SI end of this week (20-22nd)

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 17/07/2006 10:37

Hmmm...GASP is showing some pretty chilly temps coming our way. Thickness levels right down, as well, not to mention the 850mb temps.
Seems like that Low over SE Aussie is gonna drag up quite a bit of cold air from the the southern ocean and then REALLY begin to deepen off the SI coast once it crosses...
DEFINITELY worth a watchin' as the week progresses...

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 17/07/2006 11:12

yes cold blast for sure early next week for all, esp the SI

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 17/07/2006 12:10

Indeed looks more vigourous as the mid week approaches

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 17/07/2006 13:33

another nice cold blast on its way indeed better get yourselves ready esp the SI

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Mon 17/07/2006 14:48

Metservice has got down rain, possible snow for thursday in Christchurch

Beat it doesn't happen tho

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 17/07/2006 15:35

Snowlover wrote:Metservice has got down rain, possible snow for thursday in Christchurch Beat it doesn't happen tho

I reckon Mother Nature senses our bad attitudes...I have no proof, of course, other than when we get grumpy in this forum and be negative about things, Mother Nature tends to comply

I say we have a PMA about things in general, not just the weather (possitive mental attitude) and see how it goes (plus you don't stress about it so much)...

Still though, at the end of the day the weather will, however, do whatever the @#$%#@% it feels like doing

.....

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 17/07/2006 16:44

my opinion so far with this icy cold blast coming up, is that lets just see what happens

Metservice is predicting snow to very low levels from wensday, from Canterbury southwards. So heres hoping we might get yet another cold event.

colin manson · Unread post by **colin manson** » Mon 17/07/2006 17:50

hopefuly the low deepens enough to stop high been hind it.
push it north.
that would not be good, but low seem to be side across the north island.
hope it stays lower this time.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 17/07/2006 18:38

I haven't looked at the weather models yet (except for Toni!

) but the next anticyclone looks quite intense, hense the likelyhood of a cold weather event happening

JohnGaul
NZTS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 17/07/2006 18:41

Don't know wether anyone caught my forecast on radio this morning news talk ZB chch between 8-8:30am.
Of course with my predictions of snow lowering to 200m on thursday with some sleet possible to sea level.

Rather be safe in forecasting at this point than to jump the gun early

.
Possibly could be one to watch but you know what lows are like go anywhere they please.

Cheers
Jason.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 17/07/2006 18:47

Whether weather

Jasestrm wrote:Don't know wether anyone caught my forecast on radio this morning news talk ZB chch between 8-8:30am.
Of course with my predictions of snow lowering to 200m on thursday with some sleet possible to sea level.
Rather be safe in forecasting at this point than to jump the gun early .
Possibly could be one to watch but you know what lows are like go anywhere they please.
Cheers
Jason.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 17/07/2006 20:09

Dont really see much of a snow event down to low levels, Most of the rain will fall over wednesday and then clear thursday lunchtime, clearing then a few showers friday afternoon and into the night.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 17/07/2006 20:57

Could be a warm advective snow event for inland Canterbury or somewhere further north but this is difficult to forecast with any confidence.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 17/07/2006 21:26

It could be a quick passover this time with an enlongated SW flow as the intense anticyclone slowly moves towards us.
North of the Hinds River should cop most of it.
It definately will be cold so thank goodness I've ordered another truckload of firewood that should arrive tomorrow.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 17/07/2006 22:40

Mentioning that swear word

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:It could be a quick passover this time with an enlongated SW flow as the intense anticyclone slowly moves towards us.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 17/07/2006 22:57

Michael wrote:Mentioning that swear word
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:It could be a quick passover this time with an enlongated SW flow as the intense anticyclone slowly moves towards us.

JohnGaul
NZTS

SW isn't a swear word Michael

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 17/07/2006 23:11

Jasestrm wrote:Of course with my predictions of snow lowering to 200m on thursday with some sleet possible to sea level.
Rather be safe in forecasting at this point than to jump the gun early

We'll re-visit this one on Thursday then...

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Tue 18/07/2006 06:54

I love this! Everyone's putting their cards down! Personally i'm going to use reverse psychology on the weather this time and say IT WON'T SNOW! There, i've done it! I'm doing an ambo shift on thursday in Rangiora so rain will be just fine!

Snowlover · Unread post by **Snowlover** » Tue 18/07/2006 11:37

[quote="Snowlover"]Metservice has got down rain, possible snow for thursday in Christchurch

Beat it doesn't happen tho

[/quote]

No possible snow in Christchurch forecast now! Nothing is going to happen is my bet. Just rain

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 18/07/2006 13:40

Looking at the sat loops for the past 24 hours or so, the Tasman and Southern Ocean look "eerily" familiar...dare I say it, similar to the June 12th event...
Some differences, though (and I am sure the rest of you will point out others as well

) :
1) The low doesn't seem at this point to be deepening as rapidly as June 12...not a "weather bomb"
2) Temps here on the S. Island are no where near as warm as they were the day before...shoot, I was wearing shorts and mowed my lawn that Sunday!

....other thoughts?

(btw...GFS Meteograms for the current system and compared to the historical runs of Jun12 are similar as well...hmmm.....TonyT?possibly "warm advection" again? What are the odds??)...

Smeagol · Unread post by **Smeagol** » Tue 18/07/2006 13:46

Snowlover wrote:No possible snow in Christchurch forecast now! Nothing is going to happen is my bet. Just rain

Man, don't curse it!

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Tue 18/07/2006 13:48

It's reverse psychology! Geez!

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Tue 18/07/2006 14:50

Bleak day down south, temps in land Otago only just above 0Â°, under fog and overcast skies.

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Tue 18/07/2006 14:56

Andy wrote:Bleak day down south, temps in land Otago only just above 0Â°, under fog and overcast skies.

Same here in CHCH...except slightly warmer

(6.5 right now) But a southerly wind has started in the last hour or so and the fog has actually gotten thicker...just wondering if they have closed CHCH airport yet?

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 18/07/2006 15:26

Bleak in Hamilton too, after river fog, high cloud now and 12Â°C

Looks like NZCH has been closed all morning.
SPECI NZCH 180300Z 21006KT 190V250 0500 FG VV/// 06/06 Q1013 TEMPO 3000 BR BKN004 RMK VIS 0800 RED 0500

Chances of heavy warm-advective snow very much lower comparing with Jun 12. This low holds much more preciptable water with it.. and the cold dry under-cutting wind should arrive much later in comparasion.

NZ Weather Forum

SI end of this week (20-22nd)

SI end of this week (20-22nd)

Similarities to June 12th?