Rain on the way

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

just go to The Warhouse, it cost me 7 bucks

Where's the Warhouse? Fort Worth in the USA ?

Might I add I just edited to include "Go the AB's!"

What's the AB's I thought an AB was a class of steam locomotive that ploughed the railways tracks of NZ from 1923 to the withdrawl of steam locomotion in 1970!

Good postings Aaron, looks like you have been doing your homework.
Could be thundery off the Northland coast judging by the noon sattelite pic. Light rain falling here now with a cool easterly.


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Unread post by Thunder »

heheheh! :) ;) Funny John

"Warehouse" that's better!

"AB's" = All Blacks!

Yes I'm taking it to the next level! Hopefully this will help in forecasting the thunderstorm situation for Chch in future. In theory it's also possible to forecast funnel clouds / tornadoes to for the coming day whatever that day may be or if it will ever come at all! I can't wait until I see the oppertunity to be able to make such a forecast!

Has there ever been a time that funnel clouds or tornadoes have been forecast in NZ?

Drizzely Rain here at the moment, 3:21pm (Boring!).

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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by tich »

Now cleared up in the Chch area (areas of cloud persisting) after a period of unforecast (in this moring's forecast) rain. Must've been a passing (warm?) front moving down from the north.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

AB = All Blacks,
Yes, silly me. I realized just after my posting. I forgot that the world cup rugby is on now :(

Good luck with your forecast

Cleared up now but we could be in for some rain tomorrow. Ene a bit breezy. Might be in for a tornado !!!!!!

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Unread post by NZstorm »

Re forecasting tornadoes. These are outside the scope of weather forecasting in NZ Aaron. Tornadoes tend to be freak occurances and quite rare in NZ. There has been very little study of tornadoes in NZ.

In USA damaging tornadoes are associated with mesocyclonic thunderstorms. A mesocyclone can form when there is good wind shear and the air is very unstable with both strong inflow and outflow within a cumulonimbus. Mesocyclones are predictable. Both the magnitude of the instability (CAPE) and strength of wind shear (helicity) are used to predict the likelyhood of a mesocyclone forming hence possibility of tornado formation. Both these parameters are measured daily by upper air soundings.

Just also add that there does not need to be a mesocyclone present for a funnel cloud. Many funnels are formed by a different process to that of mesocyclonic tornado formation.

Mesocyclones can be indentified at the inflow side of a cumulonimbus.
The cloud base will be substantialy lowered, have a very threatening appearance and show clear signs of rotation. Mesocyclones do occur in NZ from time to time. But not all mesocyclones produce tornadoes.
I suspect the strength of the surface inflow and the strength of the upper jet stream influence wether a tornado develops or not.
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Unread post by Michael »

Really enjoyed today being dry albeit cloudy and mild :) Now the rain is back for another week or more drenching in Auckland :(
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Unread post by Thunder »

Thanks for the info Steven!

When there is the mesocyclone structure present does this mean the cloud can then be termed a supercell? ? Can't wait to see one of those!

Has anyone here actually seen a mesocyclone type structure here in NZ?

Perhaps that one in Chch last year (October 27th) was close, golf ball sized hail, a tornado, mayby?
I've read that particuly for severe thunderstorms (supercells?) it is good if the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, so in theory there needs to be some type of cap that holds off convection (not to strong a cap though) so all the suns energy that the land warms up from is released later in the afternoon so as to have more energy, I guess?

Re forecasting tornadoes. Even though I asked if anyone else knew of them being forecast in NZ (I just asked to see if anyone else had heard of this), I seem to recall somewhere in the back of my head someone mentioning or me hearing or seen a previous post on the old forum where someone said or wrote about how Augie from 3 news weather (used to be) said there was the chance of tornadoes or funnel clouds somewhere up in the north of the North Island a while ago. Whether he mentioned this on the news or one of his radio slots I don't know. Am I right here or am I imagening things? lol.

Also Micheal, I can see how much it actually rains in Auckland. I looked at your posts on the weatherzone.com.au forum and it is what you say, it rains alot in Auckland! Not to worry, a new day will rise, and if thats wet and rainy another day will rise and the process keeps going until one day there will be sun! then it will be back to rain, lol! ;)

Very funny John! :)

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Unread post by NZstorm »

Every body is complaining about the weather in Auckland at the moment.
But bad weather is normal for Auckland in spring.

Raining heavily here at the moment with the guttering on the house overflowing. But the front is on us and I expect the rain to clear soon.
Once the front clears, the day should warm up to about 20C but showers likely to redevelop.
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Unread post by GraemeWi »

Clearing from the west - passing of an ana front according to one of my books...
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Unread post by Dean. »

Steady rain here,temperature 10.5 degrees.
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NZstorm
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Nice pic Graeme.

Below is a picture of a mesocyclonic thunderstorm over Auckland. Taken
on a hot February day back in the mid 1990's. The new updraught is showing cork screwing revealing the presence of a mesocyclone.

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

38mm or so here !
some great looking mama cloud as the front moved past
photo shows high cloud overhead, front to the east, blue skies to the west
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Unread post by NZstorm »

35mm here from the front.

Currently cloudy with 7/8 stratocumulus ,temp 19C.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

might be in for a tornado !!!!!!
I don't think so as it is drizzly/overcast and rainy at the moment here. Calm here as well with only a hint of a southerly. Boring.
I see MetService has got an advisory of another BLAST coming our way sometime tonight or tomorrow, I couldn't work out when. Better batten down the hatches !!!

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Unread post by Thunder »

John, you replied to your own quote from your posting on page 2 of this thread, hehehe :)

Things look good for Northland today and Auckland I guess to for thunderstorms. Nice Picture Steven of that cloud! As for the bad weather in Auckland, I'm all for it, so it's really good weather to me, I just wish more of it came down here, in time!

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Unread post by NZstorm »

Solid overcast (Altocumulus) today which prevents temperatures lifting and cb's developing. A sunny day today would have resulted in some nice buildups.

Some static on the am band. Ts is to the north of AK.

Current temp 18C
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

We've had some good rain here this afternoon.
When the convergence went through about 2:30pm, the heavens just opened up here.
13.3mm since 7:30am most of it since about 2pm.

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

this is the result of 120mm in whakatane on a mates dairy farm
he cant milk the cows, the cowshed is under water!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Raining here at the moment with a few flashes and rumbles out to the west last 15minutes.
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Unread post by Michael »

[quote="NZ Thunderstorm Soc"]We've had some good rain here this afternoon.
When the convergence went through about 2:30pm, the heavens just opened up here.
13.3mm since 7:30am most of it since about 2pm.

Wow thats a lot We get that in 5 minutes here ;)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

The thundery shower this evening produced around 14mm in 30minutes at Massey, West Auckland.

Had brief very heavy rain here, about 7mm.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i could see that on the rain radar....
we only got the edge of it here.....luckily , as the ground is wet enough as it is (81mm for the month already, 95mm thereabouts is the average for october...) and 160mm or so in september....
its been a wet spring so far....the Southerly behind this low should dry things out...
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Unread post by Thunder »

Auckland / Coromandel north looks to be the place for thunderstorms tomorrow (Monday), with the central Northland area looking best, we'll have to wait and see! well you guys up north anyway, not me. The Waikato isn't looking as good anymore, but then what I've said above could change again!

Thats alot of water Brian!

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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by CbFan »

All quiet up here. Some heavy falls at times last night, but nothing of too much interest. Surface flooding across SH 10 coincided with high tide at Kaeo - but floods there are everyday occurrance :)

Had cameras and thermos all ready to go last night to chase some more lightning, but it was a bust. Just as well I s'pose I think that last show has spoilt me for a long time.

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Unread post by Michael »

I am pretty sure the anticyclone and sunshine forecast will be revised again like last week when we were told several days of sunshine and it was only like that last Monday and this week "One" showing yellow "suns"across the region-it looks too W or SW for that as the west continent heats up moving the high northwards :(
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