Cold snap starting Monday 3rd July until...

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 04/07/2006 11:34

heavy rain here in christchurch earlier with maybe a little sleet is well. other then that its now coming over in just showers.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 04/07/2006 11:54

just had a period of sleet shower move through almost to snow but not qiute.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 04/07/2006 12:01

Heavy rain as I type this with mix of sleet big large blobs of sleet too as if it really does want to snow.
I think Fencepost have picked this out the best snow lowering later on i think when it's colder although the temp has dropped dramatically in the past 30 mins so maybe this afternoon.
Cheers
Jason.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Tue 04/07/2006 12:16

Quite the opposite down here.
Fine and sunny no chance of snow.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 04/07/2006 12:30

Just returned from Banks Peninsula late this morning - sleeting above about 200m and just about snowing at Hilltop. (450m) Light dusting only lying above about 600m so far. Now snow on Port Hills.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 04/07/2006 13:28

The odd Cb in our western sky today.. tops are very low as expected.
Very warm after yesterday.. up to 15.8Â°C with occasional showers.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 04/07/2006 13:35

I'm thinking BIGTIME fizzler for this time 'round....
Here's hoping for next time...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 04/07/2006 15:01

HEAVY SNOW WARNING

AREA/S AFFECTED: CANTERBURY
FORECAST:

CANTERBURY
Heavy snow has fallen in some places above 300 metres but is now
easing from the south. In the 1 to 3 hours from midday Tuesday a
further 5-10cm of snow is possible above 400 metres in the foothills
from about the Rakaia Gorge northwards,with lesser amounts at lower
levels. Snow should then ease to scattered showers but strong cold
southerly winds will continue.

KAIKOURA COAST
Cold southerlies are bringing snow to the hills. In the 24 hours from
about midday Tuesday 20-30cm of snow may accumulate above 400 metres
with lesser amounts of snow or sleet to near sea-level. Snow should
then ease but strong cold southerly winds continue.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 04/07/2006 15:02

yeah me to gllitz. its a real shame ummm i think metservice need to have questions asked qiute frankley.um i had a funny feeling they were saying these warnings and ohh its gona be so big event" to cover them up for when they got it wrong last time.but i'd say no excuses there. They put out a total of 8 warnings around south island.and nothing has really happend so im annoyed with MS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 04/07/2006 15:03

woops sorry about the double posting

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 04/07/2006 15:22

squid wrote:Heavy snow has fallen in some places above 300 metres but is now
easing

Anyone see any of this? Gary?

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Tue 04/07/2006 15:46

There appears to be an outbreak of "uncertainty blindness" on the forum. This is where certain words in forecasts/warnings are ignored. e.g. for Canterbury

15-20cm of snow is possible above 500 metres in the foothills,
10-15cm is likely above 100m and lesser amounts of snow or sleet are possible down to sea-level

I've highlighted them to make them easier to see

Forecasters seem to be "damned if they do, damned if they don't" or accused of "covering their asses"

There's certainly fresh snow visible from the Castle Hill webcam down to about 700m.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 04/07/2006 15:54

With all due respect Stephen I think the problem lies with the way the media (and some individuals) are interpreting these forecasts and there needs to be a lead taken from the Metservice (etc) to point out to those mas media 'hystericals' as to what the forecasts say.

Communications all round leave a bit to be desired

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Tue 04/07/2006 16:09

A FORECASTE IS ONLY A BEST GUESS....nothing more and nothing less.
Its how you mannage that guess is what counts.

evltre · Unread post by **evltre** » Tue 04/07/2006 16:14

I feels to me like there is a certain amount of "playing it safe" going on with recent forecasts - predict the worst and hope for the best and at least if it all turns to custard and there's a big dump of snow no one can say "you didn't warn us!".

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 04/07/2006 16:36

Lightning tracker has sure fired up just off Taranaki!!! Batten down the hatches down that way

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 04/07/2006 16:56

Looks like Malborough and Kaikoura (esp the latter) will be more likely to be hit by severe weather, eg heavy snow. The very cold air may not reach further than the lower North Island, according to MetService.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Tue 04/07/2006 16:59

Perhaps most people don't like uncertainty in forecasts/life and the mass media reflects this.

It might help if the forecasters themselves presented the weather on TV the way they do in the UK ... but that's OT.

I was mostly concerned that this thread was going to turn into a lot of forecast bashing because it didn't turn out the way they promised it would earlier on

It looked really good on the GFS model runs at the weekend but by last night the forecast thickness had increased and by today it was up at 530dm

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 04/07/2006 17:05

Steven Graham wrote:
It might help if the forecasters themselves presented the weather on TV the way they do in the UK ... but that's OT.

You mean the naked channel?

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 04/07/2006 17:12

Some have taken this a little over on putting MS down yes they got it wrong we were relying on the weather but at the end of the day not everyone forecasts perfect.
Really weather models are just tools that man has created and if we use our own tool which is our brain with plenty of knowledge experience of such weather events or understanding weather yourself we can perhaps only rely more safly on that.

Then if you get it wrong you can abuse your brain

.
Cheers
Jason.

evltre · Unread post by **evltre** » Tue 04/07/2006 17:17

Personally I'm happier being over-prepared than under-prepared - particularly living out in the country - at least if there is warning it's up to me I'm alerted to the potential and have time to make sure that I've got enough wood chopped and stacked / food in the house etc - so to that end I would rather forecasters "played it safe". I know you should *always* be prepared - but working full time with kids running riot it's easy to wake up one morning to find that you're out of almost everything!

In saying that I *LOVE* the snow and must admit to being a tad disappointed when it doesn't show

KiwiWeather · Unread post by **KiwiWeather** » Tue 04/07/2006 17:21

Steven Graham wrote: It might help if the forecasters themselves presented the weather on TV the way they do in the UK ... but that's OT.(

"here's a wee picture of a sun and this is a cloud"

Weather presentation in the UK is equivalent to the intellectual capacity needed to watch Telly Tubbies.

er er er I suppose some of you have seen the wee sun rising up at the start and disappearing behind a pretty hill at the end?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 04/07/2006 17:25

Steven Graham wrote:There appears to be an outbreak of "uncertainty blindness" on the forum.

Thats weather geeks for ya. Happens twice in a week in summer, whenever a cold front approaches the usual suspects tell us there is a chance of a thunderstorm...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 04/07/2006 17:28

Maby for you down there but in the NI that is a different story

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 04/07/2006 23:15

Was , or did any 'heavy snow' fall in Canterbury?
I never heard of any reports.

JohnGaul
NZTS