Rain and Snow for many Thursday 13th July onwards

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 11/07/2006 09:09

Looks to be brewing a real doozy. Big time rain and snow looking likely especially for eastern regions from Canterbury to Hawkes Bay on the weekend. On top of already sodden ground in many areas too.....

Many skifields are already operating with snow bases higher than any time in the past five years....this season is going to be a record breaker by the tiem the traditional snow month of August arrives

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 11/07/2006 11:21

Big time rain and snow looking likely especially for eastern regions from Canterbury to Hawkes Bay on the weekend. On top of already sodden ground in many areas too.....

Looks to me like any snow will be above 500m and the heavy rainfall will be north of Canterbury, over SE NorthIsland

Good chance of Thunder for Western areas Wends/Thurs.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 11/07/2006 11:49

looks like a repeat of the last event, better get your boats ready

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Tue 11/07/2006 12:05

squid wrote:looks like a repeat of the last event, better get your boats ready

I don't think metservice are going for anything untoward.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 11/07/2006 13:34

Its looking like it could go further south than anticipated now

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 11/07/2006 14:08

Any thoughts if this could be one of those "warm advection" events...TonyT?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 11/07/2006 14:15

The way the models are looking then it has the potential to be a warm advection event. But I'm still not convinced that what the models are currently saying is how it will actually pan out.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 11/07/2006 14:23

Any thoughts if this could be one of those "warm advection" events...TonyT?

I doubt it.. can't see much in the way of tropical-bearing dewpoints.
Should see that next week with a low coming off over inland Australia.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 11/07/2006 14:28

Heres your answer...metservice are on board on this event now

Severe Weather alert
Valid: Thu 13 July to Sun 16 July
Issued: Tue 11 July 2006 at 02:11 pm

During Thursday morning, an active frontal band should be crossing northern and central parts of the North Island from the west. A short burst of heavy rain is expected with this front. There is a moderate risk that amounts will reach warning criteria about the high country between Waikato and East Cape. >
During Friday, forcasters expect a deep low to develop just northeast of Gisborne. This low is likely to be slow moving there for the remainder of the outlook period, and will produce an extended period of rain in the east of both islands, and about Wellington. There is uncertainty at this stage as to which areas will receive the heaviest falls. At this stage the risk of warnable amounts of rain from Gisborne down to Wellington is assessed as moderate.

In north Canterbury and on the Kaikoura Coast, the air initially is expected to be quite cold, and there is a low risk of some heavy snowfalls there on Friday and Saturday. With time, some warming is expected, and the likelihood of snow to low levels should diminish. However, on Saturday and Sunday, there could be some heavy falls of rain in the Kaikouras.

The low is expected to bring strong southeasterlies to northern and central New Zealand. About Gisborne, northern Hawkes Bay, the central North Island plateau, and about Taranaki, severe gale force gusts are possible at times on Friday and Saturday[/b]

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 11/07/2006 14:28

Sometimes I wonder if they wait to see what we think and then follow like sheep....

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 11/07/2006 15:05

yeah it does look good for saturday indeed for somthing maybe to happen but we will have to wait and see!. atleast the weather was ok for me today trying to sit a full licence test. Witch didnt turn out as i would of liked it too

never mind though

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 11/07/2006 18:33

Didnt the witch give you her broom to drive

tornadoman18 wrote: atleast the weather was ok for me today trying to sit a full licence test. Witch didnt turn out as i would of liked it too never mind though

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 11/07/2006 20:04

i see that there is a heavy rain warning out for the west coast of the SI

meanwhile it looks like you are in for some wild weather over the next few days.

Valid: Thu 13 July to Sun 16 July
Issued: Tue 11 July 2006 at 02:11 pm

During Thursday morning, an active frontal band should be crossing northern and central parts of the North Island from the west. A short burst of heavy rain is expected with this front. There is a moderate risk that amounts will reach warning criteria about the high country between Waikato and East Cape. >

During Friday, forcasters expect a deep low to develop just northeast of Gisborne. This low is likely to be slow moving there for the remainder of the outlook period, and will produce an extended period of rain in the east of both islands, and about Wellington. There is uncertainty at this stage as to which areas will receive the heaviest falls. At this stage the risk of warnable amounts of rain from Gisborne down to Wellington is assessed as moderate.

In north Canterbury and on the Kaikoura Coast, the air initially is expected to be quite cold, and there is a low risk of some heavy snowfalls there on Friday and Saturday. With time, some warming is expected, and the likelihood of snow to low levels should diminish. However, on Saturday and Sunday, there could be some heavy falls of rain in the Kaikouras.

The low is expected to bring strong southeasterlies to northern and central New Zealand. About Gisborne, northern Hawkes Bay, the central North Island plateau, and about Taranaki, severe gale force gusts are possible at times on Friday and Saturday.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 11/07/2006 23:30

I don't think so.

Looks as though it will be cold and boring here and lots more rain in the North Island in places where they don't need any more rain...
...but there could be a tornado or a waterspout coming in onshore on the West Coast if localised barometric pressures drops low enough

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Tue 11/07/2006 23:36

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I don't think so.
Looks as though it will be cold and boring here and lots more rain in the North Island in places where they don't need any more rain...
...but there could be a tornado or a waterspout coming in onshore on the West Coast if localised barometric pressures drops low enough

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yep - I'm picking cold & boring here as well.

huttcrazy · Unread post by **huttcrazy** » Wed 12/07/2006 00:11

Hi

Looking less boring here in the lower NI. I think we could have another 100mm in that big gully that is Lower Hutt and a lot more east of the hills. Fingers crossed the low runs further north than currently forecast - the Wairarapa could do without any more rain just yet.

Cheers

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 12/07/2006 08:17

Squid you posted the same warning! I don't think we needed it twice on one thread on one page!

Perhaps we all need to sharpen up round here with the cutting and pasting pandemic (I'm guilty too by the looks of it)

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 12/07/2006 08:25

The prognosis for the weekend looks to be less severe on latest Metvuw? HOWEVER... the middle of next week now looks interesting with a deepning system crossing NZ from the central tasman...

MaxM · Unread post by **MaxM** » Thu 13/07/2006 08:31

Snow is far, far away from here these days! We've had tmax of over 25c for several days in a row now and yesterday we had 31c as a tmax.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Thu 13/07/2006 08:48

MaxM wrote:Snow is far, far away from here these days! We've had tmax of over 25c for several days in a row now and yesterday we had 31c as a tmax.

aaaan you guys hosted a great world cup!

you should be very proud to be German.

MaxM · Unread post by **MaxM** » Thu 13/07/2006 09:10

Thanks a lot! I loved it too! I watched football all the time! But I was sad when Italy beat our team. Nevertheless, it was a great world championship and I'm really proud to be German. Anyway, the Sockeroos did very well too!

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Fri 14/07/2006 13:42

No snow!!!

But there is a giant spider on Hanmer Springs webcam

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 14/07/2006 13:57

The prognosis for the weekend looks to be less severe on latest Metvuw?

Not too much in Chch so far, just a few slight drizzly showers and a cool southerly breeze. Supposed to get a bit worse by early tomorrow with more frequent showers and snow to about 600m, but not a major storm or polar blast. Should hopefully clear up on Sunday.

Smeagol · Unread post by **Smeagol** » Fri 14/07/2006 15:32

Yeah it's quite warm here with 7Â°C and just rain. Doubt we will get any snow

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 14/07/2006 17:57

Yeah it's quite warm here with 7Â°C and just rain. Doubt we will get any snow

Not that I'd call 7C warm, but it's certainly too warm for snow. No more drizzly showers in Chch this afternoon, but today's radars show light precipitation on the Canterbury Plains (I guess that's where you are Smeagol). Must be a southeasterly, rather than a direct southerly - Banks Peninsula sheltering Chch somewhat in a southeasterly flow.