of rain now but it looks dark to the south, persistent rain forecast for the evening.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

42 knots gusts here now
the NWer has arrived with a rush!

make that 45 knots now

the intereseting thing is the temperature increase of 3oC or so (now nearly 8pm at nigth and nearly 17.2oC)
so it was a warm front .....so wheres the cold front?
looks to be on the other side of the tasman low

hey, really low pressures recorded near CHCH..amzing..
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://www.zl3gp.co.nz/wx.html

this station shows the big temperature drop and pressure drop/fall in CHCH today
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Unread post by Chris Raine »

Showers of small hail in Invercargill at 8pm ,Wind backed SW and pressure slowly climbing
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Still a bit of a breeze here from the south here late at night. No rain so far but there is light stuff around according to the RR. Barometer slowly rising but it has a long way to go to get back to reality.


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