Most recent GFSx run shows snow here in CHCH starting FRI morning....maybe even prior to that?? (thoughts?)
(see attached)
850mb temps pretty cold and thickness levels right down there as well....
By the looks from maps, it would seem a pretty decent trough is modelled to come our way?
Not too sure about how much will accumulate, though...integrate the precip around FRI morning and you get roughly 10 mm=10cm?? (surely it won't all stick) worth of "snow" more or less...the stuff before will be rain/sleet?
Looking pretty good, though...
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Still hovering around 7 degrees in Christchurch. Where's my snow?
Only about 600m away from you...
600m vertically I presume.
Noon map showed that any snow in Canterbury would've been warm advection, as no cold southerly air was over us - the low was to the west and the southerly front was over the far south.
Temperature would need to be 0C or slightly lower I would think of Which I am sure we will see happen .
This will likly be caused by the overnight frosts tomorrow night so a cold start possibly might produce flakes.
Won't be much though just a slight sprinkling enough to go horray for awhile .
I noticed it was starting to spit at midnight last night after looking out my curtains before hitting the sack at half past eleven to see the Fog was thick and still hanging around,
I wonder if the clouds sucked up the moisture from the fog because to my knowledge rain clears fog unless there is a wind about.
Cheers
Jason.
The dewpoint can be used to forecast low temperatures. The low will rarely fall far below the observed dewpoint value in the evening (unless a front brings in a different air mass). Once the temperature drops to the dewpoint, latent heat must be released to the air for the condensation process to take effect. This addition of heat offsets some or all of further cooling. This is especially true for dewpoints above 55 degrees.
If the dewpoint happens to be much lower than the temperature, the air will cool off much more rapidly at night than if the dewpoint was closer to the temperature in the evening. This is why dry regions such as the high plains and desert regions have such large differences between the high and low temperature. Moist areas, such as regions near the coast tend to have a smaller spread between the high and low temperature. If the air has a high moisture content, some longwave radiation emitted by the earth's surface will be radiated back toward the surface.
this was the problem this morning the dewpoint wes 5c and 5c (temp)
is what we got ,with 100% Humidity
Looks like on the Hanmer springs webcam that they got a sleetly snowfall last night going by the roofs. I say sleetly because it wasn't cold enough for snow going by the webcam temps
i see MS are still saying a few showers, becoming squally tonight with southwesterlies - 6° frost this morning with wall to wall blue skies and northerly quarter winds right now. What happened to the words 'fine at first'?
A front is forecast to rapidly sweep over the South Island overnight and early
Friday and then cross the North Island during the afternoon. The front is
followed by bitterly cold air with snow showers expected to near sea level over
eastern parts of the South Island and to unusually low levels over the south and
east of the North Island.
At this stage, snowfall amounts are not expected to be large, with 5cm possible
in some places. However, the combination of snow, bitterly cold air and strong
southerly winds is likely to put extreme stress on newly born lambs and calves
as well as recently shorn sheep. Farmers may want to consider holding off any
shearing at this time and relocating livestock to areas sheltered from strong
southerly winds.
Also, with snow likely to such low levels, many roads could be affected, not
just the usual high country ones. Hence, people considering travelling in
these areas tomorrow may want to reconsider their plans and/or take necessary
measures to help safeguard themselves during their journey.
Spike, and anyone else for that matter: If you are going to paste in quotations could you please indicate where they are from. That way we dont think you wrote it all yourself, and helps us avoid strife from the copyright holder (in this case I suspect its Metservice?). Thanks.
looks like tomorrow is going to be the day! Forecast for Christchurch showers with snow flurries
Looks like a situation where Chch and Dunedin are more likely to get hit, rather than Timaru and inland areas of Canterbury, the areas that suffered on June 12th.
Snow to 300m in southern and central North Island - now that's a major icy blast.
From Taranaki and Taihape to Kapiti Coast
Rain today. Very cold and showery tomorrow, with snow lowering to 300 metres.
For Gisborne
Rain developing tonight, turning to showers tomorrow, with snow above 500 metres.
From Hawkes Bay to Wellington
Rain today, with some heavy falls and southerly gales. Becoming very cold and showery tomorrow, with snow lowering to 300 metres.
For Marlborough and Canterbury
Cloudy periods, with coastal showers. Very cold southerlies tomorrow with snow to near sea-level.
For Otago, Southland and Fiordland
Showers developing tonight with hail and snow to sea-level. Showers easing and retreating to the south coast during Friday. (Metservice)
Gosh snow to 300 metres in the NI and to sealevel in the usuall places in the SI enjoy
It's hardly tropical in Chch today - only about 5C now. Dull until about early/mid afternoon, but only a bit of slight drizzle. Since then it has brightened up a bit, the sun even coming out briefly, but with some light showers as well.
hmmm with all these forcasts tomorrow sounds like a great day. Wether it will come or not we will have to wait and see but it does sound promising. Whats Tonys latest impression on this cold blast to hit us tomorrow?
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