Cold snap starting Monday 3rd July until...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 29/06/2006 13:15

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

If this pans out NZ could be ini for anouther round of gales, heavy rain and maby even snow thoughts??

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Thu 29/06/2006 13:48

Excellent looking disturbance.
Will watch with interest.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 29/06/2006 14:54

Wont be anything like the last system, that's for sure.
...And there isn't enough concensus to put out an accurate forecast at the moment.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 30/06/2006 12:23

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Gfs is going for another cold snap from monday onwards looks like it is going to be more of a snow event hence the change in thread name.

also metservice are going for a similar event.

Valid: Sat 01 July to Tue 04 July
Issued: Thu 29 June 2006 at 01:52 pm

Forecasters expect a cold front to cross the South Island during Sunday and Monday, preceded by a moist northerly airstream. Some heavy rain is expected along the West Coast ahead of this front, with a moderate risk that amounts will reach warning criteria in Fiordland and the Westland ranges south of Otira.

On Tuesday, a cold southerly flow is expected to spread over the South Island. Snow could fall to low levels in Southland, Otago, and Canterbury. However, the risk of warnable amounts of snow is considered very low at this range.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Fri 30/06/2006 15:53

Changed the thread name to include the date to make it easier to find later.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 30/06/2006 16:37

cheers for that steven

evltre · Unread post by **evltre** » Fri 30/06/2006 17:52

Updated:
Southerlies are expected to spread over the South Island behind the front, and a large low pressure area looks likely to develop over the country on Tuesday. Snow is possible to low levels in eastern South Island areas later in the forecast period, in a strong southeast flow. Amounts could reach warning criteria in Otago, Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast, but confidence is low at this stage.

Seen the latest update on the Metservice site - stepping it up a gear! Just a question - is this normal for Canterbury (ChCh) - to have so many snow warnings? We weren't here last winter so are not sure what to expect! It seems there's something happening every week! Or are they in overdrive so they don't get caught out again?

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 30/06/2006 18:02

well i guess they have to cover their butts somehow, i am not sure if the chch area has had as many snow warnings as they have had this year gosh i hope that made sence

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 30/06/2006 18:21

I usually only see snow falling at sea level here once a year and yet Iv'e already seen it fall on three different times.
I don't know wether The south island has ever seen so many snow occurances to sea level before but certainly in my life time I havn't seen such a cold winter.
If this low eventuates and all goes to plan this could be somewhat of

to hard to decribe really because after this blast another one is looking like developing too around the 9-11th.
I could be exagerating with this being so far out don't get me wrong but from what I have seen so far this winter anything is possible.
Now lets just sit on our icy fences and hope we dont fall off

.
Cheers
Jason.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Fri 30/06/2006 18:56

I notice that the M/S forecasts are reflecting that of Fenceposts.
Then another cold spell one week later.
Currently sitting on 0deg down here in for another frost 6th in a row.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 30/06/2006 19:12

Janos wrote:I notice that the fence post forecasts are reflecting the m/s.

Ahem. We had possible low level snow in our forecasts yesterday, before MS put out their prediction.

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Fri 30/06/2006 19:14

ooopps you are correct I had it round the wrong way.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Fri 30/06/2006 19:37

hey guys, yeah as jasestm is looking out for the 9 to 11th of july.i am iswell over somthing i have heard

but we will wait and see what happens.as its way to far out to actauly c whats going to happen.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 30/06/2006 20:31

GASP isn't predicting much of a southerly change, but GFS, UNISYS, and ECMWF are - looking cold and stormy again for the east of the North Island for a time next week.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 30/06/2006 23:44

Yes but even though surface pressures are high, coming behind the low which may hang off of the North Island's East cape, there are snow making making potential, at the moment, to fall in Canterbury from Monday night/Tuesday morning, or even Wednesday

JohnGaul
NZTS

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 01/07/2006 00:04

yeah thats kool. more snow yaaaaaaaaaaaaay come on people lets hope we get a blizzard this tuesday hehe.i know im talking way off stuff at the mo but i am very positive we are going to get a bigger storm then what we did on the 12 of july 2006 this winter

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Sat 01/07/2006 00:12

tornadoman18 wrote:yeah thats kool. more snow yaaaaaaaaaaaaay come on people lets hope we get a blizzard this tuesday hehe.i know im talking way off stuff at the mo but i am very positive we are going to get a bigger storm then what we did on the 12 of july 2006 this winter

Yep. You belong in this forum Mate.

Personally i'd like to see less "suspicious white powder" and more 10,000,000 volt static discharges! Or even a rotational CG wind formation....

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 01/07/2006 00:57

i am with you there mate thats for sure

looks like tuesday is going to be the worst day

Tuesday
North Island, showers in most places. South Island, rain in east and south. Snow down to low levels in south. Few showers and fine spells elsewhere.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 01/07/2006 11:50

Yes Tuesday alright Squid bet ya to it latest MS forecasts

.

North Island, rain or showers, clearing in the west from Raglan to New Plymouth. South Island, rain or showers, with snow likely to near sea level in the south and very low levels in the north, but becoming fine in the west, and inland parts of Otago and Southland later.

Now it's just a case of hoping she stays that way.
On the chch forecasts it has rain with low snow on both tuesday and wednesday

low snow havn't heard that one before

.
Cheers
Jason.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 01/07/2006 12:36

looking very good for you snow lovers possible snow for 3days in a row

Monday
Rain or showers in most places, but only a few falls in the east. A late, cold southerly change in the south with snow to low levels.

Tuesday
North Island, rain or showers, clearing in the west from Raglan to New Plymouth. South Island, rain or showers, with snow likely to near sea level in the south and very low levels in the north, but becoming fine in the west, and inland parts of Otago and Southland later.

Wednesday
North Island, rain or showers in many places, with snow to low levels including the Desert Road, but generally dry in western and central areas from Hamilton to New Plymouth and Taupo. South Island, showers retreating to near the east coast, with snow to low levels, mainly fine and very frosty elsewhere.

Smeagol · Unread post by **Smeagol** » Sat 01/07/2006 17:33

Brilliant. I'm looking forward to more days off work

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 01/07/2006 18:10

Met Service said,

South Island, rain or showers, with snow likely to near sea level in the south and very low levels in the north,

Whats the differene between snow to very low levels and snow to near Sealevel ?

Looks to me like any low level snow fall would be away from the Coast.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 01/07/2006 19:06

Jasestrm wrote:

On the chch forecasts it has rain with low snow on both tuesday and wednesday low snow havn't heard that one before .
Cheers
Jason.

I heard that with interest

The next thing they will probably say is "Snow falling to below sea-level"

JohnGaul
NZTS

Janos · Unread post by **Janos** » Sat 01/07/2006 19:11

Wouldnt get that sort of terminology on the fencepost forecasts.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 01/07/2006 20:04

The next thing they will probably say is "Snow falling to below sea-level"

Is there any land in NZ that is below sea-level?

"Low levels" is a subjective term, but I think 300m or below is what MetService defines as low levels. But long-range outlook for Wednesday predicts snow to low levels in central and lower North Island. Below 300m there - that would be a very cold southerly. (like July 2003)