Midnight models like it!

[Willoughby]

Snow looks set to return.. and thunderstorms over Auckland upwards, Thursday/Friday? GFS has been waiting so long for this.. and it has held up well.. goes for another deepening low off the HB too..

The ECMWF situation likens the thunderstorm risk mostly over AK at this stage.. showing quite a strengthening trough. Still a bit skeptical.. has fallen over of late and for SE Aussie.
Thickness progged is around 528dm at this point of time over the Central NI.

[gllitz]

Yeah, I suppose I jumped the gun a wee bit in my TUES/WED 11th/12th posting...you are right, looking WAY better for THUR/FRI...GASP is even showing THK levels of around 520 near CHCH for 1200UTC THUR!!

[TonyT]

Models have been off and on with this one for the last few days. Personally I think we've had a phase change in the last few days, and I doubt the current GFS prediction will pan out. A trough and period of cold SW flow yes, but the full on depression its showing is last month's weather I feel.

[squid]

[quote="Foggy Hamilton"]goes for another deepening low off the HB too..


what or where is HB??

[gllitz]

goes for another deepening low off the HB too..


what or where is HB??

Hawkes Bay

[squid]

cheers for that gllitz

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

[quote="Foggy Hamilton"]Snow looks set to return.. and thunderstorms over Auckland upwards, Thursday/Friday?

Who cares

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Willoughby]

Looks like we are well set for another pretty serious depression to mainly effect (in terms of rain) the east of NI from about Waipukurau northwards.

The latest GFS gives NZNV thickness 530dm, Friday evening and T @ 850mb, -7°C soon after, so it has eased off the strength of the change.

[squid]

can you keep things a bit simple for those like myself that get lost with all the upper level stuff.